Jason Wood's Thoughts

"Just call me 7-Eleven; because I'm always open" - Chad Johnson

Chad Johnson has emerged as one of the best at his position. He is on a short list of receivers who could challenge the upper echelon of receivers: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt; and should be a Pro Bowl fixture for many years to come. Johnson is a fluid route runner who turned himself into the penultimate professional after his idol, Jerry Rice. Always possessing the physical skills needed to dominate, Johnson realized that mental preparation and focus were equally important. In the last few years, Johnson has taken to sleeping at the Bengals facility twice a week to study film, and had a $30,000 film room installed at his home. His offseason workouts are the stuff of legend, again emulating his mentor.

Last season Chad Johnson showed why he's one of the best all-around players at his position:

• 8th in receptions (90)


• 4th in receiving yards (1,355)


• 6th in passing targets (154)


• 2nd in goal line receptions (7)


• 1st in goal line receiving TDs (4)


• 3rd in redzone receptions (12)


• 8th in redzone targets (19)


• 3rd in redzone receiving TDs (6)


• 12th in yards per reception (15.1)


• 10th in YAC (367 yards)


• 5th in "big catches" (12)


• 4th in receiving first downs (66)


• 3rd longest reception of the season (82 yards)

There is no overt weakness in Johnson's game. He's got the speed to beat receivers deep, the hands to make catches in traffic, the crispness in his routes to keep defenders guessing, the ability to make plays in space after catching the ball, a propensity to keep the chains moving, and a knack for scoring from anywhere on the field.

The ONLY reason someone should think Chad Johnson won't be among the best WRs in the league would be because of the starting quarterback situation. Jon Kitna, despite throwing for nearly 3,600 yards and 26 touchdowns, was benched for 2nd year (and 1st overall draft choice) Carson Palmer. Palmer has the requisite pedigree to be an elite NFL passer, but history hasn't been particularly kind to first year starters.

Why you need not worry about Carson Palmer

I have trouble understanding why so many people are scared off by the prospect of Carson Palmer quarterbacking for the Bengals. Palmer, the 1st overall pick last year, was named the starter this offseason in an attempt to diffuse any potential QB controversy between he and Jon Kitna. Yet, some have cited the worry that Palmer will hinder Johnson's production. I just don't see that happening for a number of reasons. 1) If Palmer is as good as Marvin Lewis expects, there will be little if any drop off from Kitna's performance of a year ago. In that situation, Chad Johnson will be the recipient of a ton of Palmer's passes; and the fantasy world will be happy. 2) If Palmer does struggle, the coaching staff has made it clear Palmer in on a short leash; Kitna will be reinserted into the lineup before you can say "waiver wire." In either scenario, Chad Johnson will be catching passes from a capable passer.

Positives

• Johnson has developed into one of the most complete receivers in the league, and he has a tireless work ethic (modeled after Jerry Rice) to go along with his physical ability



• Palmer throws an excellent deep ball; which could lead to even more yardage and quick scoring strikes



• The Bengals offense is balanced enough that defenders can't consistently double team Johnson

Negatives

• Carson Palmer may be hard pressed, in his first year as a starter, to duplicate the accomplishments of Jon Kitna



• Johnson's penchant for celebration and showmanship put him at risk for retaliatory action by opposing players

Final Thoughts

If you pass up on the Moss/Harrison/Holt triumvirate in the first two rounds, Chad Johnson warrants consideration in the 3rd or 4th round as your top receiver. He's young and has the makings of a perennial All Pro. Certainly Carson Palmer's presence alters the risk assessment; but not enough to ignore Johnson's abilities on draft day. Remember that if Palmer struggles, Kitna will play and that can only be good for Johnson (look at last season). If you're satisfied with your RB situation after the first few rounds, Johnson makes a ton of sense as a 3rd/4th round pick. Draft accordingly.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Chad Johnson has become one of the league's premier deep threats, and might become an even more dangerous receiver with strong-armed QB Carson Palmer at the helm. Jon Kitna let the Bengals to a .500 season last year (their best win percentage since 1996) with an impressive 3,591 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, but he lacks Palmer's superior arm and accuracy on deep throws. Palmer will make his share of first-year mistakes, but he is also the right man for the job of getting Chad Johnson the ball downfield.

Johnson is coming off a 1,355-yard, 10-touchdown performance that landed him in the Pro Bowl last year, and early reports indicate that he looks even better this year. He explodes off the line of scrimmage, and is effective on short slant routes as well as deep sideline patterns. He also shows terrific hands and concentration and will make the tough catch over the middle in traffic.

Positives

• Fantastic athlete with speed, jumping ability, and hands



• With Corey Dillon gone, Chad Johnson becomes the star of the offense and will get plenty of looks



• New starting QB Carson Palmer throws an excellent deep ball, which matches Johnson's skill set very well

Negatives

• WRs Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington continue to develop, and could start to steal targets from Johnson



• Johnson has only had two good seasons so far, so he is less established (and therefore less of a sure thing than) than most second-round fantasy WRs from the last few years



• If the Bengals continue to improve as a team, they will not have to come from behind as often, and their passing attempts may decrease in number

Final Thoughts

The only thing not to like about Chad Johnson is his draft position. He's been going in the late second round of many 12-team drafts, which means you'll have to hold off on getting your second RB if you want to lock up Chad Johnson. If I'm going to take a wide receiver in the second round, I usually want him to be someone with many years of studliness - someone like Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, or Torry Holt. Chad Johnson has only two years of studliness, making him a bit riskier than the other players I just mentioned. (Compare Chad Johnson's first three years to David Boston's, for example, or to Plaxico Burress's. Then look at Boston's and Burress's fourth years.) On the other hand, many of the running backs being selected in the second round this year - D. Davis, T. Henry, M. Faulk, R. Johnson, S. Davis, M. Bennett, T. Barber - come with their own risks, so a sure thing in the late second round just isn't an option . . . unless you draft a QB (Culpepper, Manning), which has its own set of drawbacks.

All things considered, therefore, I believe Chad Johnson is being drafted right about where he should be: if you get a top RB in the first few picks of the draft, do not shy away from selecting Chad Johnson at the end of the second round if all the RBs you like are off the board.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

fightingillini:
"Chad Johnson has stud WR talent....has good hands, great speed, runs good routes, and has a big desire to succeed. We will see if he has the same rapport with Carson Palmer that he had with Jon Kitna. CIN sched is brutal...so I can't see Johnson repeating his numbers from last year. Will be overvalued this year in many drafts."

Fallerjw:
"The Bengals passing game will have a slight drop in numbers this year, but I think Kelley Washington will increase his numbers. If both of those are going to happen somebody is going to have some production drop.....CJ and Warrick are going to."

ProudestMonkey:
"With Rudi and Perry to keep the running game stable, I don't see Palmer being an issue. From watching the pre-game warm ups at the stadium last season, you could see Palmer get more comfortable with the receivers and the play calling. I look for the CIN offense to turn it up a notch, not due so much to their improvement, but the improvement of the CIN D allowing for the offense to spend more time on the field."

IvanKaramazov:
"Nobody seems to be seriously disputing the fact that Chad Johnson is extraordinarily talented and is a blue chip NFL WR. The only concerns seem to involve Carson Palmer. Since I think these concerns are overblown, I think many of you are actually undervaluing Johnson."

Harv72b:
"A lot of people seem to be downgrading Chad Johnson (or at least, his numbers) this season because Carson Palmer is taking over under center. To do so ignores several key facts:

1) Johnson is the real deal. He's fast, he's strong, he has great hands, and he's as cocky as any player in the NFL. He wants to do well, and he wants to win. He will make sure that Palmer doesn't forget he's out there, and if the youngster struggles, the team will come up with plays to get the ball into his hands.

2) Chad Johnson is consistent. I put that word in italics because it's not one you often see associated with a wide receiver, but look at what he did in 2003: The Baltimore Ravens shut him down to the tune of 2 receptions for 15 yards in week 14. What's the big deal about that? That was the first time last season that Johnson was held under 50 yards receiving in a game (59, to be technical).

3) One of the biggest complaints you'll hear about young, first year starters at QB is that they tend to lock on to a single target too often in the passing game. All due respect to Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington, but who do you think he'll be looking to whenever he needs a first down or a big play?"

Chad Johnson Projections