Jason Wood's Thoughts

Chad Pennington has just about everything you would want in a franchise quarterback:

• Size (6'3", 225 lbs.)


• Precision (66% completion percentage)


• Productivity (2.1:1 TD-to-INT ratio)


• Intangibles (Film study maniac, Universally praised by coaches and teammates)

...and has shown himself capable of being an effective fantasy QB, finishing 8th in fantasy points per game in 2002, his first chance at starting. That year, he also led the league in completion percentage and the Jets appeared primed for a monster 2003. Yet, a broken wrist in the preseason derailed the Jets and Pennington's season. Despite coming back for the final 10 games, the team never regained the preseason promise, and Pennington failed to capture the magic of 2002. On the year, he was:

• 189 for 297 (63.6%)


• 2,139 yards (213.9 per game)


• 7.2 YPA


• 13 touchdowns


• 12 interceptions

Projected over a full season, his numbers would look like 3,422 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and 19 interceptions; good but not great numbers.

Is the injury a concern? - In 2004, Pennington will attempt to play a full 16 game schedule for the first time in his career. He shouldn't be considered any more of an injury risk than other starting quarterback; the wrist injury was a clean break and his wrist will have been healed for more than 8 months by the time training camp starts.

Will Justin McCareins improve the passing game? - A definitive yes. While I'm not expecting McCareins to light the world on fire, he should be a substantive improvement over Curtis Conway. The idea that his game (which is predicated on getting deep) doesn't play into Pennington's talents because of arm strength belies the data; Pennington's career YPA of 7.5 is among the best in the league, and he's got more arm strength than QBs like Tom Brady & Jake Delhomme, yet no one holds that against them.

What about the offensive line? - The Jets have one of the best centers in the league (Kevin Mawae) and solid yet unspectacular tackles (McKenzie and Fabini). At guard, it seemed like there would be some question marks until the team signed Pete Kendall a week into training camp. Kendall is a proven veteran who was released by Dennis Green in Arizona for off-the-field issues (Kendall reportedly complained to the NFL about Green's practice methods). Kendall's signing allows Brandon Moore and Brent Smith to compete at the other guard spot; with the loser adding valuable depth.

OK, so Pennington is a talented passer, a hard worker, who should at worst put up 3,400+ yards and 20+ touchdowns...so he's a solid fantasy QB1 right? - Not so fast. I currently project Pennington to throw for 3,525 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions along with de minimous rushing yardage; 269 fantasy points using Footballguys scoring. That equates to QB14 in my projections; more akin to a better QB2 than an every week fantasy starter. One has to remember that talent aside; the Jets don't pass a ton. In the last two seasons the Jets have averaged 491 passing attempts (24th in the NFL). Barring a major upturn in passing attempts, it will be difficult if not impossible for Pennington to break into the upper echelon of fantasy QBs.

Positives

• One of the most accurate passers in the game



• The addition of Justin McCareins (and to a lesser extent TE Mikhael Ricks) improves the receiving corps



• The Jets may be open to increasing the pass/run ratio as Curtis Martin enters the twilight of his career and Pennington establishes himself as the focal point of the offense
  

Negatives

• The Jets have been very conservative under OC Paul Hackett, averaging less than 500 passing attempts per season



• Pennington isn't mobile, and the Jets offensive line has question marks along the interior; which could be a deadly combination



• Beyond the starters (Moss and McCareins), the WR depth is limited

Final Thoughts

Chad Pennington is among the elite pure passers in the league today. I believe he would be as productive as the likes of Trent Green, Tom Brady or Brad Johnson if put into similar offensive systems. Unfortunately for Pennington supporters, he plays for a team that is loathe to throw the ball more than 500 times a season and gets his plays from notably conservative OC Paul Hackett. Pennington's talents, high completion percentage, and solid starting WR duo will translate into a handful of very good games, but he'll also have games where his numbers are pedestrian. I would be shocked if Pennington weren't among the top 10-15 fantasy QBs this year when all is said and done, but I don't see him having upside beyond that level; which means he's better suited to be a QB2 in redraft leagues. Since he's currently the 7th QB off the board according to Antsports, Pennington may be better left to someone else. Draft accordingly.

Mike Brown's Thoughts:

There is little doubt that Chad Pennington is one of the league's top quarterbacks when discussing the intangible qualities one must possess.

He demonstrates tremendous leadership capabilities, absolute precision passing, a fine touch, a smart, efficient style, and an innate ability to make plays.

All of that is terrific, but the fantasy-minded football fan is looking for a little something more. That's not to say Pennington isn't a fine fantasy quarterback, but let's not get him confused with the elite just yet.

In ten games last season (9 starts), Pennington put up respectable numbers (2,139 yards, 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions). And we must keep in mind that one of those 9 starts was a late-season disaster against the Patriots which saw Pennington throw five interceptions. Pennington's QB rating for the season was a solid 82.9, but would have been 93.1 without that Patriots game. Following up on his 104.2 of a year ago, we can see that Pennington is, at the least, an extremely effective player for real football. Now, to the fantasy side of things.

Positives

• Another year with Santana Moss should mean increased comfort level. Moss put up tremendous stats once Pennington got on board, and they demonstrated an outstanding ability to work together



• The addition of Justin McCareins gives Pennington a big target and a redzone weapon



• Potentially playing for a big contract at the end of the year, Pennington almost certainly will be good enough to be worthy of starting on a weekly basis

Negatives

• In the Jets mostly conservative approach, there is little chance for Pennington to be a top-5 quarterback. Since everyone knows about him and knows how good he is, however, his draft spot will probably be higher than someone who puts up equally good numbers but doesn't have the name (Brad Johnson, Jeff Garcia, Jake Plummer)



• Let's not forget that this is still a player who threw 13 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions a year ago. For all the good surrounding him, and his solid comeback from a bad wrist injury, Pennington was still merely adequate last season



• The contract issue, while a potentially good thing, could also become a detriment if it becomes a distraction to him and the team

Final Thoughts

Sometimes, a player is so good for his actual NFL team that it can cloud someone's judgment on how good of a fantasy player he is. That can especially be said about a number of quarterbacks, including Troy Aikman, Joe Montana, and Tom Brady, three of the most successful quarterbacks of all time. None of them put up gaudy numbers on a regular basis, but all have reputations for being amongst the best. Try not to let Pennington's on-field success cloud your judgment when it comes time to draft him. And, I might add, that time shouldn't come before Round 6 of a typical 12-team draft. Remember, you aren't drafting the player - just numbers. My belief is that Pennington will live up to a high draft slot and perform very well this season, but there might not be much value because it'll be difficult for him to exceed the draft slot by a ton.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"So with a WR corps that has perilous depth at best...is Pennington in a position where he can be counted on as a #1 QB for the duration of the 2004 season? My initial inkling is no...don't forget, Chrebet caught 8 of Pennington's 22 TD passes in 2002. If McCareins can quickly establish himself as a consistent red zone target...then maybe Chad does have a big year. Moss is more of a big play TD guy. But the long history of WRs struggling with new teams works against this duo and in reality, McCareins big year was one with 813 yards and 7 TDs If his name were Peerless Price, this would be classified as a non-event...even a so-what year."

BigRed:
"His nearly equal TD/INT ratio last year worries me. Is that the "real" Pennington, or is it the one from the year before? You can talk about how he was rushed back etc, but I'm not convinced either way."

loser:
"Pennington's arm strength, while dismissed by some, is at issue here. Defenses last year were successful against him by goading him into making throws downfield that he flat out didn't have the arm strength to pull off. His completion percentage dropped, along with Yards per Attempt, and his INT ratio was 4%. For comparison sake, Jake Plummer's only had two seasons with a worse ratio. And before you scream, "but five of those were in one game vs. the Super Bowl champs", keep in mind they still show up twice on the schedule, just like every other year, with Belichick on the sidelines in his snazzy hooded sweatshirt."

Phlash:
"Pennington is going to have a huge year. If his O-line gels (a big if, however) he will start putting up Peyton Manning like numbers. He makes that offense better, and while he doesn't have as good of arm strength as Peyton, his arm strength is underrated (his career yards per attempt is a staggering 7.5 yards). The injury this year threw him off, but he is a smart QB who is probably the most accurate guy in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up 4000 yards."

KevT:
"Herm Edwards is the only thing limiting the success of Pennington. Edwards will sometimes rely to heavily on Grandpa Martin when Pennington is the better option to move the ball.

I might be too optimistic but I really think that Pennington is one of the better QBs in the league and I think he will finish in the top 5 this year."

Chad Pennington Projections