Jason Wood's Thoughts

With the success of fellow rookie receivers Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson, it's easy to forget that Charles Rogers was the first receiver off the board in last year's NFL draft; recall that the Lions made Rogers the 2nd overall pick out of Michigan State. Rogers started right away, and was expected to provide 2nd year QB Joey Harrington with a weapon in the passing game. After an auspicious Week 1 against the Cardinals (4 catches for 38 yards and 2 touchdowns), Rogers plodded along with another four weeks of yeoman-like effort; but he failed to display the game breaking ability that was so evident in his collegiate days. Then, in Week 5, Rogers suffered a broken collarbone and was sidelined for the remainder of the season.

While I don't dispute for a second that Rogers has the physical ability, the route running technique or the hands to excel in the NFL over the course of his career, I'm not sure I share the lofty expectations that others have of him for 2004. His current average draft position (21st WR according to Antsports) suggests many expect Rogers to be a solid every week fantasy WR2; I just don't see that happening for a myriad of reasons.

1. Joey Harrington - Maybe I'm wrong, but I've seen NOTHING from Joey Harrington in his first two seasons to suggest there's a hint of playmaking ability. His first two seasons are among the very worst statistically of any quarterback in NFL history. In fact, his 5.3 yards per attempt is the worst in league history for someone with as many starts. Yes, I know Harrington is young, has the physical tools and projected as a franchise caliber player coming out of Oregon. I'm also cognizant of the fact that Harrington was flush with offensive weapons. However, far lesser QBs have had woeful teams and done more with them. While I believe Harrington HAS to improve given the cornucopia of new offensive options at his disposal, I believe at best there will be major ups and downs in his play; some weeks providing Charles Rogers with enough passes to produce, while other weeks Rogers will be left high and dry.



2. New offensive additions - Much maligned GM Matt Millen may have saved his career this offseason. Harrington's play aside, the team upgraded offensively with the additions of RB Kevin Jones, WR Roy Williams, WR Tai Streets, OG Damien Woody and TE Stephen Alexander. While these guys make for an improved Lions team potentially, it also means Harrington won't (or at least shouldn't) focus exclusively on Rogers as he was apt to do last season. Fewer targets equal fewer opportunities.



3. Rogers healing factor - Injuries are very hard to predict, and thus my standard advice is to not try. That said, Rogers concerns me not because I expect him to get injured again but because he had such a difficult time revering from his broken collarbone. Many observers believed that Rogers should have healed far sooner than he did (at press time Rogers had just declared himself pain free some nine months later); so what happens if (when) Rogers suffers another ache or pain?

Positives

• Rogers is a complete receiver - great hands, good deep speed, solid route running, good body control, unafraid of contact



• Defensive secondaries can no longer solely focus on Rogers with the additions of Roy Williams, Tai Streets and Stephen Alexander



• Rogers was among the most targeted receivers in the NFL last year

Negatives

• Joey Harrington is a major question mark at quarterback, and backup Mike McMahon is even more worrisome



• The presence of Roy Williams could relegate Rogers to 2nd fiddle; Williams pedigree is as good



• He took much longer than expected to heal from his broken bone; is that a sign of things to come?

Final Thoughts

As a player, I think the world of Charles Rogers. He was unbelievable in college, a human highlight reel who made plays despite a troublesome situation at quarterback and knowing full well that opposing defenses were keying on him. With that in mind, I believe he's able to make plays when given the opportunity, despite my lack of faith in Joey Harrington. However, I don't see Rogers being targeted nearly as often as he was last year with Roy Williams, Tai Streets, Stephen Alexander and RB Kevin Jones in town. The Lions offense ranked dead last in 2003, and what's worse, the passing game ranked 27th despite the team taking the 4th most passing attempts. Rogers may be the beneficiary of a few big games this year, and is worth having on your roster - however, his current ADP of 21 suggests he'll be an every week contributor and there's no way that can happen this year, in my view. I would pass on him unless he falls into the middle of your draft.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Rogers was the number 2 pick overall in the 2003 NFL draft, and has excellent speed and overall athleticism. Before breaking his collarbone in the fifth game last year, he showed big-play ability (3 TDs, including two in first game), and caught at least four passes in every game he played in. He has good size and adjusts well to the ball in the air. This year he will be paired with rookie first-round pick Roy Williams, who has a similar size-speed combination to that of Rogers, making it difficult for defenses to match up with the duo. Rogers has the quickness and moves to beat man coverage, along with the height and leaping ability to be a force in the red zone.

His skinny build makes durability a concern, and like most young receivers, he will have occasional lapses in concentration and will drop some easy balls.

Rookie RB Kevin Jones, rookie WR Roy Williams, and free agent acquisition TE Stephen Alexander are all talented athletes who should help the Lions' offense improve this year. That should help Charles Rogers, since the more often the offense can get down into the red zone, the more opportunities Rogers will have to score touchdowns.

Positives

• Has complete package of size, speed, quickness, leaping ability, and hands
• Rogers is a particularly effective redzone target
• Additional surrounding talent should help the Lions' offense in general this year

Negatives

• Still very inexperienced; may not be completely adjusted to the NFL game
• QB Harrington has performed poorly so far in his career
• Has a thin build and may be injury-prone

Final Thoughts

Charles Rogers is going too high in drafts this year for my tastes. In 12-team leagues, he is going about the same place as Amani Toomer: right at the end of the fifth round. Through the first five weeks of 2003, Rogers was the 23rd best fantasy receiver in terms of points per game, but he is the 21st WR taken in drafts this year, on average, going several full rounds ahead of such proven receivers as Marty Booker and Rod Smith. He is also going a few rounds ahead of Donte' Stallworth, who is every bit the athlete Rogers is, whose injury-shortened rookie year was just as impressive as Rogers's was, and who is a year ahead of Rogers in his development as an NFL player. For all the talent and potential Rogers has, he is still an unproven player with only five professional games under his belt. I believe he carries too much risk for his current average draft position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

NumbCruncher:
"The Detroit Lions have too many new and inexperienced players on offensive for any of them to post big numbers. They have some great pieces on this team that if they stay together forever will post some impressive numbers, but not this year. Look for the Lions to gel late in the year and start to take off getting ready for 2005."

gman8343:
"I'm still not sold on Harrington yet, so it's tough for me to jump on the Charles Rogers bandwagon. He's got talent to burn, but he may not even be the best WR on the team. That said, the pieces of the puzzle are coming together, and if Harrington is able to bring a little consistency to the QB position he's got a shot to do some damage. Still, I think we're one more year away from Rogers (and the Lions) truly becoming an offensive threat."

KKrew:
"Rogers got off to a nice start last season and then got shelved with an injury. The Lions added Roy Williams & Kevin Jones. Harrington, Williams, Jones & Rogers would seem to be the building blocks of a solid offense. For 2004 I see a nice improvement, especially considering it'll be Year 2 of the Mooch."

diesel7982:
"I'm surprised by the love for Rogers.

65/850/5...sadly the #1 WR for the Lions with those stats. The Lions are a QB and a year of experience for their skill starters away from a very solid offense."

jurb26:
"Here is how I look at it. He is right on par with Williams physically but one (or half if you choose) NFL season more polished. Granted it wasn't a whole season of play, but he did still get to see live NFL action and will have learned from it. Williams will immediately demand attention from Ds easing the threat of constant doubles. Add with it an actual threat in the running game with Jones and suddenly the field seems a bit more open for a WR with great playmaking ability."

Charles Rogers Projections