Jason Wood's Thoughts

Last year, I pointed out that Charlie Garner was under valued based on the premise that he had enjoyed 3 top 10 fantasy seasons in four years, and finished no worse than 17th despite playing for 3 teams and 3 different head coaches. So of course, as fate would have it, Garner goes on to have a disappointing year finishing a distant 31st among fantasy RBs.

With Oakland reloading behind a new head coach, Charlie Garner exercised his right to become a free agent and quickly signed with Jon Gruden, his original Raiders head coach. Upon that signing, most assumed Garner would be the new workhorse in Gruden's WCO; and Garner's current draft position presumes that; Garner is going 22nd among RBs (in the 4th round of 12-team mock drafts).

Can Garner still put together fantasy RB2 numbers playing for his 4th team?

• Gruden is a big fan - This is the 3rd time Jon Gruden has coached Charlie Garner, first as an assistant coach in Philadelphia and then twice as head coach. What's more, Gruden recruited Garner to Tampa Bay, signing him to a six-year $23 million deal. That's not the kind of contract you give a 32-year old back if you're planning on keeping him on the bench.



• Michael Pittman, the Bucs' de facto incumbent, is facing a mandatory 3-game suspension to start the season. That means Garner is all but assured of the first crack at being the feature back; whether he loses that job (or has to split duties) with Pittman remains to be seen, Gruden has kept those views close to the vest.



• Brad Johnson is an accurate QB (61.8% career passer) who has thrown 48 touchdowns the past two seasons under Gruden. With the departure of Keyshawn Johnson and the protracted holdout of Keenan McCardell, there are receptions to be had. Remember, the Bucs have finished among the top 3 in passing attempts two of the last three seasons. This all stands to help Garner's workload, as his main asset is his ability as a receiver out of the backfield.



• Red zone touches will be few and far between - Don't count on Garner getting many looks in the red zone if past history is any indication. In his one season under Gruden in Oakland, Garner rarely got red zone carries, and finished the season with 1 rushing touchdown and 2 receiving scores. With the presence of Mike Alstott and Michael Pittman, I would be surprised if Garner was all of the sudden used in red zone situations.



• What about the offensive line? - Tampa Bay underwent major changes on the offensive line this offseason. Veterans Derrick Deese, Todd Steussie, Matt O'Dwyer and Matt Stinchcomb were added to provide competition with holdovers Kerry Jenkins, Jason Whittle, and Kenyatta Walker. Well, sometimes quality is better than quantity. Most of these veterans were available for a reason, that age and injury no longer justified their existing contracts. If the beginning of training camp is any indication, Tampa Bay could be in for another long season as most of the new additions have been hobbled. Stay tuned to this, without solid improvement (and cohesion) on the line, the Bucs prospects (including Garner) will take a tumble.

Positives

• Is an excellent receiver and a good fit for the Bucs offensive scheme; Garner's worth increases in leagues that reward 1 point per reception



• Early reports from camp suggest Garner has his burst back, an important development considering his offseason knee surgery



• The Bucs need someone to rack up yardage between the 20s, and Garner will get an opportunity to lay claim to the job while Pittman serves his suspension

Negatives

• Michael Pittman will return for the final 13 games and has been running with the first team offense during training camp



• Garner has never had more than 258 carries in a season and has averaged 167 carries per 16-games



• At 32 years old, a part time player, coming off knee surgery, joining his 4th team, expecting a resurgence may be expecting too much

Final Thoughts

I'm a fan of Charlie Garner and lobbied for him last year as a fantasy sleeper. But the Raiders collapse left no player unharmed and Garner broke his streak of consecutive top 20 finishes. Can he get his mojo back with the Bucs, reuniting with Jon Gruden? I'm not sure. But when you combine his age, his inability to foster a full workload, his knee injury, his change of venue, the Bucs RB depth, and the state of the Bucs offensive line, I see way too many risks to draft Garner as my RB2. If you can roster him as your RB3 or RB4 (unlikely given his current draft position), I like the risk/reward but having to count on him all season long? No thanks, that's for another league mate to worry about.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Charlie Garner vacated the Raiders in free agency and reunited with former Oakland head coach Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay. That was a good move because the Buccaneers were left with a rushing game hole when Thomas Jones left for Chicago. Garner will probably step directly into Jones' 2003 role. That means he will be the primary rusher and will be expected to be a "spark plug" to both the ground game and the passing game.

The problem is that Gruden was perfectly happy splitting Garner's carries in Oakland with Tyrone Wheatley, and Garner faces similar competition for carries from Mike Alstott and Michael Pittman. Alstott is returning from a neck injury and hopes to recapture the "rumbling stumbling" bowling ball role that made him a Chris Berman favorite on the highlight reel. Pittman showed remarkable receiving ability as he hauled in 75 catches for 597 yards and two TDs. Hey! Those are Garner numbers through the air! Garner is known best for his #9 ranked RB 2002 fantasy season where he ran for 900 yards, received for 900 yards, was an exciting player to watch, and scored 11 touchdowns.

After a disappointing 2003, Garner is looking to revive that excitement in Tampa Bay and become a total yardage back again. Luckily, that #9 fantasy back season occurred under Gruden. Also, luckily, if you add up Pittman's '03 receptions with Thomas Jones' '03 receptions, you see that Gruden threw to those two backs alone 99 times. Add in the 39 passes that went to other running backs, and that is plenty of opportunity for Garner to recapture lofty reception numbers.

On the ground, Tampa Bay running backs rushed 389 times in 2003, with Pittman and Jones obviously taking the bulk of those numbers. That is a typical Gruden rush count for his backs. Even though Gruden likes to filter in backs throughout the game, it is not outside the world of possibilities that, even with an Alstott/Garner/Pittman split of carries, that Garner can end up with nearly 200 carries (12.5 carries/game) and over 70 receptions (4 or 5 receptions a game) in a 16 game season. Given that, Garner should make for a viable total yardage RB2 that will consistently put up between 80 and 100 yards of total offense and, with that many touches, he should score TDs often enough that he will be hard to keep out of your lineup.

The best part of Charlie Garner's situation is that he, Pittman, and Alstott are pretty much "it" for the running game. If the running game is shut down, Gruden loves to air it out with Brad Johnson. Despite a slew of receivers on the Bucs, Garner is clearly the best of the three backs to catch passes if the running game is shut down. In short, he will certainly be used, and possibly used extensively, as long as he is on the field.

He has as good a fantasy outlook as the other backs facing a total yardage situation and carry/touchdown vultures - Duce Staley and Brian Westbrook being the other two who are most similar to Garner. All three of these backs should be ranked in the same area on your ranking sheet, and they should be drafted fairly close to one another in most redrafts. Garner holds great value in pt/rec. leagues, but, since he is 32 years old, he does not have much value in keeper or dynasty leagues as this could easily be his last or second to last year as a viable NFL starting back.

Positives

• Obviously still has enough of his talent intact that Jon Gruden acquired him in free agency to replace Thomas Jones and did not acquire any other backs



• Is an all-around back, who will rack up yardage for you on a weekly basis



• Has shown an ability to create fantasy numbers despite never having carried the ball more than 258 times.

Negatives

• Age: at 32 years old, how much is left in the tank? Then again, low carry numbers for his career could mean a "young" 32



• Competition: Alstott is returning and Pittman will steal some touches if he can stay out of jail



• No long-term value

Final Thoughts

He's that total yardage RB2 you can afford to count on for weekly production. But, he is best if you can snag him as your RB3, maybe for a flex position. I believe Garner will be a productive fantasy player, and will not be a wasted draft pick, but I think he has limited upside, and it is unlikely he will match his high fantasy rankings from 1999, 2000, or 2002. But, he might approximate those numbers. It is a tough call whether he is worth the #22 RB spot he sometimes goes for, but he is unquestionably worth the #25 RB spot if he falls that far in your draft. He is talented, though the talent is fading, and he will be given opportunities with also-aging Alstott and legally troubled Pittman his only competition - that formula of talent + opportunity usually translates into fantasy production for running backs.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click click here.

KKrew:
"I'm high on Garner. Probably higher than most of the sharks that swim in this pool. Why? Gruden went out and got his guy. Pittman will see the first three games from the bench. Alstott is coming off of a serious neck injury. Garner does a great job of catching the ball out of the backfield. McCardell is in Gruden's doghouse. I have Brad Johnson completing 325 passes in 2004."

TheDirtyWord:
"The Bucs offense is predicated on getting the ball out of the QB's hands quickly. Even though their O-Line has been considered amongst the leagues worst, they only allowed 23 sacks last season. Gruden likes to set up his offense in 2nd & 3-4 situations and when he has the talent, loves to use his RB toward that end. It was in fact the last season Gruden coached in Oakland where he really seemed to develop a love for using his RBs as primary receivers.

2001: Garner caught 78 passes
2002: Pittman/Alstott caught 94 passes
2003: Pittman/Alstott/Jones caught 109 passes

What's interesting is that if you compare Pittman's 2003 and Garner's 2001, they had almost identical seasons. Same YPC & YPR averages with similar workloads. Obviously Garner has one of the great all-time seasons in terms of rushing/receiving production balance in 2002 the year after Gruden left, but his offense stayed in Oakland. Could we expect a similar bounce back campaign from Garner in 2004?"

babydemon90:
"I must be the only one who think Pittman will not be merely a backup when he comes back....I see him getting carries, and, more importantly CATCHES, as that is one area of the game he excels in. Garner will get his, but I don't see a 75 catch season everyone is talking about."

Charlie Garner Projections