Jason Wood's Thoughts

Fans of the DaVinci Code can appreciate the conundrum presented by the Cleveland Browns receiving corps. Perhaps Robert Langdon would've been able to decipher the situation but, for me, I need to see the situation play itself out during training camp before my projections are set in stone.

Nevertheless, what we can do is take a top down look at the Cleveland Browns passing offense and then discuss how each of the receivers may or may not fit into the equation based on past performance.

Cleveland Passing Offense

The Browns are undergoing a major overhaul offensively starting at the top with the quarterback and the offensive coordinator. Terry Robiskie, a long time NFL offensive assistant, takes over play calling duties and has vowed to blend a power running attack with a vertical passing game (remember, Robiskie was Oakland's offensive coordinator during the Art Shell era). As to the quarterback, the team severed ties with its "franchise" when Tim Couch signed with the Packers. Enter Jeff Garcia, a three time Pro Bowl quarterback with San Francisco. Garcia is a career 61% passer who is also blessed with a ton of mobility. There's little question that the QB situation is upgraded over the tandem of Couch/Holcomb from the last two seasons.

That's not the only change however. Perhaps the biggest change is the addition of Kellen Winslow Jr., the elite tight end and Browns top draft pick. Winslow is considered the most NFL ready tight end to come into the league in years, if ever, and the coaching staff has openly discussed Winslow as being a critical component to the team's offense; both as a pass catcher and in opening up holes for the running attack.

Assessing Winslow's Impact

Last season, the Browns ranked:

• 24th in passing yards (3,116 yards)
• 20th in touchdowns (17)
• 20th in interceptions (18)
• 27th in rushing attempts (412)
• 20th in rushing yards (1,670)

The team hopes to strike a better balance between the run and the pass, which means one shouldn't expect the team's passing attempts to increase much. The addition of Garcia along with Robiskie's schemes should help increase the passing yards nominally; I currently expect the team to pass for close to 3,300 yards this year.

I believe the coaching staff has been quite clear in its intention of making Kellen Winslow the focal point of the offense sooner rather than later. Yet, as a first year tight end it's silly to project Tony Gonzalez-like numbers. Nevertheless, taking into account my projections for Winslow, the team is left with:

• 3,300 yards passing TOTAL
• Less 625 yards for Winslow
• Less 425 yards for the running backs (catching passes out of the backfield)
• 2,250 yards to distribute among the receiving corps

  "We don't have one receiver who is a blue-chip receiver."

  In a recent article in the Canton Repository, OC Robiskie made the aforementioned reference to his current crop of wide receivers. He went on to say that he expects his receivers to play hard, and to fight through their limitations. But the key question, "who will be the lead receiver" went unanswered.

A quick look at the three leading Browns receivers:

• Andre Davis - (25 years old, 6'1", 195 pounds, 4.4 second 40-yard) - Davis led the Browns with five TD catches in 2003 and was second on the team in receptions (40) and yards (576). Yet, he was very inconsistent, catching just one pass in eight games. Davis showed good hands last year, dropping just one ball in 62 targets. Overall he caught 65% of his intended targets. Antsports Average Draft Position: 11.04 (12 Team Mocks); 43rd WR selected



• Dennis Northcutt - (26 years old, 5'11", 175 pounds, 4.4 second 40-yard) - Northcutt is one of the smaller receivers in the league, but he's blessed with great speed AND was given a lucrative contract this offseason after a botched attempt at free agency. Northcutt led the team in receptions (62) and yards (729) but caught only 2 touchdowns and had the lowest YPC of the trio (11.8). Northcutt has the best hands of the group, dropping just one pass last year and catching 67% of his intended targets. Northcutt is also used for reverses and other trick plays, contributing another 83 yards on the ground last season. Antsports Average Draft Position: 14.11 (12 Team Mocks); 59th WR selected



• Quincy Morgan - (26 years old, 6'1", 215 pounds, 4.4 second 40-yard) - Morgan, who almost had 1,000 yards two years ago, regressed in 2003 finishing with just 38 receptions and 516 yards to go along with 3 TD catches. What's most disturbing is Morgan's inability to make catches on a consistent basis. He dropped 6 passes and caught just 48% of his intended targets. Yet, he's the biggest and possibly the fastest receiver on the team; and it's hard to forget that he's caught 10 touchdowns in the last two seasons. Antsports Average Draft Position: 12.10 (12 Team Mocks); 49th WR selected

Final Thoughts

As you can see, all three are young and possess great speed. Morgan lost some luster among fantasy players because he was a disappointment after being projected as a potential 1,000 yard sleeper last season. Davis, ranked the highest, is considered to have the most "upside" because he's improved every season and is unquestionably one of the starters. Northcutt, by virtue of his lack of size, and his tendency to play the slot in years past, ranks the lowest in mock draft results. So which receiver should you draft?

I believe either Andre Davis or Dennis Northcutt can easily outperform their projected draft position. Do I think either will be a viable top 25 fantasy receiver? Not this year; not with the balance and with Winslow in the lineup. But I think either will see enough passes to make a solid bye week fill in or emergency injury replacement. Morgan is the one I would recommend avoiding. His reception-to-target rate is abysmal and with other more reliable options in the passing game, I worry that Jeff Garcia will quickly stop looking his way. Could he regain the form he showed in 2002 when he was the team's most productive receiver? Possibly, but I'll happily let someone else draft him and take the risk.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

If nothing else, the Cleveland Browns WR corps is filled with mediocre fantasy options. Much like Kansas City, there's a decent chance that the receiver with the most yardage might not even play WR. Although unlikely, rookie TE Kellen Winslow could lead the team in receptions, receiving yards, or TD.

The four primary WR are Andre Davis, Dennis Northcutt, Quincy Morgan, and Andre King. In terms of fantasy value, they all have a face that only a mother could love. Here's a brief review of each of them:

Andre Davis

Davis, 6'1", 195 lbs was a 2nd round draft pick out of Virginia Tech and the 47th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. In his second season, Davis posted 40-576-5 to rank as the #42 WR in 2003. However, he had a single reception in 8 games-not exactly what you want to see from one of your fantasy WR. He stood a decent chance of having the highest upside this season out of this group, but he's already suffered a high ankle sprain and is slated to miss a lot of training camp. High ankle sprains have a tendency to linger and Davis' cutting ability might be diminished for the beginning of the season. On the plus side, his TD ratio over his career is 1 TD for each 7 receptions.

Dennis Northcutt

Northcutt, 5'11". 175 lbs, was a 2nd round pick out of Arizona and the 32nd overall pick in the 2000 draft. Northcutt posted 62-729-2 to rank as the #41 WR in 2003. He had only 9 games of 50+ yards receiving-not exactly what you want to see from one of your fantasy WR. In 55 games played, he's had only 4 games with 10+ fantasy points scored (no points for receptions). He's also only averaged 1 TD for each 22.4 receptions.

Quincy Morgan

For fantasy owners that are looking for consistency, Morgan is not your guy. If you are looking for a home run hitter that strikes out A LOT, Morgan is a good candidate. Morgan, 6'1", 215 lbs was a 2nd round pick out of Kansas State and the 33rd overall pick in the 2001 draft. Morgan seemed primed to be the next big thing as WR go, putting up 56-964-7 to rank as the #20 WR in 2002. That season, he had 17 plays that went for 20+ yards on his way to a 17.2 ypr. Morgan had 5 big weeks (14+ fantasy points scored) but was very average in the others-not exactly what you want to see from one of your fantasy WR. Last year, with anticipation and expectation levels high, Morgan's stock plummeted to 38-516-3 with 12 games of 3 or fewer fantasy points scored.

Andre King

King has the least amount of experience out of the lot. He's had just 25 receptions in 32 games played over 3 seasons with no TD receptions. King, 5'11", 195 lbs, was a 7th round pick out of Miami and the 254th pick overall in the 2001 draft. At this point, he has to be considered a long shot to make a fantasy impact this year.

Positives

• The Browns extricated themselves from the Couch vs. Holcomb debacle over the #1 QB job. Jeff Garcia should be an upgrade and help bring both stability and occasional explosiveness to the offense



• Winslow may attract enough attention for the WR to get open and see less coverage



• RB Jamel White averaged 55 receptions out of the backfield the past two seasons but has moved on to Tampa Bay. Most of those targets should get distributed elsewhere, as neither Suggs nor Green seems to be a great receiver as of yet
  

Negatives

• The Browns offense had very few positives in 2003, ranking 29th in points scored, 24th in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards



• Overall, the talent level here is above average but not phenomenal. None of these guys will ever be mistaken for Randy Moss



• With so many marginal options and limited total production available, there will probably not be enough opportunities to go around and keep everyone happy
  

Final Thoughts

There are several issues here that probably all point to a similar general conclusion. First and foremost, the Browns do not have a very good offense, and while Garcia should help, he will quickly learn that Cleveland is not on par with San Francisco in terms of talent and production.

Second, no one from this group has emerged in the past, and unless Garcia falls in love with a single primary target, the ball will be spread around. If he does fixate on one guy, that guy could just as easily be Winslow and not one of the WR.

The real bottom line is that any of the Cleveland WR are risky plays from week to week and it's doubtful any of them should be considered for a regular starting spot in almost any fantasy league. One of them might get to the point of being worth a WR3 slot, but even that might be pushing it. Better stated, if your team needs to get production on a regular basis from a Cleveland WR, your fantasy WR corps quite possibly is in need of some upgrading.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

koreansteve:
"I expect the Browns to be much improved on offense in 2004, as they acquire a QB in Garcia who will not only provide CLE with a top 10 talent at QB, but one who will give them an undisputed starter around who the team can rally. While the WR situation appears to be a mess right now, I think it will be resolved midway through mini-camp...with A. Davis being the #1 WR and either Morgan or Northcutt being the #2 WR."

KKrew:
"Well, I'll have admit up front that I jumped on the Quincy Morgan band wagon in the 2003 preseason. I had him ranked ranked/projected pretty high going into my drafts last year. However, maybe because subliminally I wasn't sold, I didn't end up owning Morgan last year. Thank God!

Now, in 2004 I'm probably on the ragged edge of sanity with respect to Jeff Garcia expectations. I see the Niner-exile as a great QB option this year - totaling 25 TDs (21 passing) and 3700 yards (3400 passing). Here's how I have the ball distributed to the receivers:

Morgan: 75 rec/1050 yards/6 TDs (#23 on my WR Board)
Davis: 45 rec/540 yards/3 TDs (#55 on my WR Board)
Northcutt: 50 rec/600 yards/4 TDs (#62 on my WR Board)"

beto:
"Wow, some of you are really predicting a breakout by Andre Davis. That would really be a 3rd year classic.

This is a hard trio to get a read on. Couch and Holcomb really made a mess of the passing game last year, which probably messed up the 2003 #s. From what I hear Garcia is communicating a lot more so far in Cleveland than he ever did in SF, which should be a good thing. I think the key will be who he develops some chemistry with in the preseason."

Holy Schneikes:
"If you are a QB or a coordinator, who do you want to throw to, the guy who catches 70% of the passes thrown his way or the guys who catches 40% of the passes thrown his way? Yeah, (Northcutt) is definitely smaller and probably slower than Morgan, but he gets open and can catch, which is pretty much what being an NFL receiver is all about."

Joe T:
"Northcutt = the Hines Ward of the Browns. The guy makes plays; 62 catches last year in 15 games as the number 3 receiver is pretty good.

The Browns are an improving offense (not declining). They have added major weapons with Garcia and Winslow. Suggs showed nice improvement at RB at the end of last season. I expect to see a little bit of a Steelers like situation this year with the Browns; they will have to throw to win games."

Andre Davis Projections

Dennis Northcutt Projections

Quincy Morgan Projections