Jason Wood's Thoughts

Daunte Culpepper is one of my all-time favorite fantasy players. He's been on a good many of my teams each of the last four seasons; as I'm sure has been the case for many of you as well.

For those new to fantasy football, Daunte Culpepper is the gold standard of fantasy quarterbacking. In his 4 seasons as an NFL starter, Culpepper has ranked:

• 1999 - 1st (402 points)


• 2000 - 14th (5th in points per game, he missed 5 games)


• 2001 - 3rd


• 2002 - 1st

While Peyton Manning, Steve McNair and Tom Brady may lay better claim to the NFL's best quarterback, none hold a candle to Culpepper in the fantasy football world. Two of Culpepper's seasons rank among the 20 best ALL TIME for fantasy quarterbacks. What makes Culpepper so remarkable is that he's both a productive and accurate passer…

• 63% career passer


• 243 yards per game


• 7.5 career yards per attempt


• 1.6 passing TDs per game


• 1.1 INTs


• +27 career TD/INT ratio

…AND he's the most productive running QB in the league (arguably 2nd to a healthy Michael Vick)…

• Averaging 96 carries per season


• 5.6 yards per carry


• Averaging 7+ rushing touchdowns per game

Simply put, Culpepper should be the top QB off the board in standard scoring leagues, the only reason to hesitate would be in your league penalizes inordinately for turnovers. What Culpepper contributes in terms of relatively modest INT numbers he gives back in very high fumble totals.

Another consideration with Culpepper is that he's much different than Michael Vick in terms of running the ball. Physically, Culpepper is bigger than most linebackers, weighing almost 260 pounds; he can take plenty of punishment whereas Vick, while even more explosive as a runner, has a slighter build and appears to be able to handle less of a pounding. This is not to say Culpepper won't miss a few games here or there…he missed two games last season with a broken tailbone, and still finished as the top fantasy producer.

Positives

• The most productive fantasy QB in the league barring injury



• Gets to throw to the best WR in the league; and the team is too balanced for defenders to key exclusively on the pass



• The Vikings offensive line is among the NFL's finest units

Negatives

• Culpepper has missed time for a variety of ailments, including a broken tailbone last season



• Including fumbles, Culpepper has a tendency to turn the ball over too much



• You're going to have to draft Culpepper in the 2nd round if you want him, most likely

Final Thoughts

Realize that if you want Daunte Culpepper on your team, you're going to have to roster him in the 2nd round judging by average draft returns (he's going 2.07 in 12-team leagues). Many fantasy owners refuse to consider a QB that early, because they feel it's easier to find top 10 production at the QB position in later rounds, whereas the chances of rostering a top 10 caliber RB past rounds 4 or 5 are slim to none. While I don't necessarily disagree about the scarcity of quality RBs beyond the early rounds, you shouldn't hesitate selecting Culpepper toward the tail end of round 2, and he's an outright steal in the 3rd. Keep in mind that by rostering Culpepper, you're getting approximately 500 rushing yards and 7+ rushing TDs from the QB position; which should more than offset the hit you'll take in grabbing your 2nd RB a round later.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts:

Is there really anything I can tell you about Daunte Culpepper that you don't already know? The analysis of this guy is pretty simple…

1. When he's healthy, he's one of the top-2 quarterbacks in fantasy football, regardless of format.



2. When he's hurt, he can't help you.

Honestly, what else is there to say? Culpepper has finished as the #1 Quarterback in fantasy football in 3 of the last 4 years. He's a threat on the ground, he's got a big-time arm, he's as big as an F-150, and he's behind an extremely good offensive line. Oh yeah, and he gets to throw to Randy Moss. If there's a negative, its that sometimes the Vikings like to run the ball instead of letting C-Pepp throw it on every down. Much beyond that, there's not a lot to criticize.

Positives

• One of the best arms in the league



• Comfortable with the system, which plays to all of his strengths



• Gets to throw to Randy Moss while being protected by a top 5 O-line



• Rushes for TDs and yardage as well as being a darn good passer

Negatives

• Rush TDs took a dip last year, from 10 to 4



• Starts the season against two tough defenses (Dallas and Philly)



• If Moss were to get hurt, his production would likely decline significantly



• Has missed time in the last two seasons to injury. His back seems to be giving his large frame some problems

Final Thoughts

I see no way around declaring that Daunte Culpepper is the best quarterback, from a fantasy perspective, in the game today. At any given time he can break 300 yards in the air, throw 4 TDs, or run a couple in. He simply is a player that transcends position, giving you "points and a half" on his best days. Drafting him for value is a matter of opinion, but he's likely to be worth the trouble in the middle of the second round, if that late.

I would simply offer the following regarding Daunte Culpepper - If you play in a league that penalizes for turnovers, approach Culpepper with caution. There have been instances in his career, short as they may be, where he has been prone to turning the ball over in spurts. Is it enough to jeopardize his number 1 ranking? Of course not. But it CAN be enough of a deterrent to make selecting him in the early to mid second round lose its value. Just be careful. Other than that, you're likely going to end up with the #1 or #2 quarterback in fantasy football. But you already knew that...

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Fallerjw:
"C Pep has been a huge fantasy force for several years. I don't see this year being any different."

meeka
"Living in MN, it is scary how bad Culpepper can look, and still put up great fantasy numbers. He carried my team last year (drafted #23), but would not take him until the middle of round 2 this year. A great value anywhere after the 18th pick."

KKrew:
"Yikes. Predicting stats for Culpepper is like predicting the stats on the Playmate of the Month. We all know they're great & nobody would kick 'em out of bed!"

borribel:
"If there is one sure bet in FF, it's Culpepper being the #1 in 2004 FF-wise."

Daunte Culpepper Projections