Jason Wood's Thoughts

This is one of those situations that one can only hope comes to some resolution in training camp, but any decisions you make before Mike Shanahan officially declares a starter is nothing more than an educated roll of the dice.

Plenty of NFL teams utilize the committee approach to running the football, and usually that's something fantasy owners tend to avoid as much as possible. However, what makes this situation unique is that Mike Shanahan's teams have consistently produced excellent fantasy performers, from Terrell Davis to Mike Anderson to Olandis Gary to, perhaps the best of the bunch, Clinton Portis.

If you ask ten people, they all probably have distinct viewpoints on how this situation is going to play out; but since they pay me the big bucks to pontificate on player outlooks, I'll share with you my thoughts on the situation entering training camp.

1. Quentin Griffin - Had you asked me two months ago, I would've thought Griffin was the likely odd man out in the triumvirate of Hearst/Bell/Griffin. He was the incumbent, yet Shanahan went out and spent a high draft pick on Bell and signed a proven veteran in Hearst. If Griffin was the goods, I reasoned, why allocate resources to the position when other needs could have been met? Yet, as the preseason progressed and mini camps got underway, I began to realize that perhaps my bias toward Griffin's height was keeping me from seeing his potential. Griffin was as productive as one could ask for in college at a major program (Oklahoma); and although his height (5'7") appears a detriment to some, he's well built and has a low center of gravity, both pluses. Additionally, his experience gives him a leg up in understanding the offense; not insignificant given the complexities of Shanahan's system.



2. Tatum Bell - When Shanahan used a high 2nd round pick on Bell, I figured he would be the Broncos go-to back sooner rather than later. After all, the Broncos took Bell higher than any RB in Shanahan's tenure, quite a testament to Bell's potential considering the Broncos have long believed you could find valuable system RBs in later rounds. Yet, entering camp, Bell showed signs of a holdout; which could impact his playing time. I'm certainly not willing to rule him out of the equation, and would recommend drafting him in the mid rounds of a redraft, but I now believe he'll get his shot only if Griffin falters out of the gate.



3. Garrison Hearst - Hearst is 33 years old and doesn't have, shall we say, the best knees in the world. He was a warrior with the 49ers in recent years and, old and injury riddled or not, he was too good to keep off the field despite the presence of Kevan Barlow. I believe Shanahan signed Hearst out of respect for his workmanlike approach, and that he never complained about sharing time with Barlow. Hearst, when healthy, is an excellent blocker and provides a solid locker room presence. However, I don't see the Broncos building around him, nor do I believe his age and career workload lend themselves to Hearst effectively handling a heavy role this season. Much like Bell and Griffin however, I'm not going to discount the merits of rostering Hearst late in your drafts…just in case.



4. Mike Anderson - I could be wrong, but I believe Mike Anderson shows up in these conversations purely out of deference to his rookie season. Yes, his 1,500 rookie season was something to behold, however, since then his role has continued to diminish to the point where he's a fullback and bit player in the offense. I've not seen mention of Anderson being in the running for the feature job by anyone inside the Broncos organization; and until such time, I would put him a distant 4th in this complex equation.

Positives

• Quentin Griffin is the incumbent; providing him with the most familiarity with the offensive game plan, players and coaches



• Tatum Bell is the highest rookie ever drafted by Shanahan; clearly he believes Bell has what it takes to be a special player



• Hearst is, by far, the most accomplished RB on the roster who, at 32 years old, managed to force the 49ers into using a committee approach with Kevan Barlow

Negatives

• Griffin is small, and many wonder if he's got the build to handle a full workload



• Bell looks like a potential training camp holdout; which will put him further behind Griffin and Hearst in acclimating himself to the offense



• Hearst is 33 years old and his knees aren't great; he probably has to break camp as the number 2 to not be at risk of getting cut

Final Thoughts

In early mock drafts, Bell, Hearst and Griffin are being drafted 32nd, 36th, and 37th, respectively. In my view, Griffin should be the first off the board followed closely by Bell while Hearst probably doesn't deserve to go as highly as he's been going. Ultimately, as history has shown, Shanahan prefers one feature back whenever possible and, with that in mind, I believe Quentin Griffin will be given the first shot at the job. Should he prove unable to carry the torch (due to injury or simply lack of production), the door opens for Bell and he has the talent to never look back. Confidently roster either Griffin or Bell (or both if you can get them at the turn as a handcuff) and you'll likely wind up with a top 15-20 RB week in, week out.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

What. A. Mess. Truly, is there a more frustrating discussion to have at this juncture than the following: Who will get the bulk of the work for the Denver Broncos in 2004? The answer is actually very simple. Tatum Bell. Or Garrison Hearst. Or Quintin Griffin. Maybe Mike Anderson. The cold, hard truth is we'll be lucky if we know who the "feature back" is anytime before Halloween. So, why do we care? Because, if history repeats itself, whoever emerges will likely be a top-10 performer for the balance of the season. And so we dig into this mystery wrapped in an enigma.

The job: Being a running back for the Denver Broncos has its perks. The line chop-blocks…er…run-blocks as well as any in recent memory and the offense is geared to get lots of mileage out of the running back. The passing game is sufficient enough to keep the box loose, so whoever is running should likely have a decent YPC and produce in a way that makes Fantasy Footballers drool. The leading ballcarrier for the Broncos has finished 5th, 4th, 34th, 4th, 14th, 1st, and 2nd since 1997. That's 4 different guys and many of those seasons were abbreviated. Great googily moogily.

The players:

• Tatum Bell was drafted in the second-round and all signs on draft day pointed to him being "the guy." He's plenty fast, but there's some concern about his vision and his first minicamp was by all accounts less-than-stellar.



• Garrison Hearst is a veteran with good blocking and receiving skills to compliment his 4.4 ypc running ability. However, he's getting up there in years and his average has dropped in each of the last 3.



• Mike Anderson has been the Man before for Denver, but recently he's been left at fullback and caught only spot-duty as a tailback.



• Quentin Griffin was given some opportunity at the end of last season and looked decent despite a 3.7 ypc average. However, he's a little smallish and the fact that a vet and a rookie were brought in to challenge him doesn't appear to be a ringing endorsement from the Head Coach.

There appears to be little reason to dig deeper into each players ups and downs, pros and cons at this point because there is no way we can deduce the situation without more information: training camp. So, what should we be watching for? 1. Who is running with the first team? 2. What are the veterans saying? 3. What are the coaches saying? 4. Perhaps most importantly, is Tatum Bell "improving?." It would be foolish to think that Bell was brought in to be anything but the eventual starter. It would also be foolish to assume that he'll be given the job without a fight, particularly from Griffin. Recent press clippings from the offensive coordinator indicate that Griffin will be given every opportunity to be the starter. In my opinion, that doesn't tell us much (they said the same thing about Robert Chapman in Minnesota last season).

Since I can't help you with telling you who "the Guy" will be, I CAN share with you how I'd play it…draft Bell and Griffin in the middle rounds of your draft. The current ADP for Bell is 7.12. For Griffin, it's 11.02. While nothing is for certain, I would be positively SHOCKED if one of those two guys wasn't getting 2/3rds of the carries by Week 6. That's a lot of roster space to "waste" at the beginning of the year, but the payoff could be tremendous. If you want a Denver RB on your roster, you're likely going to have to overpay and draft two guys looking for the right one. I don't think Garrison Hearst is going to be a 16 week major contributor unless Bell and Q fall flat on their faces. I don't think Mike Anderson is going to be a main ballcarrier unless Bell and Q fall flat on their faces. Is that failure a possibility? Of course it is, but in this case, its worth the risk. In my opinion, Hearst was brought in to lend some veteran stability and competition to a head-to-head battle between Bell and Griffin.

As for me, if I had to pick one, I'd say Bell will be the guy before the season is halfway over. Why? It's not even that they have a second-round pick invested in him. I think Tatum Bell is a better inside runner than Quentin Griffin and has better breakaway speed. While going off tackle for 4 yards isn't glamorous, its an essential part of running the football. Griffin will likely be used in the offense for outside runs and screen passes, but in the end, I think Bell will be the guy to see the bulk of the carries. However, as I said, if one of them is going to be on my team, then both of them are going to be on my team. If the Denver situation interests you, I'd advise you to do the same on draft day.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Voodoo Rage:
"I think in this situation it is meaningless to post projections because it obviously depends on who gets the starting nod. I am going to go against the grain and actually go with Hearst here. This situation smacks of the Moe Williams/Onterrio Smith situation last year. Everyone is fawning all over the rookie, but the fact of the matter is that Hearst is still a very able running back. He brings a lot of experience to the game which can be very valuable when you have a good offensive line like Denver."

grouse:
"This is Griffin's job to lose. He'll be the opening game starter. If Griffin performs well, Bell sees limited action all season. Griffin will get 15-20 carries per game. Hearst and Bell will share 5-10 situational carries per game.

If Griffin stumbles, fumbles or gets hurt, Bell will get his shot. Bell did not have a good minicamp, and the Broncos players seem to feel that Griffin is the guy. And I agree."

coolbeans59:
"I heard Bronco's TE Jeb Putzier (3rd year backup TE) on 560-ESPN Radio a couple days ago and he gave his impressions about all the Bronco backs being talked about (summary of what I heard):

Mike Anderson: Guy knows the system inside and out. He thinks he should get the first crack at the job. He stays on the lineman's butt, sees the crease, cuts up and gets an extra 3 yards with his strength.

Quentin Griffin: Little guy that can be lost VERY quickly in traffic. Very talented, and could carry the load if needed.

Tatum Bell: Has a second gear that Clinton Portis could only dream of. (seriously, he said it!) Once he gets the offense down, he can be really good.

Garrison Hearst: Veteran that you know what you get with him."

DoctorFantasy:
"I see Hearst as the reliable safety valve that can step right in and contribute if the younger guys falter. My thought is that Bell will have only a limited opportunity to compete until week 4-5, but I see Griffin as the week 1 starter and most productive fantasy back by the end of the season."

Houston Stallions:
"Quentin Griffin has talent guys. He has the best cuts I've seen since Faulk and Sanders. He is short. But that should only be a problem if he were in a jump ball situation or the QB having to find him in traffic. In running the ball, it means nothing. I watched him in college a lot and defenses would lose track of him and then he'd burst out of the line and past the would-be tacklers."

Quentin Griffin Projections

Tatum Bell Projections

Garrison Hearst Projections

Mike Anderson Projections