Jason Wood's Thoughts

If you don't have one of the top six picks in your fantasy draft, chances are you're wasting your time reading this Spotlight. Under any scenario, McAllister is among the elite fantasy prospects alongside Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ahman Green, Clinton Portis and Shaun Alexander. Accepting his elite status, the next question becomes exactly where McAllister sits in this pantheon of great backs. In my view, McAllister deserves serious consideration for the top 3 at his position, and in leagues that reward points per reception, I would confidently take him no later than 3rd overall.

McAllister was a model of consistency last season:

• 12 of 16 games with at least 20 carries
• Nine consecutive 100+ yard rushing games
• 13 of 16 games with 100+ total yards from scrimmage

This production, along with 69 receptions and a career best 351 carries were good enough for McAllister to finish 7th among fantasy RBs last year. How did he fall short of the top 2 or 3 at his position with more than 2,100 yards from scrimmage? Two reasons:

1. It was an extraordinary year for running back production - Five running backs went over the elusive 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year and a record 4 backs rushed for more than 1,600 yards. As a result, Deuce's production was outlandish in historical context, but merely one of a half dozen relative to last season.



2. Deuce only scored 8 touchdowns - McAllister's 8 touchdowns spoiled an otherwise exemplary fantasy season and kept McAllister from ascending into the upper echelon of players. For context, let's take a look at all the RBs with a least 200 touches (i.e., receptions plus rushing attempts) last season and how they fared on a TD-per-touch basis:

McAllister only scored on 1.9% of his touches, significantly less than the other elite fantasy backs. Yet, I am on record as recommending McAllister as a top 3 fantasy option this year, how can that be?

Last year's TD production was an anomaly for several reasons…

1. Team red zone appearances will improve - The New Orleans Saints ranked 10th in total offense last year, but finished 30th in red zone attempts. Without deluging you with pages of historical context, it's safe to say that it's rare for such a disparity to exist. And given the weapons at the Saints disposal (Aaron Brooks, McAllister, Horn, Stallworth, a solid offensive line), one can reasonably expect the Saints red zone opportunities to move back toward the league average.



2. McAllister is adept at converting opportunities - The team's red zone woes led to very few goal line opportunities for McAllister. Specifically, he had just 7 carries at the goal line (5 yards and in), but converted three of those carries for scores. His 42.8% conversion rate is on par with other elite backs, it's just that they had more opportunities. Again, looking back at history, presuming the Saints offense doesn't fall off a cliff, McAllister will get more opportunities in 2004 from in close.



3. McAllister has shown himself capable of being a prolific scorer - Let's not forget that just two seasons ago, McAllister scored 16 touchdowns in 16 games; the only difference between 2002 and 2003 was opportunity.

When you add to this McAllister being 10 to 12 pounds lighter per the team's request (to add additional speed) and what looks to be an imposing offensive line; there's no reason McAllister shouldn't be among the first names called on draft day.

Positives

• The total package of size (6'1", 232 lbs.), speed (4.5 40-time), hands (69 receptions last year), explosiveness (16 runs of 20+ yards last year), and vision



• The Saint offensive line should be among the league's elite run blocking units



• McAllister's lone deficiency a year ago (TD production) was the anomaly for many reasons, not the rule

Negatives

• The Saints faded each of the last two seasons, and were forced into throwing to play catch up; which hurts McAllister's chances to pound the ball



• His TD production wasn't up to snuff for a top 5 fantasy option; the Saints must get into the red zone more frequently



• An injury to either Joe Horn or Aaron Brooks could stunt the overall production of the Saints offense; allowing defenders to key on Deuce more intensely

Final Thoughts

Deuce McAllister can easily be the top fantasy back this season; and is among a short list of "can't miss' prospects barring injury, of course. He's got a passing offense to keep defenses honest, will benefit himself from a good chunk of Aaron Brooks' looks, and should be closer to the 16 touchdowns of 2002 than his 8 touchdowns in 2003 given the unusual circumstances that led to so few opportunities. After LaDainian Tomlinson is off the board, I wouldn't scoff at McAllister being taken 2nd or later. If for some reason he were to fall out of the top five, consider yourself a winner of the 2004 fantasy lottery.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Deuce McAllister is one of the top players in all of fantasy football. There's little doubt that a healthy McAllister is a stud RB, the type of star that can be the anchor of a fantasy team. He has ranked as the sixth and seventh best RB in FF the past two seasons, his only as a starter. Already a two-time Pro Bowler, McAllister doesn't turn 26 until after Christmas.

While McAllister was backing up Ricky Williams as a rookie, he shined as the starter the following year. While his 2002 season was great, he improved nearly across the board in 2003. Last year he carried the ball 26 more times, increases his yards per carry ratio by 0.4, and increased his reception total by twenty-two. He increased his total yards by over 400 yards. He also had a streak of nine consecutive 100-yard rushing games last year.

Last year McAllister finished fourth in yards from scrimmage behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green. The only knock on McAllister's 2003 was the lack of touchdowns. While he proved to be a touchdown machine his sophomore season, he had just eight scores a year ago.

New Orleans had some red zone problems last year. They were second to last in red zone carries, twenty-sixth in rush/pass ratio in the red zone, and twenty-eighth in total red zone plays. Their eight red zone rushing TDs placed them in the bottom quarter of the league in that category. In 2002, this was a different story as the Saints were seventh in redzone rushing attempts.

So what will happen in 2004? McAllister can be penciled in for 1,500 rushing yards, and around 2,000 yards from scrimmage. The only question left surrounds his ability to hit the endzone. Since touchdowns tend to be very unpredictable from year to year, I wouldn't worry about having just eight last year. I think the fact that he's a young, talented, strong and fast runner makes him a good candidate for double digit scores.

Positives

• Been there, done that: McAllister is playing with essentially the same offense for the third straight year. Nothing to see here, he's still going to get a ton of touches



• No other RB on the roster will threaten for more than a token touch or two every week



• Excels in just about every area of the game. A true all-around star



• The additions of fullbacks Sam Gash and rookie Mike Karney should only boost McAllister's short-yardage game



• Rookie WR Devery Henderson and a full season out of Donte' Stallworth will prevent teams from focusing on 'The Deuce'

Negatives

• Aaron Brooks' propensity to turn the ball over has hurt McAllister in the past



• Was the touchdown draught of 2003 a fluke? He did not score in eleven games



• Only one player in football had as many touches as Deuce did-Ricky Williams. Will the high number of carries take a toll on McAllister's body as well?



• The TE position gets a lot of receptions (73) and touchdowns (seven) in this offense

Final Thoughts

There's everything you would ask for in your dream back in Deuce McAllister. The Saints line is young and improving, and the rest of the offense is top notch. I might be a bit concerned that Stallworth and Henderson will take away some of Deuce's reception total, but that would be offset by an all around better offense. He'd likely see his yards per carry and touchdowns improve. McAllister is a virtual lock to finish in the top five or six in combined yards, and could certainly finish first or second. Take him early in your draft, and you won't have to worry about your RB position for very long.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

beto:
"I think the world of this guy's talent. He runs with power, speed, vision, patience and can be elusive. He also catches the ball very well out of the backfield. Put him on a team with real coaching and he would put up some scary numbers. The play calling and Brooks' mistakes kept down his redzone opportunities but those will average out this year."

Shooter McGavin:
"Haslett will realize that Deuce is his best weapon, he'll actually use McAllister correctly in an effort to save his job. Deuce will see the end zone a lot more this year."

Long Snapper:
"As the Greek philosopher Aristotle said (or maybe it was Yogi Berra) "Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it" History over the last 5 years clearly shows poor TD production from the RB position in the Big Easy. There has been nothing easy about Deuce's running the rock to pay dirt. One double figure TD season for NO backs in the last 5 years is a stat that can be called skewed or even unfair, it cannot, however, be called false!"

Smoky:
"Deuce McAllister is a top tier running back and is one of the leading candidates to be ranked as the number one fantasy running back of 2004. In my opinion the only thing holding him back from having the Priest Holmes like monster season that the fantasy football world sees him capable of, is the personality of the Saints offense. Last year Deuce had only 9 carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line and only 35 carries inside the red zone."

Just Win Baby:
"He has no issues. You can't say that about any of the others, even LT and Holmes.

Opportunity? Check. He had one of the highest, if not THE highest, ratio of his team's RB touches in the league. There is no other RB with whom he will share more than a token touch or two per game.

Rushing ability? Check. 1388 and 1641 rushing yards in first two seasons as starter. Career 4.5 ypc.

Receiving ability? Check. 47/353/3 and 69/516/0 in first two seasons as starter. Career 7.9 ypr.

Supporting cast? Check. I don't personally think this is a huge factor, but it still works in his favor. He is in an explosive offense that should provide him a lot of opportunities.

Durability? Check. He has played 47 of a possible 48 games in his career and 31 of a possible 32 since becoming the starter. Despite the fact that he has been in the top 7 fantasy RBs in both of his seasons as a starter, he hasn't been overworked, with 676 carries and 792 touches over the past two seasons.

Upside? Check. Despite finishing in the top 7 fantasy RBs in both seasons as a starter, he did it once with good yardage and 16 TDs and again with great yardage and 8 TDs. He could easily put it together and finish top 3.

Age? Check. He is 25. Barely into his prime."

Deuce McAllister Projections