Jason Wood's Thoughts

OK, here's the easy part…Drew Bledsoe will be better in 2004 than he was in 2003.

Now that we've got that out of the way we need to examine how much better Bledsoe can be and what impact he may have on your fantasy team.

1. New Coaching Staff - Mike Mularkey takes over for Gregg Williams, and it's no coincidence that the Bills hired an offensive minded head coach this time around. After all, the Bills defense ranked 2nd last year but the offense finished 28th and single-handedly kept the Bills from contending. Mularkey spent three years calling the plays in Pittsburgh, and enjoyed varying degrees of success. When the Steelers had a good offensive line, Mularkey successfully utilized a power running attack with a spread passing attack that utilized Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress in tons of crossing routes trying to create defensive mismatches. Mularkey and OC Tom Clements (also from Pittsburgh) will look to do the same with the Bills having Eric Moulds play the role of Hines Ward while rookie Lee Evans hopefully steps to the forefront as the team's second receiver.



2. Offensive Line (and another coaching hire) - The Bills offensive line had more holes than 20-year old Swiss Cheese last season, allowing a league leading 51 sacks. Bills QBs were sacked more than 10% of the time they dropped back to pass. When your QB isn't mobile to begin with, you HAVE to find a way to protect him better. Enter Jim McNally. For those of you who haven't heard of McNally, he was the New York Giants offensive line coach under Jim Fassel. McNally worked miracles with a woeful collection of talent; and the Bills have a right to be excited about what McNally can do with a line that, on paper, has talent but needs to learn to play together. In addition, the team jettisoned Ruben "Overrated" Brown and brought in Chris Villarrial to replace him, a solid move in my view.



3. Receiving Corps - Last year the team hoped Josh Reed could replace Peerless Price, but Reed wasn't able to match Price's speed on the outside, and had difficulty shedding defenders all season long. This year, the Bills hope rookie WR Lee Evans is the answer to their WR2 needs. Evans is a sprinter who just happens to have good hands and the ability to out position defenders in traffic.



4. Eric Moulds Health - Moulds suffered a devastating groin pull that made it nearly impossible to run last season. Even though he gutted out most of the year, Moulds was physically incapable of making sharp cuts, thus reducing him to a straight-away deep threat; hardly indicative of his All Pro talents. Moulds is the type of receiver that if healthy, can put up numbers regardless of who lines up on the other side of the field. He's been every bit his old self in mini camp and the first few weeks of training camp; and that alone assures that Bledsoe will be better than he was a year ago.

OK, so if all the aforementioned data points are positives, shouldn't Bledsoe be on my fantasy radar as a QB2 at least?

Not so fast. Two years ago, Bledsoe lit the fantasy world on fire with 4,359 yards passing and 24 touchdowns, his best performance since 1997. However, there are major differences between this team and the 2002 Bills; most notably the coaching staff. The Bills had the league's most imbalanced run/pass ratio in 2002…612 passing attempts to just 388 rushing attempts. With a healthy Travis Henry and Willis McGahee in tow, I guarantee the Mike Mularkey will have this team among the most balanced in the league. Think along the lines of 500 passing attempts; that should serve as a baseline for Bledsoe. Give Bledsoe 6.6 yards per attempt (his career average) at 500 attempts and you're looking at 3,300 passing yards. Layer in 18-20 passing touchdowns and I believe you've got a reasonable estimation of what Drew's season will look like.

Positives

• Bledsoe is an accurate prototypical pocket passer, when he has protection and weapons at his disposal, he'll put up some big weeks



• The offensive line will look better this year under Jim McNally's tutelage



• Lee Evans and a healthy Eric Moulds will work wonders for Bledsoe's passing numbers
  

Negatives

• Is Bledsoe gun shy after taking so many hits last year (and over his career)?



• With Henry and McGahee being a potentially explosive 2-headed monster, will the passing game be relegated to "as needed" in Buffalo?



• Is Eric Moulds groin really back to 100%?

Final Thoughts

I don't believe Bledsoe will have the opportunity to put up numbers reminiscent of his 2002 campaign, nor do I feel the Bills are best suited in having him throw so many times. That said, I do believe there are enough weapons at his disposal that, combined with an offensive minded coach, should allow Bledsoe to approach 3,300 yards and 18-20 touchdowns. That puts him at the tail end of the viable backup fantasy quarterbacks. Draft accordingly.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts:

Drew Bledsoe can be a very accurate passer when he has time to throw. He still has one of the better arms in the league, and can pick a defense apart with zip and accuracy. The problem last year was that he seldom had time to throw. He is extremely immobile, and does not often find his second or third receiver very quickly. So when the offensive line breaks down, Bledsoe can have a lot of trouble. Has been sacked 103 times in his two years with the Bills, and is coming off a career-worst season.

There is, however, reason for optimism. Bledsoe is just one year removed from a monster 4,359-yard season, and has shown the ability to carry the offense when he needs to. The Bills have an entirely new coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball to try to fix last year's problems. Head Coach Mike Mularkey will install an offense that emphasizes quicker reads and a faster delivery, which ought to cut down on Bledsoe's sacks. The running game will also be emphasized, which will create play-action pass opportunities down the field if the offensive line can hold its own.

Also to Bledsoe's advantage is the return of a healthy Eric Moulds. Moulds got off to a fast start in the first five games last year before injuring his groin muscle. He was relatively ineffective after that, and fellow receiver Josh Reed did not live up to expectations, either. The Bills have added rookie WR Lee Evans to push Reed this year, who has the speed to stretch the field. The new competition may be just what Reed needed, as the second-year receiver has been having a nice training camp so far. With Bobby Shaw as the fourth receiver, Bledsoe has an assortment of capable targets to choose from.

Positives

• Has shown the ability to throw for over 4,000 yards



• Has a very strong arm and can make all the throws; is very accurate on intermediate throws



• Should see improvement this year from the Bills' offensive line, wide receivers, and playcalling

Negatives

• Coming off a terrible year in which he averaged fewer than 180 passing yards per game



• The Bills plan to emphasize the running game this year. With a strong defense and two strong running backs, they will aim to control the clock, which may mean relatively few pass attempts for Bledsoe



• The offensive line is still a concern until it proves otherwise

Final Thoughts

After a disappointing 2003 season, Bledsoe has been falling in this year's drafts to about the tenth round in 12-team leagues. Being drafted in the same general range as Joey Harrington and Jake Delhomme, Bledsoe presents enough upside potential to be a worthwhile risk at that point in the draft. If he and Eric Moulds can reestablish their connection, and if the combination of Josh Reed, Lee Evans, and Bobby Shaw can offer decent production, Bledsoe could return to his career average of about 3600 yards passing.

He is a risk, though, for two main reasons. First, part of his decreased production in 2003 resulted from having attempted only 471 passes (a career low for a 16-game season), and that number may not increase substantially in 2004. With two talented running backs in Travis Henry and Willis McGahee, the Bills will rely heavily on their ground game. And second, the Bills spent a first-round pick on a quarterback in this year's draft - rookie J.P. Losman. Losman's arm strength is even better than Bledsoe's, and if the Bills are a few games under .500 halfway through the season, they may decide to get the rookie some playing experience this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"A new head coach & new offensive scheme will not hurt Bledsoe's production. He's a grizzled veteran at this point in his career. He's seen most everything & will adapt to Mike Mularkey as he's adapted to his past coaches. No problem."

Phlash:
"I see Bledsoe bouncing back in a big way with Jim McNally as his O-line coach and Mike "I make bad QBs good, lets see what I can do with Bledsoe" Mularkey as his coach. I don't expect the BILLS in general to be better, but Bledsoe will be."

bostonfred:
"Where Moulds goes, so goes Bledsoe. Moulds' first 5 games last year, he averaged over 90 yards per game. Bledsoe's first 5 games last year, he was on pace for 3600 yards and 16 TDs. Then Moulds got injured, and Bledsoe's numbers went in the toilet.

Moulds is healthy again, the addition of Evans should make Bledsoe a little less reliant on Moulds, the improvement of the running game should make opponents leave the passing game more open, and the O line has talent and has another year together which is usually a good sign. All signs point to a better year."

Shooter McGavin:
"A healthy Eric Moulds, the addition of Lee Evans, and a hopefully improved offensive line should help Bledsoe bounce back this year. However, I don't believe he'll approach his 2002 numbers, because the team will focus more on the running game than in years past, IMO. I expect solid, but not spectacular numbers, and I'd be very comfortable with him as part of a QBBC."

Drew Bledsoe Projections