Jason Wood's Thoughts

T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn are about as different as you can get in terms of what they bring to the field. Duckett is a bruising (6'0", 254 lbs.) inside runner who hits the hole and powers through tackles. He's limited as a receiver, but has proven to be an exemplary goal line option. Warrick Dunn is one of the smallest RBs in the league (5'9", 180 lbs.) who relies more on his ability to patiently let holes develop and try to break through and get to the outside. Unlike Duckett, Dunn is an excellent receiver, dangerous in the open field, but not particularly suited for pounding the ball or shedding defenders.

If the Falcons could somehow genetically merge the two backs, you would have the prototypical franchise runner. However, last time I checked new head coach Jim Mora wasn't holding a patent on genetic transmogrification and thus, the Falcons will try to maximize the running game by playing to each runner's strengths.

The good news for Dunn and Duckett owners is that the new coaching staff has an excellent history with balanced running attacks. Jim Mora, the Falcons new head coach, brought along his former colleague, Greg Knapp, to serve as offensive coordinator.

In three seasons as the 49ers OC, Knapp consistently found success by mixing in Kevan Barlow and Garrison Hearst alongside a mobile quarterback.

Note the remarkably consistent production, nearly identical rushing and passing yardage year in, year out. So while this tells us that Knapp is accustomed to using more than one runner with great success, we have to remember three VERY big differences between the situations in San Francisco and Atlanta.

1. There are mobile quarterbacks, and then there's Vick - Jeff Garcia is a very mobile QB, averaging almost 340 yards rushing per 16-game season. That said, Garcia typically accounted for 15% of his team's rushing production. Michael Vick takes rushing to an entirely different level; he's as talented an open field runner as any RB in the league. Per 16-game season, Vick averages 760 yards rushing; which is more than one third of his team's optimum output. In other words, remember that Duckett and Dunn will have a smaller rushing pie to carve out production from than Hearst and Barlow did.



2. Duckett and Dunn aren't Barlow and Hearst - Remember when I mentioned that Duckett and Dunn possessed quite divergent skill sets? Such was not the case in San Francisco. Yes, Garrison Hearst was a better blocker but both he and Barlow were well rounded all-purpose backs, able to take a run inside or out, take a pounding, and catch passes out of the backfield. That enabled the SF coaching staff to be creative in their play calling. Regardless of whether Barlow or Hearst was in the formation, opposing defenses had no clue which play would be called. That's not the case in Atlanta; where defenses can be fairly certain that if Duckett is in the backfield, the team isn't going to throw him the ball, whereas Dunn isn't likely to plow up the middle of the line on a draw. Predictability equates to lessened production more often than not.



3. The passing game won't be as prolific - The 49ers averaged almost 3,600 yards passing and 27 touchdowns during Knapp's play calling tenure. Whether Vick progresses this year or not, it's unreasonable to expect him to take such a Herculean leap forward in 2004. That means two things. One, the team probably will run more frequently than they did in San Francisco. Two, defenses are more apt to play the run and keep an extra defender in the box.

Positives for Duckett

• Duckett is one of the better goal line backs in the NFL, converting more than 50% of his opportunities



• Duckett is young, and better equipped physically to take the pounding of a 15-20 carry workload



• The Falcons should rely heavily on the running game, and Dunn's injury history could open the door for Duckett to be the main workhorse

Negatives for Duckett

• Despite his size, Duckett has succumbed to myriad injuries in his career
• Duckett is a woeful receiver
• Duckett has to split carries with both Dunn AND Vick

Positives for Dunn

• Dunn has the more proven track record, having been a 1,000 yard rusher
• Dunn is healthy and in camp; the coaching staff has raved about his pass catching ability being perfect for the West Coast offense
• Dunn is very undervalued in points per reception leagues according to average draft results

Negatives for Dunn

• Dunn's size has led to a fair amount of time lost to injury, he's not equipped to take a full time pounding



• Dunn isn't likely to be a major factor in the red zone, Duckett is the better goal line back and so is Vick for that matter



• Dunn has to split time with both Duckett AND Vick

Final Thoughts

T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn, if healthy, will be used regularly this year. The problem as I see it is that you're never going to know when either is going to have a big game. There will be weeks where Duckett may score 3 times in short, while others where he's a non factor. On the same token, Dunn will likely amass a ton of receptions and be used heavily between the 20s; but his lack of scoring opportunities could lead to some barren fantasy weeks. If I were to choose one of the two, it would be Duckett in traditional leagues, as I see him getting the majority of the goal line opportunities. In leagues that reward points per reception, Dunn would be the more valuable choice.

Michael Brown's Thoughts

Both T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn enjoyed stints as the feature back in Atlanta for portions of last season, with varying degrees of success.

Dunn took the majority of the carries the first three weeks, but didn't exactly light up the score sheet (35 carries, 110 yards, 0 TD). The following week saw Duckett roll up 100 yards on 14 carries against Carolina, which saw the beginning of his run as the main back on the team. Like Dunn, Duckett didn't exactly seize his opportunity, totaling 316 yards and 1 touchdown during that stretch of games. In Week 10, it was back to Dunn. He responded with back-to-back HUGE games, going over 160 yards in each contest. Even the following week, when he carried just 14 times for 14 yards, he still managed 129 yards on receptions. Dunn had seemingly assumed control of the rushing attack, though Duckett hadn't disappeared completely. Despite totaling just 15 carries over those three games, Duckett still managed to pop in 4 touchdowns. When it was discovered that Dunn was injured and wouldn't be returning, Duckett had the job all to himself. Finally, he was able to take advantage of his opportunity. Duckett finished with 353 yards and four touchdowns over the last five games of the season, which projects out to a 1,130 yard, 13-touchdown pace over a full 16-game schedule.

Coming into this season, Dunn is still a major question mark because of the injury. He was very limited during spring minicamp, and wasn't expected to go full-bore until training camp is in full swing. For a player who relies so much on quickness and cutting ability, torn ligaments in his foot could prove devastating. As of late June, he was still feeling "dull pain" when pushing off with the surgically repaired foot. ANY player in the NFL that is coming off surgery is a major risk; when you factor in Dunn's position and how much stress, wear, and tear will be placed on the foot, it becomes an even bigger issue. In addition, coupled with Dunn's small physique, the risk for new injury or re-injury is even greater.

Duckett isn't without question marks of his own. Despite early reports from minicamp in May that Duckett was in great shape, word surfaced recently that he was a little heavier than the Falcons would like him to be. It apparently wasn't an inordinate amount of weight that he needs to lose, but anytime weight issues surface with a guy who has had problems with that in the past; it has to raise some sort of caution. Factor in Duckett's plantar fasciitis (a very painful foot condition), which certainly isn't helped by weighing 250+ pounds, and you have the makings of some big questions for him as well.

It's not all negative surrounding the Falcons' running backs in 2004, however. The return of a healthy Michael Vick should revitalize and re-energize the entire organization. Remember, the Falcons were a sleeper Super Bowl pick by some prior to last season, and Vick offered a glimpse of what could have been by going 3-1 over his four late starts. What does Vick have to do with the backs? Plenty! Better QB play = less pressure and defensive focus on the backs. Less pressure and focus on the backs = more sustained drives and the offense stays on the field longer. More sustained drives = an ability to stay in the game later, rather than resorting to airing it out and playing catch-up. It's no coincidence that in Atlanta's wins and close games (there were 9 of them), the Duckett/Dunn combo fared much better than when the team was beaten soundly.

In 9 close games

• Attempts: 214
• Yards: 942
• Touchdowns: 11

In 7 blowout games (blowout defined as a loss by more than 7 points)

• Attempts: 108
• Yards: 509
• Touchdowns: 3

If one believes that the return of Michael Vick significantly improves the Falcons, then one should also believe that the Falcons running backs stand to benefit tremendously. So the next question to ask is this: Which of these running backs will benefit you, the fantasy leaguer, the most?

Taking a look at last year's yardage totals gives a glimpse of how their respective seasons went on the whole. What we need to do is get to the nuts and bolts of their stat lines.

A lot of people get seduced into thinking that yardage is king and that touchdowns are fluky from year to year. And sometimes, this is the case. But while the actual scoring of a touchdown may be somewhat of a fluke at times, the opportunities that a player gets to score touchdowns is most certainly a byproduct of game plan, and NOT chance occurrence. Some may point to the overall season numbers for each player and determine that Dunn's per game yardage totals and per carry rushing average exceeded those of Duckett, and that the touchdowns will be more evenly distributed this year. Based on each player's red zone and goal line success rates, however, we can paint a different picture. Consider:

• Duckett had 39 red zone attempts in 2003. For a frame of reference, Deuce McAllister had 35. Duckett converted 11 of those red zone rushing attempts into touchdowns. The 11 red zone TDs ranked as the third highest total in the entire NFL, trailing only Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander. When you consider that Duckett was the only back in the top 13 in red zone scores that did NOT have at least 40 red zone carries, you can see that when his number was called, he made the most of it.



• Dunn had 16 red zone carries, scoring once.

On the flip side:

• Duckett had 11 goal line carries, and scored on 6 of them.
• Dunn had 5 goal line carries and scored once.

When factoring in the touchdown opportunities, one can see that Duckett is clearly the scoring option on this team. As stated earlier, even during Dunn's impressive mid-season run, he only scored once on the ground during that time while Duckett scored four times.

It is clear that neither can be confused with an elite fantasy option just yet, though there is an important factor to consider. Warrick Dunn has never been able to consistently hold down a starting job in the NFL. Even during his best years in Tampa, he was sharing carries with Mike Alstott. Now that he's 29 and coming off a major injury, it's fairly safe to say that this will not be the first 300-carry season of his career. Despite the fact that Dunn is still listed as the starter, it's difficult to imagine that he'll keep Duckett down all year. Even if he makes it through the year without injury, you know what you're getting from him for the most part. Two or three big games last year should not cause you to disregard what he did the previous seven seasons. He is not a feature back, and likely never will be. Duckett, on the other hand, COULD be an every-down back at least. The Falcons invested a high draft pick in Duckett two years ago, and it would stand to reason that they want to begin seeing big returns on that investment. While it seems quite likely that Dunn will at least earn a third-down role, there are no guarantees he'll come back healthy. Should that be the case, Duckett would be a full-fledged starting back. The fact that Duckett's upside is significantly higher than Dunn's should account for Duckett having much higher value coming into this season.

That isn't to say that Warrick Dunn is without value. Of course all players have value at some point in a draft, and injuries can hit any player at any time, regardless of his injury history. Should Duckett succumb to an injury at some point, Dunn's value could likewise skyrocket (assuming full health for him as well). And even if Duckett stays healthy and does keep the job, Dunn will not be shut out of the offense. All of this is assuming full health of course, but Dunn is an excellent change-of-pace type back and is one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL. He's averaged over 400 yards through the air per year throughout his career, and there's no reason to think he couldn't reach that level again if he can stay on the field. Duckett, meanwhile, is almost never thrown the ball. The Falcons threw a grand total of 15 passes Duckett's way in 2003, so if Atlanta is ever in a passing down, you can be fairly certain that Duckett isn't going to be getting the call. Since receiving by a running back is a big factor to consider, that is a huge chunk of production that Duckett is missing out on.

Final Thoughts

Most likely, neither back will produce enough to warrant stud status. Between Duckett's inexperience and inability to catch the football, and Dunn's return from injury, it can be assumed that each will have productive games and each will turn in the occasional stinker. A danger with using a guy like Duckett as an every-week starter is that he will catch almost NO passes. Unlike guys such as Tiki Barber and Charlie Garner (who can still catch passes and contribute in that way), on the occasion when Duckett can't get it going on the ground, he may not see the field at all. That's a killer when one of your starting runners throws up the equivalent of a goose egg. So it is a danger to rely on Duckett as an every-week starter. He's probably just on the outside of starting backs, making a very solid #3 with the potential to be a #2. But when you can land a potential #2 back with the 57th pick of your draft that seems to be excellent value to me. Dunn should be looked upon as a wild card, a guy to take a chance on but one to be wary of not overvaluing just because he had good stats in a few games last season. His average draft position at #78 overall is a little rich for my blood considering where his upside lies.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"The hope in Atlanta is for Greg Knapp to find a more consistent rotation for both Dunn & Duckett to excel in...The problem might be exercising patience with the duo. Over the seasons first 3 games Dunn rushed the ball 35 times for 110 yards, which prompted Reeves to shift the majority of the ball carrying load to Duckett. but had Reeves stuck with Dunn, Dunn may have exploded earlier in the season like he did against NYG & NO to the tune of 340 rushing yards. Yet Duckett didn't perform badly when he got the chance to be the primary ball carrier. Thus is the dilemma that is the Falcon running game (outside of Vick)."

KKrew:
"I have guarded optimism for 2004. As has been documented, both Dunn & Duckett have foot issues. Both may be limited somewhat. Duckett's 11 TDs in 2003 was a pleasant surprise for me. His 4 ypc, albeit pedestrian, was comforting in that he was able to at least get to respectability - a slight uptick from 3.9 ypc in 2002."

Spartans Rule:
"I've followed T.J. Duckett's career closer than that of any other player in the NFL. I watched him in high school, where he played for one of my school's conference rivals. I watched nearly all of his games at Michigan State. And I've seen a few of his games with Falcons. So I feel fairly confident in my assessment of him.

T.J. Duckett is not a natural running back. He's a natural linebacker. Had he gone to Michigan or Ohio State or one of the other national powers who offered him as a LB, he would probably be a hot topic in the IDP forums right now, drawing comparisons to Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher. But Duckett chose Michigan State, which gave him a chance to play on offense. While Duckett does have incredible power and good breakaway speed, he doesn't seem to have the vision and instincts that most great RBs possess."

Loco Barlow:
"Both Dunn/Duckett have foot problems that don't easily go away. Don't look now, but Quincy Wilson continues to get lots of reps in minicamps that could carry into training camp. I'm of the opinion that at some point next year, Quincy Wilson will get some playing time and impress in the new run-blocking scheme."

T.J. Duckett Projections

Warrick Dunn Projections