Chris Smith's Thoughts

One of the strangest stat lines in the NFL over the last six years belongs to WR Eric Moulds. Check this out...

• During the even-numbered years (2002, 2000 and 1998), Moulds has averaged 87 receptions for 1327 yards and 8 touchdowns



• During the odd-numbered years (2003, 2001, 1999), Moulds has averaged 65 receptions for 893 yards and 4 touchdowns

I am not really sure how to even analyze this trend except to say that it is tough to ignore when it has happened six straight times. The good news for Moulds owners is that the 2004 campaign falls onto the even-numbered tier and that may mean big things for Eric Moulds in 2004.

Last season was a train wreck, not only for Moulds but also the entire Bills passing attack. The Bills started out like gangbusters in the first two weeks of the NFL season, outscoring their opponents 69 to 17 on their way to a 2-0 start. From that point on though the Bills were atrocious on offense and only won another four games all season, being outscored 174 to 262 in the final fourteen games. Bledsoe also started strong but faded horribly down the stretch, averaging only 165.4 passing yards per game and throwing only 8 touchdown passes.

Moulds was deeply affected by the poor play from Bledsoe and his teammates. Also, a groin tear limited his explosive nature that we are so used to seeing. The result was a catastrophic final eight games for him in which he only gained only 323 receiving yards on 34 receptions and didn't score a single touchdown. During that stretch, his best game was a 66-yard performance against the New York Giants.
While it was a hugely disappointing season for both Moulds and the fantasy owners who drafted him, it must be said that much of the blame for the terrible season can be attributed to the injured groin that affected his play on the field. Here is a blurb from the Blogger…

Jun 3, 2004, 10:35
Bills - WR Moulds, The Burst Is Back
Allen Wilson, Buffalo News

Eric Moulds came off the line of scrimmage, made a sharp cut and snatched a pass out of the air without breaking stride. The injured groin that hindered Moulds last season is healthy again, and he couldn't be happier. Moulds didn't spend his entire offseason waiting for his leg to heal. Judging by the increased size of his arms and upper body, he spent an awful lot of time in the weight room.

Positives

• He was the fourth best fantasy receiver in 2002 with 100 receptions and 10 scores



• He was the fourteenth best fantasy receiver in 2000 with 94 receptions and 5 scores



• He was the fourth best fantasy receiver in 1998 with 67 receptions (1368 yards) and 9 scores



• He is entering an even-numbered year (for those of you who believe in trends and superstitions)



• He has a great mix of size and speed



• He has good hands and runs tight pass routes



• Adding gifted rookie WR Lee Evans could alleviate some defenses focus away from Moulds as the season wears on

Negatives

• His quarterback, Drew Bledsoe looked 'done' last season. Nothing was going right for the former star quarterback



• At some point, this hot year/cold year trend has to be broken



• The progress of rookie WR Evans could take some targets away from Moulds in the second half of the season

Final Thoughts

While I believe Moulds will rebound this season, I am petrified to draft him because of how poorly Drew Bledsoe played a year ago. He looked terrible over the final ten games of the season and didn't appear to have much left in the gas tank. Now Bledsoe is only 32 years old and should have a few more productive seasons in the NFL but I keep reflecting back on the ducks he was tossing last year and it terrifies me to no end. Also I believe the combination of rookie WR Evans and incumbent WR Josh Reed will take some targets from Moulds in the second half of the season and finally that the Bills will be rushing the ball a lot in 2004 with two gifted running backs in Travis Henry and Willis McGahee toting the rock. Heck, the Bills should line up former RB Josh Reed alongside of both Henry and McGahee in the backfield and try out the wishbone this season. Could be worth a try.

I believe Moulds will be a solid # 2 receiver in fantasy football this season but don't overspend to get him on your roster. I believe he should be taken no earlier than the fifth round as there are better value guys later in the draft if he gets scooped up before then.

Michael Brown's Thoughts

Eric Moulds has had an uneven career, to say the least. Three times, he has put up spectacular numbers and been one of the league's top receivers. But each time he did that, he followed the next year up with a stinker.

Last year was more a case of being struck by injury than anything else. An important question is this: Did Moulds' injury lead to the Bills pathetic offensive attack? And if so, does a healthy return by Moulds mean a return to one of the league's top offensive units in Buffalo? The answer, as with most situations such as this, lies somewhere in between.

The Bills of 2002 are history. Drew Bledsoe will not be approaching 4,000 yards this year, and Eric Moulds will be hard-pressed to put up 100 receptions even if the Bills make a concerted effort to get him the ball. Because of Drew Bledsoe and the rest of the passing game's ineptitude last year, the play calling is being simplified and the offense being scaled-down from the air show of two years back. In its place is a pounding ground game, featuring two of the league's top young runners in Travis Henry and Willis McGahee. The Bills defense is also an excellent unit, and will help keep the team in games. From all the offseason news that is going around, it would appear that the Bills would like to put Drew Bledsoe in a position where he doesn't have to win games, he just can't lose them. That is good news for Bills fans and the team as a whole, but it doesn't exactly lend much promise to the fantasy prospects for Eric Moulds.

Positives

• Shouldn't be limited by the groin injury. Much of this season's success rests on his ability to stay healthy, and if he's past last year's injury he could return to form



• I guess I have to throw the superstitious people a bone here. If you believe in that sort of thing, this is an even-numbered year. In 1998, 2000, and 2002 (even years), Moulds' average season was 87 receptions for 1,327 yards and 8 touchdowns. In the odd years of 1999, 2001, and 2003, Moulds average season was 65 receptions for 893 yards and 4 touchdowns



• Additions of Willis McGahee and Lee Evans to the offense could help Bledsoe greatly, which could in turn benefit Moulds. He has no competition to be the go-to guy, so he'll at least get opportunities.

Negatives

• Coming off his worst season since 1997 (his second year) for a team that just couldn't produce through the air in '03



• Severely limited by a groin injury in '03, Moulds is also another year older and the injuries could start popping up more with some more frequency



• Bills will be much more simplified and conservative with the two-man rushing attach of Travis Henry and McGahee. That could mean less of an aerial attack, dampening Moulds' numbers even if he is healthy.

Final Thoughts

Can Moulds once again be a Pro Bowl-caliber wideout? Yes, he likely still has the talent to do so. But be careful not to overestimate him. He's 30 years old now and coming off a bad injury and even worse season. A lot of people are expecting a return to form for Moulds, or at least something relatively close. That is evidenced by his average draft position of #37 overall. But even if Moulds does return to form, he might at best live up to that #37 ranking. But the risk in the Bills' conservative gameplan, Moulds' own decline (whether it be injury or not), etc., and you see that Moulds' ceiling is probably somewhere around 37. He's being taken ahead of much safer plays such as Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, and Darrell Jackson and up-and-comers like Andre Johnson and Chris Chambers. Think about it. It's not as if he's some young stud where the sky is the limit. It's almost as if he's being drafted based upon coming off a 1,200 yard, 8-touchdown season. Remember - just because he was bad due to injury last year, that doesn't guarantee health this year or ensure that he'll return to the Pro Bowl receiver he was two years ago. In my opinion, he could live up to his average draft position but nothing more and the value just isn't there if you're taking him at the top end of the fourth round.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Winning IS Everything:
"Eric Moulds is an enigma. He is thought of as a stud who had a bad year last year. But if you really study the numbers you will see a WR in his 30's that has eclipsed 67 receptions only twice and only had more than 7 TDs twice. His career average season is around 70 - 950 - 6. Add to the fact he is on the wrong side of 30 in an offense that is changing and I think Moulds has a better year than last year but not as good as some are hoping for."

gman8343:
"Year = Even
Moulds = Stud

Just like death and taxes, the only other sure thing in life is Eric Moulds will blow in odd years and roar in the even ones."

buck naked:
"Moulds' statistics last year must be viewed with his groin injury in mind. When he was healthy, he produced. Bledsoe looked his way, and will look his way again this year. He is by far the most talented, experienced WR on that team. I think Moulds will be undervalued just as A. Green was undervalued last year."

Repressed Dennis:
"Mularkey should help the Bills passing game, and I think Evans is a good fit for the secondary, speed receiver that helps Moulds out when he's going well. I don't really believe that the odd/even year thing is destiny, but whenever I play roulette I bet with the wheel, not against it...

Also, there are a lot of guys who draft based on last year's numbers, so Moulds could be a good value pick. My major concern is health - he has sustained a few injuries over the years, and it has really impacted his performance in 2003 and 2001."

KKrew:
"As Drew goes ... so goes Moulds. At least that's what I see. The additions of Evans and McGahee will only help Mularkey develop his offensive weapons. And, allow Bledsoe to shed his 2003 performance and move closer to his 2002 performance."

Eric Moulds Projections