Jason Wood's Thoughts

Freddie Jones has seen his prospects ebb and flow this offseason but two weeks into training camp, the outlook is bright. When Dennis Green took over as head coach, he wasted little time in taking Jones to task when he suggested that anything less than a Pro Bowl effort will result in Jones' benching. That caught some people's attention but should resonate loud and clear now that Green's made more dramatic personnel moves in order to cement his authority; most notably releasing Pete Kendall, one of the Cardinals better offensive linemen.

While some worried that Jones wouldn't heed Green's warning, and that his role would be different on a team that plans on running a 3-WR base offense; injuries have put any fear of Jones' role being reduced to bed. RB Marcel Shipp, the best receiver among the RB corps and WR Anquan Boldin, the team's lead playmaker, are both seriously injured and won't play for at least some portion of the season (possibly for the entire season). What that means is Freddie Jones, the lone established veteran receiving option, should be front and center in Green's offensive game plan and one of QB Josh McCown's most targeted options.

Freddie Jones finished 9th among fantasy TEs last year with 55 receptions for 517 yards and 3 touchdowns. That was on a team that passed for just 3,265 yards and 18 touchdowns. Given Dennis Green's track record, it would be difficult to think Jones can't match or better last year's numbers (particularly from a touchdown perspective) as long as he's healthy and properly motivated.

Positives

• Tall athletic converted WR is a natural pass catcher



• Dennis Green has consistently put together productive passing offenses regardless of the personnel



• With Boldin and Shipp out with injuries, Jones is one of two viable options in the receiving game (along with Larry Fitzgerald)

Negatives

• Jones effort and attitude have lagged his skills over the years; possibly endemic of playing for the Chargers and Cardinals



• With the desire to use 3-WR formations and the state of the offensive line being uncertain, Jones may be required to do more blocking than we fantasy owners would like to see



• The Cardinals injuries could completely stymie the Cardinals offense

Final Thoughts

A few weeks ago I would've looked at Freddie Jones average draft position (11th TE off the board according to Antsports) as appropriate with his situation. However, with the injuries to Marcel Shipp and Anquan Boldin, I see no way the Cardinals don't throw Jones' way early and often. As long as Jones doesn't get into Green's doghouse in the way Pete Kendall has (i.e., his outright release), you can count on Jones to be one of the safer bets to finish among the Top 10 fantasy TEs. Draft accordingly.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Freddie Jones took advantage of a great situation in 2003, snatching fifty-five passes for 517 yards and three TDs. While that would be a career year for most tight ends in the league, that was actually just the fourth best season of his young career. Jones had a ton of success early on, and will only turn 28 in September.

In many ways though, Jones has underachieved as a Cardinal. Despite averaging nearly 600 yards for the first five years of his career as a Charger, Jones has averaged about 150 yards less in his two seasons in Arizona. He averaged 11.3 yards per reception in San Diego, but just 8.8 yards per catch while wearing Cardinal Red. Additionally, he doesn't seem to be a big part of the future under Denny Green.

That future is likely reserved for Anquan Boldin and rookie sensation Larry Fitzgerald. Along with Josh McCown and Bryant Johnson, they are the nucleus that Denny Green will build around. Green never made the tight end a main cog of his Vikings offense, and it's doubtful he'll do that in Arizona.

Positives

• There's no question mark about Jones' talent. He has good hands and speed



• Arizona doesn't have great pass-catching running backs, so Jones will get a decent amount of looks



• The Cardinals should be passing the ball a LOT this year

Negatives

• Probably moves from the second option on the team, to third or fourth after the drafting of Larry Fitzgerald and maturation of Bryant Johnson



• Josh McCown is a good runner, and might steal some goalline TDs



• Jones' YPR is lower than you'd like for a top-tier TE



• Didn't seem to click as well with McCown as he did with Blake

Final Thoughts

I think we'll see Jones used as the third option on most passing plays this year. When a play breaks down, Jones will likely be closest to McCown and become the main target. However, with Larry Fitzgerald now in Arizona, Jones won't simply get points because "someone has to catch the ball." I think Jones benefited a good deal from that last year, as there was simply not enough talent to go around on the 2003 Cardinals. This year he's still going to produce, but I wouldn't expect another 500 yard season. He moves from being a good TE in a great situation, to a good TE in just an above average situation.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"The delta between my 6th ranked TE (McMichael) and my 16th ranked TE (LJ Smith) is a scant point per game (assuming a 14 week schedule & FBG scoring). Jones is somewhere in the middle of that scant difference. I have him closer to 16 than 6 because I don't see many TDs for McCown (or King)."

Porkchop:
"I like Freddie Jones; he's a good receiving TE and the only veteran in their passing attack. He often represents value late in the draft or off the wire and has found his way onto my rosters more than a few times.

However, I expect a slight decline in his numbers from last year.

• McCown remains an unknown; no matter how often Denny compares him to Favre.



• Arizona won't generate enough passing offense to make fantasy stars out of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Johnson and Freddie.



• McCown didn't seem to need the proverbial TE safety net. Freddie averaged 4 recs/game with Blake, and only 2 with McCown under center... the WRs did not see a similar decline."

Goat Herders:
"The injuries to the WRs and Shipp combined with a young/new QB who's going to need a reliable target = Big upside for Freddie. The fact that he's garnered a scant 4 responses among the self-proclaimed "sharks" is really just one more indicator that he should likely offer great value on draft day. His current ADP is in the 12th round, with him being TE12 off the board. That strikes me as being undervalued."

Freddie Jones Projections