Jason Wood's Thoughts

For a running back coming off back-to-back 1,300+ yard, 10+ TD seasons like Travis Henry, it's surprising to see him come off the board as the 16th RB, according to Xpertleagues mock drafts.

Yet, despite finishing 8th and 11th, respectively, in the last two seasons, Henry finds himself relegated to "decent RB2" status in the minds of most. In my opinion, there are two reasons for the expectation that he'll see lower output this year:

1. Uncertainty over the effectiveness of the Buffalo offense in its entirety
2. Uncertainty over the role of Willis McGahee

The Buffalo Offense

Last year the Bills were many people's en vogue pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl (i.e., on the cover of Sports Illustrated) as the team had added pieces to a solid defense and was coming off a 2002 season where the offense purred like a kitten. Ironically, the defense was as good as advertised, finishing the season 2nd in yards allowed, but the offense completely fell apart. The team was unable to make up for the loss of almost 50% of its receiving production from the prior year (i.e., Peerless Price, Larry Centers, Jay Riemersma), the offensive line allowed more sacks per pass attempt than any other team (10.2% of drop backs), and Drew Bledsoe turned in what was easily his worst career effort (2,860 yards, 11 TDs/12 INTs).

As a result, new head coach Mike Mularkey was brought in for reinvigorate the offense while leaving the defense to incumbent coordinator Jerry Gray. Mularkey is credited for opening up the passing game in Pittsburgh after years of being a run-first, run-second, run-third team. In Buffalo, Mularkey will have his hands full but is not facing an insurmountable task. Consider:

• Eric Moulds, who was severely hampered by a sore groin all last season, is reportedly healthy and ready to bounce back



• Offensive Line coach Jim McNally, late of the New York Giants, is one of the three or four best line coaches in the NFL and has been brought in to retool a line that couldn't effectively pass block or consistently open up running lanes last year



• Ruben Brown, living off reputation and a questionable locker room influence last season, has been sent packing and is being replaced by Chris Villarrial



• The Bills drafted Lee Evans, the small yet lightning quick receiver from Wisconsin, in the first round to help augment the receiving corps, which sorely missed Peerless Price last season



• Willis McGahee is healthy and ready to contribute, while Travis Henry is as determined as ever to deliver a fantastic season to either a) secure his future in Buffalo or b) prove his worth to another team next year

The Presence of Willis McGahee

Anyone that's watched college football in recent years understands just how special Willis McGahee looks. Playing for the same team that made stars of Edgerrin James and Clinton Portis before him, McGahee showed all the requisite skills of a franchise caliber NFL back. Were it not for a torn knee in his final collegiate game, McGahee would have been a top-5 pick and a certain starter for whatever team drafted him. However, due to the knee injury McGahee fell, although the Bills couldn't let him fall past their choice in the first round.

Fast forward to this season, McGahee is running and practicing and ready to contribute with no restrictions. Yet, Travis Henry remains on the team and ready to carry the load. So how does McGahee's presence factor into the draft day ranking of Travis Henry? Only time will tell, but in a discussion of this issue with a few Footballguys colleagues, we were hard pressed to come up with any examples of a HEALTHY veteran running back coming off a solid season being displaced by a young back already on the roster. In looking through all the seasons dating back to 1970, we couldn't find one solitary example that completely fit the bill. What this means to me is, proven healthy NFL contributors don't get shown the bench. As much as McGahee may be the future in Buffalo, I see no historical precedent to suggest the present is anything but Travis Henry.

Positives

• HC Mike Mularkey, intimately familiar with the potency of power running games from his time in Pittsburgh, has committed to getting the Buffalo run/pass ratio more balanced, a promise that went largely unfulfilled by the old coaching regime last year



• Henry is a proven fantasy commodity, and even if McGahee is given 100+ carries, Henry should be in line to see 280-300 carries this season



• The Bills passing game has nowhere to go but up and thus, Henry & McGahee should see less 8 man fronts this season

Negatives

• The Steelers offensive effectiveness declined markedly in each successive year under Mike Mularkey's control



• Henry must control his tendency to put the ball on the ground or he could fall into an unexpected committee situation with McGahee



• Neither back is a proven receiver, and it remains unclear if one (or the other) is going to play a prominent role in the passing game, a must for exemplary fantasy production

Final Thoughts

Try as my colleagues and I might, it was very difficult to come up with a real life NFL example of a proven veteran running back being displaced by a younger, unproven back while healthy. If Henry stays healthy, there is no reason to think he won't see 280-300 carries again this year, which means he'll deliver solid RB2 production. Although there are a dozen or so RBs I would rather draft, Henry has to rank near the top of the second tranche of running backs. McGahee, meanwhile, is also worth drafting very late in redraft leagues. At worst, he should see 100 or so carries this year as Buffalo runs the ball 500+ times this year. At best, he steps into Henry's role due to injury and rattles off some impressive performances.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

The Buffalo Bills surprised a lot of people by selecting University of Miami RB Willis McGahee with their first pick in the 2003 draft. No one was more surprised than RB Travis Henry, who had just come off a season where he posted over 1,700 total yards with 14 TD. The Bills had several other glaring weaknesses, yet they still took McGahee.

McGahee had a remarkable year at Miami his sophomore season, compiling a 282-1,753-28 season with 27 receptions for 355 yards. However, he suffered a terrible knee injury in the Orange Bowl, and the consensus had McGahee going in the late second or early third rounds of the NFL draft, not as the 23rd pick overall.

Justifiably, Henry was less than enthralled with this development and voiced his opinion. Initially, there was talk of McGahee returning in 2003 at least for the final few games of the season, but that never materialized. Henry responded with another solid season, putting up over 1,500 total yards and 11 TD. Henry showed a lot of grit and determination, playing part of the year on a broken leg.

On a side note, Henry was an absolute stud in high school. His senior season, he ran for 4,087 yards and 42 touchdowns in 14 games, including one contest in which he amassed 436 rushing yards. He also had 14 consecutive games with 200+ rushing yards.

The Bills have not been the most prolific team in terms of their ground attack. They had 427 rushing attempts last year and just 388 the year before. There has been talk this offseason of making much more of an effort to establish the run and pound the ball more so than ever before.

To that end, there have been some reports that have projected Henry at 1,200 yards rushing and McGahee at 800 yards rushing for the 2004 season. Basically, that would mean Henry would get in the vicinity of 300 carries and McGahee in the neighborhood of 200 carries. That would total 500 carries, and if that were to happen, the Bills' passing stats would take a major blow.

To put things in perspective, the #2 RB for Buffalo in 2003 (Joe Burns) had 39 carries. In 2002, the #2 RB (Shawn Bryson) had only 13 carries. McGahee becomes a viable RB option besides Henry, one that really did not exist the last two seasons.

Positives for Henry

• Has had 13 games with 100+ rushing yards and 8 games with 2 or more TD scored over his career
• Ranked as fantasy's #8 and #11 running back the past two seasons
• Posted full seasons with a 4.4 and a 4.1 YPC after a poor 3.4 YPC showing his rookie season

Negatives for Henry

• The Bills invested heavily in McGahee, and one has to wonder how much longer Henry will be part of their plans
• Giving away more than a few carries or receptions here or there will lower Henry's fantasy value
• Henry has had problems holding on to the ball. In 3 seasons, he's fumbled 23 times and lost possession 13 times

Positives for McGahee

• McGahee was very explosive his final season in Miami and consistently found the end zone
• He was one of the most explosive backs in college in recent memory and may have been a Top 5 pick
• Current reports out of Buffalo indicate McGahee is healthy and ready to play

Negatives for McGahee

• His knee injury was not a minor one, and we will have to see if he returns as the same explosive RB with all the same moves
• McGahee only had one huge season in college on a team that could possibly beat some NFL teams
• We don't really know what McGahee's role will be this year-and the Bills may not know yet either

Final Thoughts

No matter how you slice it, Henry seems destined to lose out in the short term and the long run. The Bills have already made it clear that Henry is the starter and Willis will be worked into the mix over time. Worst case scenario for Henry is a slow start, a low ypc, and multiple fumbles combined with several long runs and a couple of breakaway scores for McGahee. If things played out that way, Henry could quickly find himself on the bench if McGahee's knee showed no ill effects.

I foresee Henry ever so slowly losing a grip on the starting job after the first month of the season. He should be able to still get a majority of the carries, but by the end of the season I think the Bills will give McGahee a tryout over a full game or two as the #1 guy to see if he can handle the punishment as a featured back.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

dcgangstas:
"In a 12-team re-draft league, use an early-to-mid 2nd round pick on Henry, and a late-round choice on McGahee. In dynasty leagues, obviously use a much earlier pick to get McGahee. I don't foresee McGahee supplanting Henry in 2004, and the Bills must be careful not to devalue Henry's worth, given that they don't have a first round pick in 2005. If their intent is to trade Henry in 2005 for a first round pick (and additional picks), they can't afford to keep him off the field too much."

beef:
"Travis Henry is a slightly above average back that was put in a great situation and given a lot of carries. There are quite a few backs that would have done as well as he did the past two years. He is a pounder and he will play hurt and I give him a lot of credit there. The truth is though; he is nowhere near McGahee when it comes to talent. Henry's numbers could be affected greatly by how well McGahee has healed. I do still see Henry getting the majority of the work though. There is no reason to rush McGahee back, and If they do intend to trade Henry at the end of the year, I'm sure he they'd like for him to do well to increase his value."

KKrew:
"The Bills' offense was terrible in 2003. I see Mularkey adding some improvement. The squad totaled 24 TDs in 2003. They'll get 27 in 2004. Henry will get 75% of the total touches between he and McGahee. I see Mularkey trying to ease McGahee in while slowly (very slowly) backing Henry out. Assuming Willis shows that he can carry a load, the future will be his (but not in 2004)."

drpill:
"I predict that McGahee will have a decent season as a second tailback option for the Bills. Henry will have another Henry-esque season, but he will not be the centerpiece of the offense to the degree that he has been in recent years. The Bills are committed to establishing the run, but they should also have a decent downfield passing attack -- Evans and an improved Josh Reed will help take pressure of a healthy Eric Moulds, and Bledsoe should find himself with more time to throw thanks to a decent O-line (at least better than last year's)."

heyshady:
"McGahee is a much faster, bigger and more physical RB (at least he used to be). His blazing speed combined with his physical size made him the perfect red zone RB. He could bounce it outside or break tackles up the gut. Couple this with Henry putting the ball on the ground and that equates to McGahee as the red zone RB. Henry has proven that while he is a consistent, solid RB he lacks big play ability. If he isn't getting 1 yard TD runs he isn't going to be getting many TDs."

Travis Henry Projections

Willis McGahee Projections