Jason Wood's Thoughts

What a difference a year makes. Last season, when Jake Delhomme was signed to a small incentive laden contract to join the Panthers, the perception of Delhomme was anything but uniform amongst NFL observers. From a fantasy perspective, I suggested he would be the starter sooner rather than later (Rodney Peete entered the season the starter), which was met with indifference and doubt by a handful of fellow staff members.

Well, a 15th place fantasy finish and improbable trip to the Super Bowl have done much to change people's perception of Delhomme. Now, after signing a lucrative extension this offseason, Delhomme is the unquestioned leader of one of the NFC's surprising contenders.

From a fantasy perspective, Delhomme is good enough to be worth a roster spot and an occasional start if the situation presents itself, but not good enough to project as a solid QB1 with potential to finish among the top 10 at his position.

Delhomme doesn't have the strongest arm, but he was able to make the majority of throws last year and struck gold with WR Steve Smith, who built an immediate rapport with him particularly on deep up and go routes. As importantly, Delhomme showed he's calm under pressure, as exhibited by his heroic performance in the 2003 playoffs:

• 59 completions
• 102 attempts
• 58% completion percentage
• 987 yards
• 9.7 yards per attempt
• 6 touchdowns
• 1 interception

Those numbers are impressive under any circumstances, but when you consider they came against Dallas, New England (which shut down MVP Peyton Manning the prior game), Philadelphia (in Philly) and St. Louis; one could credibly say Delhomme has proven effective under any circumstances.

While I'm positive about Delhomme's abilities and note his production last season improved as the year wore on and extended into the playoffs, I'm also doubtful about his ability to show much upside in 2004. The Panthers were 29th in passing attempts last season and 3rd in rushing attempts. With DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis on the roster, HC John Fox doesn't want that ratio to change very much. As a result, Delhomme simply isn't going to get the chance to put up gaudy stats in the majority of games.

Positives

• Delhomme proved capable of leading a prolific passing attack against the best of defenses in the toughest of circumstances last season



• At press time, it looks as though Muhsin Muhammad is going to remain with the team, while WR1 Steve Smith should continue to progress as one of the league's most explosive receivers



• Delhomme benefits from a training camp where he's the established QB1, last season Rodney Peete saw the lion's share of snaps in training camp

Negatives

• Some NFL pundits suggest Delhomme's limited physical capabilities will expose him to a rough go around as teams now have a year's worth of tape to analyze



• The Panthers are primarily a power running team; they won't pass a ton unless they have to



• Beyond Steve Smith, the receiving corps (TEs and RBs included) is mediocre at best

Final Thoughts

I believe Jake Delhomme will once again surprise people and finish the year as a solid yet unspectacular fantasy QB2. He's not the kind of player you want to rely upon week in, week out but you could certainly do worse as a late round QB2 who could keep you in contention during bye weeks and as an injury fill in. When Delhomme was given the opportunity to throw the ball last year, he flourished, and there's no question he's got quite a rapport built with Steve Smith. However, the Panthers are built to win games the old fashioned way, by pounding the ball and playing stifling defense. To that end, I think Delhomme will have some very solid fantasy weeks, but will also have a handful of games where his attempts are too limited to help a fantasy team. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Jake Delhomme was the feel good story of the NFL last year. From NFL Europe to New Orleans Saints backup to Carolina Panthers starter to gutsy Super Bowl performance in 5 years. Few people thought the undrafted QB from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette would have had the impact he did in the NFL last year. He wasn't a great fantasy option, but he still ranked as the #15 QB overall in 2003.

There were several games that the Panthers got involved in that went back and forth or went into overtime. Many of those had Delhomme having to be the driving force in moving the ball downfield. In those games, he put up some decent numbers. In games where he had at least 30 passing attempts, he averaged 281 passing yards and 1.7 TD per game.

The flipside to the better games, of course, is that there were quite a few games where Delhomme really would not have been a great fantasy option. Delhomme's numbers might actually be better if the Panther's defense was not quite so intimidating. In games when the defense was "on," Carolina had a tendency to run all game long and rarely passed.

Delhomme had two games with 9 completions in the regular season and another game with just 9 completions in the NFC championship game against Philadelphia. Considering he appeared in 19 games on the season, that's a pretty decent percentage of games with very limited chance of posting big fantasy numbers.

With a potential target base of Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, and rookie Keary Colbert to throw to and perhaps DeShaun Foster getting more work out of the backfield, Delhomme has a decent base of players to work with.

Positives

• Delhomme finished the season strong and proved to be a big game player, beating St. Louis and Philadelphia on the road in the playoffs and falling just short in the Super Bowl against the #1 defense



• Ranked as the #9 QB over the last 8 games of the 2003 regular season



• Should be a happy camper after recently signing a 5-year, $38 million contract extension with $12 million upfront

Negatives

• The Panthers ranked 29th in passing attempts and 3rd in rushing attempts. They are committed to running the ball and vow to give RB DeShaun Foster more work



• WR Muhsin Muhammad may become a salary cap casualty unless he reworks his $4.4 million contract that he is slated to make this season



• May be a better NFL QB than a fantasy QB. Panthers were lucky to win a lot of OT games last year. The Panthers were not a full-throttle attack on offense and often were conservative when winning

Final Thoughts

Delhomme ended both the regular season and post season so strongly that I would have expected him to be getting a lot more hype than he has so far this preseason, but the opposite appears to be true.. FBG has Delhomme ranked as the #19 fantasy QB, even though he was the #15 QB for the season and #9 QB in the final half of the season. The FBG projections have him projected as the #21 QB next year, and I believe that to be shorting Delhomme a fair amount.

Carolina may pass more and rush less this season, and that would only help Delhomme. He had 3200/19 last year, and I can't see how he would produce less than that (although FBG projects him to do lower than that this year). With more opportunity, more experience, and the emotional high and confidence he should have gained from the post season, I expect a 10-15% increase in his production, making him a borderline QB1 and solid QB2.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

BigRed:
"I have liked Delhomme since his 'Nawlins days and was glad he found success. But offhand, although I see a light increase in numbers (more yards, slightly better TD/INT ratio), he won't dazzle you - Decent backup. No more, no less."

Tick:
"If anything, I think Delhomme's being undervalued coming into this season. Most people seem to dismiss him, saying he'll be overvalued since they went to the SB. But look at his last season's stats, and he was improving all the way through the season, even into the SB against a tough defense. Give him (and Steve Smith) another year, with a bit more Foster (receptions) instead of quite so much Davis (rushes), and I see him improving."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"The Carolina passing game is flying under the radar. Jake Delhomme really came into his own last year and is heading into this year with tons of confidence. Carolina has a nice rushing attack, which helps keep defenses honest and they have the playmaker in Steve Smith. There's no reason Delhomme doesn't improve on last year's numbers."

BassNBrew:
"In the second half of last season he was 145 of 237 (61.1%) for 1825 yards, 11 TDs, and 10 INTs. That was in his first season as a starter. The offensive line has lost several starters from last year which will force the Panthers into more passing situations. The schedule is also very favorable towards passing."

Jake Delhomme Projections