Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Last year there was considerable debate on Jake Plummer's 2003 fantasy prospects. In some areas, he exceeded expectations (easily top ten when he was on the field); in other areas, he was a disappointment (only eleven games played). His statistics were impressive: 7.2 yards per attempt, 62% completion rate, and a 15 TD/7 INT ratio. However, there are some new questions that Plummer must answer:

• Is he the all-pro caliber playing when healthy from 2003, or the man who threw 1.4 interceptions for every touchdown his last four seasons in Arizona?



• How does the loss of Clinton Portis affect his stats?



• How about Shannon Sharpe? And Ed McCaffrey?



• Will he stay healthy?

Where you stand on these issues will ultimately decide if you draft Jake Plummer in 2004, or let some foolish owner take that risk. For starters, I think the 2004 edition of Plummer is going to be more similar to his time in Denver than that in Arizona. He was saddled in a tricky situation, and I think he showed what he could do with a winner. He was 9-2 when healthy for the Broncos, throwing zero interceptions in those two losses.

How about losing Portis? This must be looked at two ways. If Denver gets one of their RBs to rush for 1500+ yards, then this becomes a non-issue. Even if no main man emerges but the Denver RBBC system produces 2000+ rushing yards from their top three backs, then Plummer will still have a very strong running attack. However, would having a weak running game really hurt Plummer? It certainly wouldn't help, and I don't think he can put this team on his shoulders and win. It would likely lead to an increase in passing attempts, but a decrease in overall efficiency. However, I have faith that Quentin Griffin, Garrison Hearst and Tatum Bell will do more than enough to keep defenses honest.

The biggest issue I feel for Plummer, is who will be catching his passes (besides the opposing team of course)? Denver finished twenty-third in passing yards last year, and they just lost two of their top four receiving leaders (Sharpe and Portis). McCaffrey was a non-factor last year, so his loss isn't nearly as important. For my money, Garrison Hearst and the rest of the RB crew will do a fine job replacing Portis in the receiving game, and Denver RBs as a whole will likely catch more yards than the 545 they did last season. Jed Weaver, O.J. Santiago and Byron Chamberlain will help to make up for the departed Shannon Sharpe. The Broncos however, are extremely thin at WR. Rod Smith, who has seen his receiving yards decrease every year for the past three; Ashley Lelie, who had single-digit receiving yards in five games last year; and Darius Watts, a second round rookie drafted out of Marshall.

Will Plummer stay healthy? I think last year was more the result of fluke injuries than either an injury prone player, or a player who now has a degenerative condition. I won't discount Plummer due to injury concerns.

Positives

• Plummer had career highs in many efficiency categories last year, and is being coached by some very strong offensive minds



• His rushing yards will help elevate him over similar-type throwers. Especially without Portis, Plummer has the upside for 300 yards and three-to-four scores



• The addition of Garrison Hearst should be a nice safety-net for Plummer

Negatives

• The losses of Shannon Sharpe and Clinton Portis will be a serious blow to the Denver offense. With the defensive additions this year, expect the scores to drop quite a bit on both sides of the ball this year



• Plummer has never had back-to-back good years. He hasn't ranked in the top ten since 1999



• The Broncos are unbelievably thin at WR this year, and an injury or two could kill Plummer's season

Final Thoughts

I don't like this Broncos team as far as fantasy prospects go. A player from every team but the Raiders and possibly the Browns will get drafted before any Bronco in most drafts. There's a big group of young QBs, all of whom have started less than thirty-two career games, in the lower end of the QB tier. Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Delhomme, McCown, Palmer, Grossman and Boller are all guys that should probably get drafted after Plummer. Perhaps only Cincinnati has a significantly better supporting cast for their QB than Denver. However, I have a hard time putting Plummer ahead of the veterans who have proved themselves before, such as Brad Johnson and Mark Brunell. I have Plummer in a little tier of his own, but I think he lacks a lot of upside for this year. If you're drafting him expecting numbers similar to his per game stats from 2003, I suspect you'll be disappointed in December. However, he is a talented QB with a firm grip on his job, and is still coached by Mike Shanahan. Lastly, for those that think Plummer was pretty much flawless when he played, don't forget to check out the tape of that playoff performance against Indy.

Clayton Gray's Thoughts

In his six seasons in Arizona, Jake Plummer flashed promise but never delivered a huge fantasy season. He did crack the Top 12 fantasy QB standing in 2001 with 3653 yards and 18 TDs, but that seemed to be his ceiling as he has never thrown for more than those 18 scores in a season.

Last year, the move to Denver brought about more promise as many expected Mike Shanahan to bring out the best in the QB. The 2004 season began horribly (from a fantasy perspective) for Plummer with a 115 yard, zero TD, and three INTs outing against Cincinnati. Somewhat surprisingly, Plummer did respond very well over the next four weeks with a total of nine TDs (one on the ground) and zero INTs over that time span. It seemed like Denver life was just what he needed to excel. Sadly, shoulder and foot injuries derailed Plummer's, and he watched from the sidelines for the four games. In the six games after his return, Plummer was both average (three games with a single TD) and spectacular (two games with three scores).

Overall, Plummer's 2004 campaign left him as the 18th ranked fantasy QB. However, considering that he only participated in 11 games, Plummer finished as the 9th ranked QB in fantasy points per game. Simply put: When Plummer played, he was generally a quality fantasy QB.

This offseason, the Broncos offense had a good deal of roster turnover and lost what were arguably their two most talented offensive players in RB Clinton Portis (traded to the Redskins) and TE Shannon Sharpe (retirement to the announcing booth). These two have been replaced by multiple players at each position. At RB, the veteran Garrison Hearst and the rookie Tatum Bell have been added while Byron Chamberlain, Jed Weaver, and O.J. Santiago were brought in at TE. These five are not as electrifying as Portis and Sharpe, but as a group they should be capable replacements.

Positives

• Plummer is athletic, mobile, and can make plays outside of the pocket. These wheels make him a more attractive option in leagues where passing TDs are worth only three or four points



• The ability to have a big game is there for Plummer. He had three TDs in four of his 11 games last season and also threw in a two-TD effort. All together, he had a multiple-TD outing in almost half of the games that he played



• The departure of Portis may not be such of a negative. In 2003, Portis either did not play or was held below 50 yards in five games. Plummer played in three of those games and totaled 711 passing yards and eight TDs in those contests. If the running game struggles this year, it appears that Plummer will be capable of picking up the slack and posting good numbers

Negatives

• Plummer has never thrown for more than 18 TDs in a season. It seems that he either posts poor numbers or starts strong and then succumbs to injury. Could Jake the Snake be snake bitten?



• Over his career, Plummer has thrown for 105 TDs and had 121 INTs. It is extremely difficult to have faith in a QB with such a pitiful ratio. It would be almost impossible to feel comfortable with him as a starting fantasy QB



• Plummer did not have a 300-yard passing game last season. To be an every-week fantasy starter there must be more yardage, but it doesn't look like he'll get that yardage in Mike Shanahan's offense

Final Thoughts

This is not your Arizona Cardinals' Jake Plummer anymore. There were fewer mistakes last year in Denver (only four INTs in his final 10 games), and he seemed to fit in well with the Broncos. My gut is pointing to a healthy Plummer finally surpassing the 18 TDs mark and even hitting 25 total scores. However, his receivers are shaky with the departure of Sharpe and no proven depth by the starting WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie (who is actually still more promising than proven). It is this lack of quality depth at WR and TE that has tempered my enthusiasm for Plummer. With better pass-catchers around him, he could be considered a sleeper to crack the Top 5, but with current supporting cast, he is better slotted as a fantasy back-up with some decent upside.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"Even though it is common perception that Plummer was able to resurrect his career in Denver - IMO, he was simply OK. Didn't screw up too much, had a couple of shining moments...and let Portis do the rest.

In 2004, it's his show...and in the past, that hasn't been the best thing for Jake Plummer. If it was, he'd still be playing for Dave McGinnis. Every time in Plummer's career it has appeared he's gotten the hang of playing QB in the NFL, he performs badly the next year."

Winning IS Everything:
"Jake put up great per game numbers last year but he missed time. He has good pocket presence and a good arm. The offense has changed a little and he will miss Sharpe, but I still look for good things out of Jake. I would feel good with him as my #2 QB."

KKrew:
"We can all see the numbers. The Snake is a career 56.6 completion% guy. He's tossed 105 TDs versus 121 INTs. But, notice what happened in 2003. The change of scenery pushed his completion totals to 62.6%. He tossed 15 TDs against only 7 INTs. His numbers under Shanny improved. All great news.

You want the bad news? The Snake played in 11 games. Since '99 he's missed 11 of his possible 80 starts. (And, oh, the other Denver QBs not named Elway seemed to have trouble staying healthy as well). I don't like it."

Dancing Bear:
"I think that Jake has shown that with some supporting cast that he can perform better than average as evidenced by his stats from 2003. However, that supporting cast is now a mere memory. Jake has lost Portis, McCaffrey, and Sharpe. Smith is a year older, and Lelie was supposed to remove a gimpy McCaffrey last year and he never did…Too many unknown variables for my liking."

Repressed Dennis:
"I like Jake this year. I believe in (Shanahan's) offense - in 9 years, the Broncos have been below average in passing yards only twice (one of which was last year). They almost always have scored a good number of passing TDs as well - 6 out of 9 years the top QB has had 22 or more TDs. So the potential is there. The questions boil down to (I think):

1. Will the offense be effective without a topflight runner?
2. Do they have the receiving weapons necessary?
3. Will Plummer last 16 games?"

Jake Plummer Projections