Jason Wood's Thoughts

First of all, let me get the legal issues out of the way. Although Jamal Lewis is facing federal indictment for his role in an alleged cocaine sale a few years ago, I don't believe we should discount his projected role and fantasy impact on fears of incarceration or legal wrangling. At the risk of getting too political amid what should be a light hearted fantasy column, guilty or not, our legal system has a long and storied history of letting wealthy, privileged and well-known people skate legal issues, and I expect nothing different in this instance. If Jamal is innocent, more power to him, if he's not, I would still be shocked if he has to pay the price for his transgressions.

OK, I'm now off the soapbox.

In terms of Jamal Lewis, the runner, it's difficult to find fault with someone who's 25 years old (will be 26 when the season begins) and is coming off a 2,000-yard season despite having absolutely no help from the passing game to keep defenses from keying on him.

Lewis is somewhat of a freak of nature, at 5'11, 235 pounds he could pass for a fullback but yet he possesses the speed of a man 40 pounds lighter. Combine Lewis' talent level with one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL, and you've got a recipe for success.

Kyle Boller's development - The Ravens were as one-dimensional as it gets last season, ranking 1st in rushing attempts and yards and 32nd in passing attempts, completions and yards. That HAS to balance out somewhat, although clearly coming from such depths means that one can't assume the Ravens will all of the sudden become proficient passing the ball. 2nd year QB Kyle Boller gets his first chance at starting the full season, but the jury is still out on Boller, as he completed less than 50% of his passes IN COLLEGE. Although the Ravens should run the ball less (and pass the ball more) in 2004, any drop off in workload should also lead to a commensurate increase in opportunities for Lewis to catch passes out of the backfield, and see fewer 8 man fronts.

Touchdown Production - Jamal Lewis scored on 12.1% of his red zone rushing attempts last season (11 red zone rushing touchdowns), which while solid is far from impressive when compared against other top rushers. Of the 20 RBs that had the most red zone carries last season, Lewis' TD conversion rate ranked just 17th. That suggests that Lewis isn't likely to see another major jump in his TD production, despite being a yardage machine.

Positives

• Young, talented, uber productive back playing in one of the most run-oriented offenses in the league



• Proven, effective offensive line returns intact from a year ago, when Lewis ran for more than 2,000 yards



• Any improvement in the passing game should help keep defenses honest, Lewis saw as many 8 man fronts as anyone this side of LaDainian Tomlinson last year

Negatives

• Lewis has a propensity to put the ball on the ground at times, something to consider if you're league penalizes for fumbles



• Lewis has two major knee injuries in his past, although the production suggests it's no worry, one has to be mindful of his history coupled with the heavy workload



• Lewis is neither a prolific scorer nor especially talented as a receiver, so he'll need outsized rushing production to justify a top 5 selection

Final Thoughts

Jamal Lewis had a season for the ages last year; made all the more special for fantasy owners who were able to grab him in the early 2nd round. This year, it's unlikely Jamal will be available in the 2nd, so he'll have to be your RB1 if you want him. I think Lewis will finish solidly among the top 8 to 10 fantasy RBs this year, but of all the "sure things" that are projected to come off the board in the first round, he is probably the least likely to jump into the top 3 or 4 in my view. Draft accordingly.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Last year on Sunday Night Football, we all watched Jamal Lewis become just the fifth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Lewis had a sparkling 5.3 yards per carry ratio, and was the definition of a workhorse with 387 carries. He rushed for 500 yards against the Browns, and was never held below seventy total yards in a game. However, many of us also know the history of the previous fab four's follow-up seasons, after breaking the 2K milestone. Here are the rushing stats for the group:

While that includes Terrell Davis' injury plagued 1999, two things jump out. The yards per carry dropped considerably, and they ran as a group for less than half as many yards as they did the previous year. For all four players, they ran for at least 0.4 yards per carry more in the 2000 yard season than in any other season of their career, and Dickerson ran for a full yard per carry higher than his second best seasonal effort.

However, a sample a four doesn't tell us very much. Thanks to Doug Drinen, I've got a more appropriate sample. According to the Doc, "Lewis' top 20 most comparable RBs (seasons), as a group, decreased their fantasy production by 7.2% in the following year. For all top 10 RBs since 1990, the average regression the following season was 9.5% (in fantasy points per game). For all top-10 RBs since 1990 in the twenty-three to twenty-five years age group (Lewis was 24 last season), the average regression was 4.5%." Basically, there's nothing especially exciting or noteworthy to expect a 7.2% drop for a player of Lewis' caliber. This would reinforce to us what's intuitive-there's nothing magical about hitting 2,000 that would make us sour on a player's prospects for the following year. Historically, the normal regression to the mean that should be applied to all the top ten RBs should be applied to Lewis, and no more.

In the end, whatever Lewis did last year has little impact on what he'll do this year. What's important for fantasy owners is that he's as safe a bet there is to finish among the league leaders in rushing yards, and will certainly be getting his number called early and often. It's tough to define a "typical" Jamal Lewis season, as he scored 311 FPs last year, 219 the year before, and missed 2001 entirely with an ACL injury. However, unless he shows more consistency with regards to touchdowns and receiving yards, he's likely to slip out of the top five this year.

Positives

• Lewis is an absolute tank, weighing in at 5-11, 240 lbs.



• He is quite clearly the central point of the offense, and stands no chance of losing PT or touches to another RB



• An improved supporting cast could help make a career season (2003) into a typical Jamal Lewis season. Kyle Boller should be much improved this year with the additions of QB coach Jim Fassel, a full year as the starter (including training camp), and WR Kevin Johnson

Negatives

• Lewis has little room for upside, as he easily set career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns



• Lewis is a very good back, but not a 5.3 YPC RB. With a much more normal 4.4 YPC, and a decline in carries, his rushing yards will fall significantly



• Lewis isn't involved much in the receiving game. If Baltimore increases their pass/run ratio this year (how can they not?), he may not get 387 carries against this year



• Jamal Lewis still has some off the field legal questions. Until (if?) he is cleared of those charges, there is a chance he could miss games this season

Final Thoughts

Jamal Lewis is a physical monster, on a team that had made him one of the most valuable players in football. He is a lock to get 320 carries if healthy, and should be among the leaders in rushing yards this year. The Baltimore passing game will improve this year, as they were historically bad last year. Dead last in completions, attempts and passing yards, and not much better in touchdowns, yards per attempt and interceptions. A rebound season from Travis Taylor and the addition of Kevin Johnson could help Baltimore improve their anemic passing game. However, they're still going to finish in the bottom fifth of the league, and win or lose based on what Jamal Lewis has done. While others may discount Lewis this year because of his off the field issues, I believe that they will have no impact on him this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

guderian:
"Jamal Lewis had 1,769 total yards with a 4.3 ypc and 7 TDs in 2002--the year AFTER his second knee injury. That year the team had few other offensive weapons and he still had a great season. With another year behind him after the knee injury he comes back with 2,271/14 and an incredible 5.3 ypc. Again--few other offensive weapons to draw defensive attention.

He has well documented off-field issues, but on the field it's hard to argue that he will do worse than he did in 2002 unless injuries slow him down."

RedRaiders:
"Will he get 2000 again? Doubtful as I agree his ypc regresses - but I don't think 1700 is out of the question here. He's still young. TDs could be interesting as his offense improves, Boller will surely pick up production - I think he slightly drops off there."

TheFanatic:
"(To the) point that every single runner that had a year similar to Jamal's had a drop off the next year is valid except that it's a little dated. All of those drop-offs occurred more than 5 years ago. In the last 5 years I've seen guys come back from ACL and MCL surgeries. Something I have never seen before. I've seen RBs top the 30 year mark and still dominate. Something that is quite rare.

So, I guess what I'm saying is that I have more faith in the modern athlete to come back from stuff like this than I did in the past."

jurb26:
"I know that most people here have been concentrating on his gaudy rushing yard numbers from last year. I choose to look at the gaudy TD numbers he posted instead. Lewis posted more TDs last season than in his other 2 combined (14 to 13)! This was in large part due to the extra big plays he was able to account for and because Baltimore used him more. I think his work load will remain pretty much intact in 2004, but there is no way he can continue the 5.3 YPC and big plays from last year."

The Man:
"He is still not yet 25 years old, is in arguably better shape than at this time last year, has an intact O Line returning that should have better cohesiveness than last year's, and can't possibly get less out of the passing attack than he got last year. And to boot, one thing coming out of the Ravens' passing camp (at least on local talk radio) has been a commitment to increase Boller's completion percentage by throwing more passes to the RBs."

Jamal Lewis Projections