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Jason Wood's Thoughts As I sat down to write up my thoughts on Javon Walker, I was initially prepared to explain why I liked him to at least maintain last year's level of fantasy production (he finished 21st) and possibly improve upon that. However, the more I looked at his situation, the less confident I became in projecting Walker as a breakout fantasy player this season. Visions of last year's "Quincy Morgan will be a stud in 2003" proclamations started dancing in my head. In 2002, Quincy Morgan "emerged" from a pack of Browns receivers to finish 20th at his position. He was a 2nd year receiver, averaged 17.2 yards per catch and caught 7 touchdowns in just 56 receptions. I, like many others, predicted a breakout 2003. Sound familiar? Well, the following season, Morgan sustained neither the high YPC (fell from 17.2 to 13.6) nor the touchdown production (from 7 to 3) and was a wasted fantasy pick in most cases. But wait a minute you say, aren't you simply letting one bad experience with a similar player get in your way? Isn't that analysis too myopic? Perhaps, this is why I then looked at all WRs who finished with at least 30 receptions and averaged 17+ yards per reception; and tracked their production in Year N+1. Here are the results... In the last ten years, 63 such seasons occurred, with the following average production:
In other words, there is a major drop-off in production. The drop-off in receptions is notable (13%) but overshadowed by the drop-off in YPC (17%) and touchdowns (35%). That 35% drop-off in touchdowns is particularly noteworthy in the context of Walker because his fantasy production was so heavily weighted toward his outsized touchdown prowess. Now, I'm sure some of you will make the observation that within that 63 sample dataset, there were sure to be exceptions and Javon Walker is in the right circumstance, and of the right age, with the right talents to be one of those exceptions. So let's look at a more representative subset of the data. Walker caught nine touchdowns last season (54 fantasy points), which represented 43% of his total fantasy production. So let's screen the data set for those WRs that not only relied on a high YPC (above 17) but also had at least 33.3% of their fantasy production by way of touchdowns. In the last 10 years, there were 27 such occurrences:
Comparing this set of data to the larger set is interesting. WRs who had a high YPC and relied on TDs for at least 1/3rd of their fantasy points actually fared better YOY, although still took a tumultuous drop. On average they scored less in Year N (126 to 134) but held their value better in Year N+1 (105 to 93). Nominally, 19 of 27 WRs suffered a drop-off in total point production. Either way you slice the data, two things stand out, 1) WRs with YPCs of 17+ cannot be expected to maintain that YPC in future years and 2) WRs that rely on TD production for a disproportionate amount of fantasy production are unlikely to maintain that TD-to-reception rate in future years. Enough number crunching, what we really want to know is whether Javon Walker the real deal? So let's look at his situation. Based on what we've discussed already, I'm going to make the assumption that Walker won't maintain his high YPC or be counted on to score 9 touchdowns in 2004 UNLESS we can make the case that his targets and receptions (i.e., his role in the offense) is going to take a major step forward. So is that a realistic expectation? Point 1: There are other competent receivers on the Green Bay roster - Another similarity between Javon Walker and Quincy Morgan is that Walker is one of several talented WRs on the roster. Last season, both Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson played important roles in the Green Bay offense.
What's notable here is not so much the numbers against one another, but the fact that no GB receiver was targeted more than 100 times, on a team that had 474 pass attempts. Point 2: Walker only converted 53% of his targets into receptions - Although Walker only had one drop last season, his reception-to-target ratio is relatively low for someone with designs on being a top flight receiver. Walker being the team's deep threat explains much of this; quite often Walker didn't connect on deep bombs that may simply have been "uncatchable." But it's also noteworthy that Walker caught just 11 of 26 passes thrown his way on 3rd and 4th down. When a WR catches less than half of his passes on crucial downs, one has to seriously question the conventional wisdom that he's become Brett Favre's go-to receiver. Point 3: This is Ahman's team until someone tells us differently - Favre
only took 474 passing attempts last year, meaning there was less wealth to spread
around. Meanwhile Ahman Green ran for a franchise record 1,883 yards and the
team ran for a whopping 2,558 yards (3rd in the NFL). Coach Mike Sherman has
started putting the onus more and more on the running game, and with Green and
his backups healthy and in their primes, there's no reason to expect the run/pass
ratio to shift back toward a pass heavy emphasis in 2004 and beyond. Positives
Negatives
Final Thoughts Javon Walker is a talented young receiver who made some very big plays for the Packers last season. He did everything the team asked him to do (get open deep, cut down on his drops, and maintain focus) and flourished in that role. Early reports out of minicamp also suggest that Walker is ready for another solid year. Yet, we can't forget that this team no longer needs to throw the ball 600 times. Combine that with the fact that both Robert Ferguson and Donald Driver remains integral parts of this offense, and it's difficult to project a massive increase in targets coming Walker's way. And, as history has shown, Walker isn't likely to maintain a YPC above 17 or score as many touchdowns in a similar workload; meaning that Walker has as good a chance at scoring LESS this year as he does of improving, in my view. Now, if either Driver or Ferguson were to succumb to injury Walker's outlook would take a big leap forward. But barring that, one can bet that at least one or two owners in your league will project a major leap forward in Walker's production and draft him far too high for his risk profile. Avoid Walker unless you get him as your WR3 or WR4 in the second half of the draft. 
David Yudkin's Thoughts Javon Walker emerged last year from relative obscurity, posting a 41-716-9 season with a 17.5 YPR average. You can look at that season a lot of ways; as such a high level of productivity from such a limited workload could be either a great springboard to future success or a precursor of potential disappointment. Walker ranked as the #21 WR in only his second season and with a limited number of receptions. For those that buy into the third year WR breakout theory, he is entering his third season. The Packers don't have a clear #1 receiver, so the opportunity exists for Walker to take his game to another level. With double the workload, even at a diminished productivity level, Walker could have a monster season. The clear #1 WR in Green Bay during the Brett Favre era has been a great fantasy option. The "Favre Factor" has generated seven top 10 fantasy WRs, including six top 5 finishes:
All that makes it sound like Walker is a shoo-in for fantasy superstardom. Not so fast. In recent years, there have been similar players with high TD-to-reception ratios and high YPR totals.
All of those players ultimately ranked lower the following season. More importantly, none of them hauled in many more passes. Last year in Green Bay, Walker not only had a small amount of receptions, he also had a limited amount of targets as well. No matter how you slice it, that's not a great combination. The 2003 Packers were not the dominant force they have been in recent years. They ranked 27th in passing attempts and were one of only two teams that had 8 players with 20+ receptions (the other was Indianapolis). Green Bay fairly regularly had around 600 passing attempts per year. With the emergence of Ahman Green last year, that number fell to 473. Again, that's not good news for Walker. Positives
Negatives
Final Thoughts Given the way Walker ended the year, it's easy to see why many are hyping him going into the upcoming seasons. However, a review of the underlying statistics poses some serious concern. There's only so much offense to go around, and much of it would have to be transferred from Ahman Green for Javon Walker to have a 1,200-yard/10 TD season. Quotations from the Message Board Thread To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here. Ditkaless Wonders: The foregoing might indicate Walker could achieve success similar to some of the above numbers. I, however, think not. Today's more experienced Favre tends to rely less on any one weapon. Further, Sherman's offense is more running back centered than were Holmgren's offense under which Favre had his best years." ratpfink: joffer: rabidfireweasel: If you look at Walker's last 4 regular season games played and his two playoff
games- this is what you see: 19 catches, 396 yards, 3tds Ferguson actually outscores him from a FF perspective." boubucarow: Let's look at players the last 10 or so years that caught 60 or less balls and scored 8 or more touchdowns. 2002 - Marc Boerighter (20-8), Donte Stallworth (42-8), Jerry Porter (51-9), and Wayne Chrebet (51-9) meet those criteria. The best 2003 season among those players was Stallworth with 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. Boerighter didn't even score a touchdown. In the 90's Ed McCaffrey (45-8), James Jett (46-12), Billy Brooks (53-11), and Calvin Williams (60-10) all turned in such seasons. Only McCaffrey improved the next year with 1053 and 10 in 1998. Jett and Williams pulled in 800 yards but with dramatic reductions in touchdowns. I don't think this should be a surprise to anyone. In my short research
that includes more players, wide receivers that score 40% of their fantasy points
(.10-6 scale) from touchdowns usually decline the next year and usually significantly." Javon Walker Projections
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