Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'm not going to touch Jeremy Shockey with a 10-foot pole this year. Maybe that will prove foolish in retrospect but I won't second guess myself given how unbelievably out of whack his on field production is with his current draft position.

According to Antsports, Jeremy Shockey is coming off the board in the 5th round of 12-team drafts, and he's the 3rd TE selected on average. Make no mistake about it, Jeremy Shockey is a rare physical talent who is a mismatch for any linebacker that's asked to cover him. But that said, how can Shockey's overt flaws not give you pause before paying what amounts to a king's ransom for his services?

• His injury history - Shockey has appeared in 24 of 32 possible games; with the majority of those games missed last year after he was diagnosed with a "hot spot" in his foot. The injury required offseason surgery; and although he's practiced in training camp, he's yet to fully test himself.



• His TD production - When the Giants drafted Shockey two years ago, then head coach Jim Fassel kept talking about how they finally had a playmaker to build around. The Giants had trouble scoring in the red zone and Shockey was supposed to answer that call. Yet, in 24 games Shockey has a whopping 4 touchdown receptions; hardly the stuff of legend.



• His attitude - Bone headed comments, late night carousing in New York City, misplace emotional outbursts on the field; none of these have a place in the behavior of a franchise player but are unmistakable hallmarks of Shockey's temperament.

Positives

• A major mismatch for opposing defenders in coverage; he's too fluid a route runner for linebackers to keep up and too big for most defensive backs to handle in press coverage



• Was on pace for 85 catches, 950 yards and 4 touchdowns last season prior to his injury



• Should be one of the focal points of the Giants' passing attack; probably second behind Amani Toomer for targets

Negatives

• Shockey is recovering from a foot injury that can't be guaranteed to be chronic



• For every highlight reel play, Shockey is prone to lapses in concentration; on and off the field, how will that play with Tom Coughlin in charge?



• With the offensive line appearing suspect, and Coughlin a stickler for pass protection, Shockey would be held in to block on more occasions than fantasy owners care to realize

Final Thoughts

Drafting on potential is one thing; every good fantasy draft needs a few players who outperform their draft position to put you over the top. But there's a difference between drafting a 3rd or 4th receiver who you personally expect can finish the year in the top 20 and using a 4th or 5th round draft pick on a tight end who has missed 25% of his team's games, been known more for his missteps off the field than his accomplishments on it, and has scored a whopping four touchdowns in two years despite playing for a team that desperately needed playmakers.

Do I think Jeremy Shockey is talented enough to have a monstrous year statistically? Absolutely. But are you really willing to forego the kind of talent available at other positions in the 4th and 5th round in order to draft someone who MIGHT stay healthy, MIGHT get his head on straight and MIGHT emerge as a consistent playmaker?

Do yourself a favor and either grab Todd Heap instead or, if he's not available, wait a few rounds on someone like Alge Crumpler or Boo Williams. They may not be as productive on a per game basis, but the difference between a 4th/5th round WR/RB plus one of those guys versus Shockey and a 7th/8th round WR/RB should be significant.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Jeremy Shockey has quickly become one of the best tight ends in the NFL. In just twenty-four career games, he's caught 122 passes for 1,429 yards and four scores. Those numbers are remarkable for any tight end, let alone one in his first two years in the NFL. While some may point to the lack of touchdowns as a knock on him, Tony Gonzalez also scored just four in the first two years of his career. Jeremy Shockey is the best player on the Giants offense. They don't have a top ten QB, RB, WR or offensive lineman-what they have, is a top three tight end in the league.

His sixteen-game average season would yield an astounding 953 yards receiving. Whenever Shockey plays, Shockey produces. Of course, the big question mark on Jeremy Shockey is his health. How does it look? As of August 13th, the New York Post said the following:

A day after returning to practice, Jeremy Shockey provided the following update yesterday on his right foot: "The positive thing is, it's not sore right now." He also reiterated his promise to be ready for the Sept. 12 season opener.

There's no doubt that taking Shockey comes with some risk-he has missed eight games so far, or one quarter of his professional career. However, when healthy he may be the best tight end in football. In fact, he's averaged the most yards per game of any tight end since he entered the league. The box below shows the top four tight ends since 2002, with their yards per game over that span prorated to a sixteen game season.

Positives

• Excels at getting open, his great athleticism makes him a mismatch for most defensive players in the league



• The Giants love Shockey, and go to him early and often. While Tiki Barber and Amani Toomer are good players, they aren't superstars that hurt Shockey's stats. Instead, they help prevent defenses from focusing solely on Shockey



• With a new QB this year (either Eli Manning or Kurt Warner), Shockey will likely see a lot of passes early on. At some point we'll see Manning, and young QBs tend to rely more on tight ends. In Shockey, he's got one of the best in the league

Negatives

• Shockey's one of the most arrogant players in the league, and the perfect example of the "modern athlete" that fans love to hate



• His injuries the past two seasons are a major cause of concern. If he can't play, he's got no value. For now he looks to be healthy once the season starts, but pay close attention to his right foot



• For a stud TE, Shockey has yet to find the endzone with any degree of consistency

Final Thoughts

If healthy, I think Shockey is in for a monster season. 1,000 yards receiving isn't just possible, I think it's likely. Entering his third year, he's ready to put it all together. Tiki Barber, Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard are nice complements, but the Giants offense will move through Shockey. What's impressive to me is that Shockey was the only star on the New York offense not to see a sharp decline in his stats from last year. Consider:

At this point however, I'm not yet convinced that Shockey will play a full season. I'll give him 12 games, and you can prorate his stats if you want to roll the dice on him. Either way, don't let him slip past the fifth round of your league.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Fallerjw:
"Shockey will start out a bit slow this year and come on later. He will stay free from the injury bug once the season starts."

KKrew:
"Shockey has a bad foot. I'm thinking its all about nothing but this little bird keeps bugging me with apprehension."

borribel:
"If healthy he is a stud, yardage wise. But his failure to produce TDs worries me."

Jeremy Shockey Projections