Jason Wood's Thoughts

Jerry Porter won't find be on many (if any) of my rosters this year. This is not to say he's not young, talented or capable of finally ascending into WR1 status for the Oakland Raiders; but it's clear that too many people view him as someone that could achieve stellar numbers and are willing to draft accordingly; whereas I see the likelihood of his reaching elite status very slim indeed.

According to Antsports, Jerry Porter is currently the 24th receiver off the board on average going in the 6th round of 12 team mock drafts. I currently rank him 33rd and don't project his achieving 1,000 yards receiving.

Why the disparity? Let's start with the presence of Jerry Rice. Jerry Porter is younger and a much better deep threat at this stage in their respective careers. And yes, Porter will be a full time starter for the first time now that Norv Turner is in charge and Tim "Mr. Raider" Brown has been released, however, have people forgotten that Jerry Rice has been the better player in good times and bad?

Good Times: 2002 - The Raiders were among the league's most prolific offenses with Rich Gannon throwing for 4,689 yards and 26 touchdowns.

• Rice - 92 receptions for 1,211 yards (13.1 YPC) and 7 touchdowns (WR11)


• Porter - 51 receptions for 688 yards (13.4 YPC) and 9 touchdowns (WR28)

Bad Times: 2003 - Rich Gannon gets hurt, the team loses confidence in HC Bill Callahan, and the passing offense falls to 28th (2,988 yards).

• Rice - 63 receptions for 869 yards (13.8 YPC) and 2 touchdowns (WR37)


• Porter - 28 receptions for 361 yards (12.9 YPC) and 1 touchdown (WR89)

When you can roster Rice in the 15th round versus Porter in the 6th or 7th round, why would you reach for the younger but less accomplished player? To be clear, I certainly believe that Porter will benefit from being a clear starter for the first time in his career, but again, I still don't see why he'll be targeted significantly more than Rice barring injury. And with Norv Turner taking over, who's to say how all the Raiders myriad weapons fit into the offensive puzzle.

Other factors to consider this year:

1. QB Play - Whether you believe Rich Gannon will be the starter for all 16 games or not, the combination of a healthy Gannon and Kerry Collins is infinitely better than the situation Raiders players dealt with last year. Certainly Collins is equipped to play at a high level and has the arm strength to thrive in Turner's downfield passing attack; so expect both Porter and Rice to benefit this season as a result.



2. Norv Turner's offensive stylings - Norv Turner is a proponent of power running setting up a deep passing game. In other words, the antithesis of Jon Gruden's system. While Porter has the deep speed and size to be effective in Turner's system, remember that Porter was slow to learn Gruden's system over the years. Will the challenge of mastering an entirely new offense be too much for him, particularly now that he's being asked to start?

Positives

• Finally assumes a starting role



• The addition of Kerry Collins assures that the Raiders won't succumb to complete offensive breakdowns if (when?) Gannon gets hurt



• Porter's size and deep speed make him a good fit to flourish in HC Norv Turner's offensive scheme

Negatives

• Has been outperformed by Jerry Rice in good times and bad



• His route running has improved, but still isn't what you would expect of a potential WR1

Final Thoughts

Even if you believe Jerry Porter will out produce Jerry Rice this year; I'm not sure the case can be made to justify Porter's ascension into an every week fantasy starter. He's learning a new offensive system, this is the first chance he's getting to start, and there are myriad other options offensively. I think people have for too long been lured by Porter's physical metrics and the promise of his 9 touchdowns in 2002 being a signs of things to come. Before you're ready to put a rubber stamp on Porter this year as "breakout candidate" go back and look at how poorly he played last season. For the record, I believe Porter will have more good showings than bad this year, and will exceed 900 yards receiving if Gannon/Collins remain modestly productive, but I think counting on much beyond that is going to be a disappointing proposition.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

We should have known. I mean we REALLY should have known that Jerry Porter's big-time emergence in 2002 wasn't going to be sustained. I mean, really, is there any precedent for a guy that does so much (9 TDs, 688 yards) with so little (51 receptions) to keep it up? That's a rhetorical question, but you can ask it to Brian Finneran or Marc Boerigter next time you see them…

As you can probably tell by now, I'm not entirely sold on Jerry Porter. Or rather, I don't think the hype (and draft position) is justified. Not yet. Can he be a really good WR? Absolutely. Can he do it this year? Probably. However, I do not think he's going to be headed to top-10 range any time soon. Why?

1. Opportunity - Jerry Rice may be older than dirt, but he's still Jerry Rice. As Mark Twain said (sort of), "Rumors of Jerry Rice's demise have been greatly exaggerated." Rich Gannon is a veteran, and he certainly might trust Porter to be his playmaker. But he's not going to ignore the greatest WR ever, lining up against the other team's second best corner.



2. Skewed Stats - 9 TDs in 51 catches is the biggest reason people are excited about Porter. However, last year, he had 1 TD in 28 catches (and dropped a very catchable TD on Monday Night Football). In 2001, he had 0 TDs in 19 catches. Let's call the 2002 TD production a bit "abnormal."



3. Norv's Gameplan - Norv Turner likes to run it plenty. His teams' TD ratio run/pass has been skewed significantly in favor of Rushing TDs in every season but 2 since 1991 (including his Head Coaching and Offensive Coordinator stints around the league). He's also thrown it less then the league average - by a wide margin - in 6 of his 13 seasons as a play-caller. Even in the years where they tossed it a good bit, he's never really used the pass to greater degree than the rest of the league.

Final Thoughts

Porter's ADP is the mid-to-late 7th round. All things considered, that's a pretty reasonable spot for a young guy with upside. The only WRs going after him that appear out of place (in my opinion) are Marty Booker and Rod Smith, and an argument can be made pretty easily that Porter possesses greater upside and a better QB than either of those guys.

As for the player himself, Porter has great physical ability, good speed, and can fight for the ball both in press-coverage and in jump ball situations. He's also a good blocker, which should keep him on the field most of the time. All the tools are there for him to be a fantastic wide-receiver….I just don't see the value in him this year. In the 8th round (or even 9th), he'd be a great find in my opinion, but the 7th is just a hair too high for me. Furthermore, if the Raiders rely on scoring on the ground more than through the air, which has been Turner's preference in the last decade or so, Porter's value could quickly drop through the cellar.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"So when I evaluate Porter's opportunity on the positive side:

#1 - He seems to be the #1 guy now.
#2 - The Raiders passing game can't be as horrid as it was in 2003.
#3 - He does have the physical tools to blossom
#4 - Does anyone in the Raiders backfield have the ability to take the heat off the passing game?
#5 - There may be very little competition to catch passes for the Raiders this season.

...but on the negative side

#1 - He's never been the #1 guy, or for that matter, the #2 guy (even though he's produced at that level).
#2 - Brown & Rice showed noticeable (to phrase it as nicely as possible) decay in 2003 so Porter will have to raise his game more than a notch to be considered a true #1 WR.
#3 - If the Raiders threw for 1000 less yards in 2004 than they did in 2002, it would be a very good season for the passing game.
#4 - If the O-Line stays healthy, they should greatly reduce the sacks allowed number of 43 that occurred in 2003.

Overall, Porter is a guy who for me is tough to get a handle on but my "gut" tells me that while he may show more consistent signs of becoming a true go-to guy, he won't do it enough to excite me. I'll steer clear."

SammyJankis:
"I think people are greatly underestimating Jerry Porter. Physically he is as gifted as they come. A low tolerance for pain? He actually had multiple hernias and tried to play through it.

As I pointed out about a year ago, during Porter's "one good season", people discount his playoff numbers. He led the Raiders in yards, catches and TDs in the post season. By the end of 2002, he had clearly become the Raiders #1 WR.

Last season was a wash for the reasons stated above: Porter was hurt, all the Raiders QBs were hurt, etc. Now that his Hernia has healed and he'll have good QBs throwing him the rock, I think Porter picks up in 2004 where he left in 2002."

diesel7982:
"People talk as if he's produced as a starter before...when all he has ever done is been a bigger version of Az Hakim (a marginally talented #3 WR in a great passing offense).

Size and speed do not a star make. Ill keep repeating this 'til someone listens."

kaso:
"I agree that Porter will face more double coverage this year, but I don't think it will be on a consistent basis. The Raiders have enough skilled players on the field to help draw the coverage away. Add that to the amount of time that Collins/Gannon will have in the pocket and Porter shouldn't have a problem getting his chances in."

Winning IS Everything:
"Jerry has shown flashes but all of his damage was done 2 years ago as the #3 WR against a nickel or dime back. I think we will see a rebound from Porter, and if you see him dropping in your league by all means grab him. I would take him as a #3 or #4 but I tnink someone will probably take him sooner."

Jerry Porter Projections