Chris Smith's Thoughts

While most owners have already put receiver Jimmy Smith out to pasture, there are a number of reasons to believe he has another sterling season or two left in him. A year ago, Smith reported to camp very out of shape, unmotivated and was hit with an embarrassing drug scandal that cost him a four game suspension to start the season. It was a huge fall from glory for a player who led the league in receptions during the 1999 campaign with 116 grabs and managed to grab another 112 passes during the 2001 season. Despite his horrible beginning to the season in 2003 and being in the worst shape of his professional career, Smith rebounded to catch 54 passes for 805 yards and 4 touchdowns in only 12 games. Projected over a full 16-game season he would have put up 72 receptions for 1073 yards and 5 touchdowns.

By all accounts this offseason, Smith has been on a tear. He has reclaimed the jump he enjoyed during his glory years and looks like the fastest receiver on the offensive unit once again. He has been beating the Jaguars' starting cornerbacks badly throughout minicamp, scoring many long touchdowns wherein last season he was unable to score at any point in the offseason unless you count the cocaine he scored. Smith has had a great run in the NFL after a very slow start to his NFL career. Over the last eight seasons, Smith has managed to catch 696 passes for 9804 yards and he scored 52 touchdowns. Only Marvin Harrison has caught more passes than he has in that span with 759 receptions.

News Blogger Blurbs

Jaguars.com blurb (Vic Ketchman)

Last summer, hard times returned for Jimmy Smith as he served a four-game suspension for violation of the NFL's drug policy, and he wrestled with the embarrassment of it all. Now, heading into what will be his 11th NFL season, Smith has the motivation of a player who wants to erase the stigma of last year's fall. He wants to end his career in Jacksonville on the high note he lost last summer. He wants to win back the fans he might have also lost.

Last spring, Smith labored in the heat. He was overweight and out of shape. Smith had lost a step, too, and after the suspension and a 54-catch 12-game season, there were concerns Smith's glory years were gone forever. Let's just say the Jaguars felt compelled to draft a wide receiver in the first round and, again, in the fourth round.

How would Smith respond? Shut it down? No way.

He's lighter and faster than he's been since his glory days. He's recovered the step he lost last spring and Smith is, again, the quickest, fastest, smoothest-looking receiver on the Jaguars roster. "My goal is to make the playoffs. I think that's realistic. Individually, make the Pro Bowl," Smith said.

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Times-Union (Bart Hubbuch)

Wide receiver Jimmy Smith caught another long touchdown pass from quarterback Byron Leftwich. It was at least the third time since minicamps began early last month that the 35-year-old Smith has beaten veteran cornerback Juran Bolden in single coverage for a touchdown longer than 40 yards. Bolden is expected to be the Jaguars' starter at left corner this season.

"Jimmy and Byron are on the same page, and Jimmy is really, really playing some good football," Del Rio said. "He's faster than I've seen him in some time."

Positives

• Has averaged 87 receptions per season since 1996



• Is in better shape than he's been in for some time and is 20 pounds lighter than last year's offseason



• Runs great routes and has excellent hands



• Has a tremendous attitude this season. He wants to put last year's embarrassment behind him



• He has a talented, young quarterback in Byron Leftwich throwing him the football



• The addition of gifted rookie receiver Reggie Williams should help the passing game

Negatives

• At 35 years of age, Smith is no longer a Spring Chicken



• Coming off of his worst season since 1995



• While Leftwich is talented, he is also inexperienced and could suffer through some poor play

Final Thoughts

I believe Jimmy Smith is one of the best value picks around this fantasy season. In the four seasons prior to last year's disappointment he averaged 100 receptions for 1312 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns and if anything he is more motivated this season than at any point in the last several years. He was embarrassed last season and believes he has a lot to make up to Jaguars' fans, his teammates and most importantly to himself. Many folks are pointing to his age stating he is too old to return to his glory years. I call hogwash on that statement. Being in great shape will always make up for any age issues and taking a look at what Rice has accomplished since he turned 35 shows that age doesn't automatically mean a dramatic decline in production. If Jerry Rice can catch 92 passes as a forty year old, I don't see any reason why a veteran receiver in unbelievable shape such as Jimmy Smith can't crank out another big season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him flirt with another 100-reception season in 2004.

Jason Wood's Thoughts

As an Eagles fan, Jimmy Smith has always been "the one that got away." Smith was released by the Birds very early in his career, and of course went on to establish himself as one of the best receivers of his generation. Last year, coming off his 7th consecutive top-20 season, Smith was again expected to be an every week fantasy starter. However, an unexpected 4-game suspension for violation of the league's substance abuse policy threw a monkey wrench into those plans.

After seeking treatment, Smith returned in Week 5 and wasted no time showing the league he still had immense talent - he torched the San Diego Chargers for 137 yards on 8 catches. Over the last 12 games of the season, Smith amassed 54 catches for 805 yards and 4 touchdowns; good enough for 30th in the year end fantasy WR rankings.

When you consider that Smith finished 30th despite missing a quarter of the season, playing with absolutely no help from the rest of the receiving corps, and learning to play with a new quarterback (Byron Leftwich), there's reason for optimism heading into 2004. Consider:

1. Byron Leftwich's maturation - Byron Leftwich took over the starting QB job in Week 4 last year, and put together an OK first season as the Jaguars signal caller. Remember that Leftwich was a rookie last year and endured a lengthy holdout. As importantly, he started the season as Mark Brunell's backup. That meant that Leftwich neither had the time to get properly acclimated to the team's offense nor build any rapport with Smith. Yet, they still hooked up for 805 yards (11th over that 12 week span) and 54 receptions (T 17th) playing together largely on instinct. This season, with Smith healthy and Leftwich getting 100% of the training camp snaps with the first team, it stands to reason both should be in line for improvement.



2. The addition of Reggie Williams - Jimmy Smith is used to being the go-to receiver; and being double teamed is something he's played through for a decade. However, his best years came with Keenan McCardell lining up opposite him; which forced defenses to free up on Smith at times. Last year, the Jaguars were without any legitimate playmaker to line up opposite Smith. The team tried Matthew Hatchette, Cortez Hankston, Troy Edwards and even acquired Kevin Johnson mid-season; all for naught. Enter Reggie Williams, the big (6'4"), and polished rookie receiver out of the University of Washington. Even as a rookie, Williams already projects as the best receiving partner Smith has had since Keenan McCardell went to Tampa. This should help keep defenses honest; another plus for Jimmy Smith's cause.

Positives

• Even in a down year, Smith finished WR30; project his production over a full 16 game season and you're looking at 72 receptions for 1,073 yards and 5 touchdowns and he's easily a solid WR2



• Smith and Leftwich had the offseason and training camp to build rapport this year, versus last year when they were thrown to the wolves



• Smith hasn't lost a step (his 14.9 YPC was his best in 5 years) and continues to have excellent hands (just 4 drops in 112 targets)

Negatives

• Smith faces a full year suspension if he fails another random drug test



• At 35 years old, age could be catching up to him finally



• The Jaguars are going to win games by running the ball and playing tough defense, sometimes the passing game won't emphasized

Final Thoughts

At 35 years old, and coming off an 800 yard season, I fully expected to tell you why Jimmy Smith shouldn't factor into your fantasy plans this year. However, upon closer examination, Smith's 2003 season wasn't much different than his previous efforts. Despite playing with an inexperienced rookie QB, missing 4 games for substance abuse, playing in pain, and having no supporting cast to keep opposing secondaries from locking him up, he finished as a lower tier fantasy WR2 on a PPG basis.

This year, with Leftwich being in much better shape and having the advantage of a full training camp for the first time, and with Smith reportedly in amazing shape and having a chip on his shoulder, I believe Jimmy has gas left in the tank. Recall that last year Smith averaged 14.9 yards per reception; he hasn't lost a step. This year, although I think the Jaguars will focus on the running game primarily, Leftwich will be asked to make plays downfield and Jimmy Smith should be the primary beneficiary. Rookie Reggie Williams should help alleviate some of the pressure from opposing defenders, and Smith should easily eclipse the 1,000 yard mark with a half dozen TDs thrown in for good measure.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

diesel7982:
"The Jags don't throw enough in the red zone to get those TD #s up there, but he'll be the central cog of their passing game, which should produce 3500 yards at a minimum this season. He's healthy, and better yet, motivated, after a bad year filled with personal controversy."

Pigskin Fanatic:
"I guess you can't gauge Smith's performance without predicting how Leftwich will fare. The 57.2% completion percentage is middle of the pack at best and his 14 TDs vs 16 INTs look like a big red flag to me. Jimmy Smith has proven to be as consistent as any top receiver out there, but I'd say a top 20 effort at 75/980/8 (somewhere around what Joe Horn did last year) would be just right considering his age and his QBs talent."

beef:
"Jimmy Smith is now 35 years old and his number of receptions, yards, and TDs have gone each year since 2001. The 4-game suspension last year didn't help, but he has still been on the decline. I think that will change this year though as I don't feel that Jimmy Smith is done. His days of being a #1 fantasy WR may be long gone, but I do think he could put up some decent #2 WR numbers this year."

loser:
"The only thing I would worry about with Smith would be TDs. Backs and TEs for the Jags scored 16 total TDs last year, and now they add Greg Jones. (Rookie Reggie) Williams on the other side is a big, physical type suited for redzone activity. Jimmy probably won't get as many looks close in as he used to. All in all though, he should a very nice year and may break into the top 10."

H.K.:
"I think the key for Smith is targets per game. Last season he got 9.8 per week, and if that number were extrapolated over a 16 game season, he would have been #8 in the total targets category. We all agree that calculations like this are not 100% valid, but these figures indicate that Smith is clearly the #1 option in the passing game and there is no reason to believe that will change in 2004 with the same coach and QB."

Jimmy Smith Projections