Jason Wood's Thoughts

One of my main goals every year is to identify several quarterbacks who I know can be had in the middle to later part of the draft but, given the right set of circumstances, could be my every week starter. With such a heavy emphasis on the RB position early on, I typically am content to miss out on the top tier quarterbacks, but that doesn't mean I'm willing to pass up elite QB production.

In 2004, Josh McCown is one of my primary quarterback targets. He's being drafted 21st among QBs in Antsports mock drafts; which is a testament to a) his inexperience and b) the woeful state of the Cardinals franchise for as long as memory serves. However, a closer look at both McCown and the 2004 Cardinals suggests reason for optimism; so much so that I believe McCown COULD be a viable QB1 and a very solid QB2 this season. Consider:

1. Dennis Green's impact as an offensive mastermind - Dennis Green took over the moribund Cardinals franchise and has already made overtures about being in playoff contention in year one. While such a goal probably is overly optimistic in 2004, there is every reason to expect the Cardinals offense to improve immediately. In 12 seasons as an NFL coordinator and head coach, Green's team have been nothing short of fantastic offensively; particularly throwing the ball.
   
   

   Year	Team	Tot Off		Play Selection		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats
   		Pts	Yds	Run%	Pass%	Att	Yds	Y/R	TDs	Cmp	Att	Yds	Y/A	TDs	INTs
   1986	SF	374	6285	47%	53%	510	1986	3.89	16	353	582	4299	7.4	21	20
   1987	SF	459	6192	51%	49%	524	2237	4.27	11	322	501	3955	7.9	44	14
   1992	Min	374	5192	52%	48%	497	2030	4.08	19	258	458	3162	6.9	18	15
   1993	Min	277	5005	46%	54%	447	1624	3.63	8	315	526	3381	6.4	18	14
   1994	Min	356	6094	38%	62%	419	1524	3.64	11	409	673	4570	6.8	18	20
   1995	Min	412	6233	40%	60%	433	1733	4.00	10	402	642	4500	7.0	33	16
   1996	Min	298	5445	44%	56%	435	1546	3.55	7	331	561	3899	7.0	24	19
   1997	Min	354	5578	45%	55%	449	2041	4.55	14	319	540	3537	6.6	26	16
   1998	Min	556	6428	46%	54%	450	1936	4.30	17	327	533	4492	8.4	41	16
   1999	Min	399	6122	44%	56%	422	1804	4.27	13	316	530	4318	8.1	32	21
   2000	Min	397	6148	46%	54%	428	2129	4.97	14	307	495	4019	8.1	33	18
   2001	Min	290	5463	40%	60%	376	1609	4.28	10	335	555	3854	6.9	23	23
   Average		379	5849	45%	55%	449	1850	4.12	13	333	550	3999	7.3	28	18

   
   
   
2. Dennis Green anointed McCown - One of the first things Green did upon taking over the Cardinals was anoint McCown the starting quarterback and further suggest the team would not pursue any of the elite QB prospects in the 2004 draft. Some viewed that as coach speak, yet, entering training camp McCown is firmly entrenched as the starter and has Green's vote of confidence. A few weeks ago, Green went so far as to compare McCown to Brett Favre, "He reminds me a lot of Favre. He is a tremendous athlete, 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, with 4.6-speed and a vertical leap of 39 inches." Green also predicted that McCown will "set the NFL on fire."
   
   
3. The O-line will improve, or die trying - For years the Cardinals mammoth offensive line was supposed to be on the verge of greatness. Yet, the line has underperformed consistently. This season, Green is making wholesale changes including releasing veteran center Pete Kendall (and replacing him with rookie Alex Stepanovich), benching L.J. Shelton and moving Leonard Davis to tackle.
   
   
4. McCown's secret weapon: Mobility - Mobility is an asset in that it allows a QB to avoid the rush, make plays outside the pocket and keep himself healthy when (if) the line play breaks down. But for fantasy purposes it's even more valuable because of the disparity between the points rewarded for rushing and passing yardage. What many may not understand about McCown is that he's one of the fastest QBs in the league; and a superior athlete. After the NFL QB competition in Hawaii, several other quarterbacks (including Matt Hasselbeck and Joey Harrington) raved about McCown's athleticism saying he was the best of the bunch. McCown averaged almost 25 yards rushing per game last year as a starter, which equates to 400 yards. While I don't foresee him running that much, I would be shocked if he fell short of 250 yards and 2 or 3 touchdowns.

Positives

• McCown is the unquestioned starter for a Dennis Green coached team; Green's teams have thrown for 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns on average!
• McCown is exceptionally athletic and should be able to make plays with his feet and, as importantly, avoid the pass rush should the line play falter in the early going
• The team will have to throw the ball plenty in order to stay in games with the way the defense looks entering training camp

Negatives

• McCown is unproven and is a career 56% passer with more INTs than TDs; albeit in very limited action
• The offensive line may be a year away from where Green wants it unless the young replacements for the deposed starters jell quickly
• McCown is likely to throw plenty of interceptions to go along with any commensurate TD production; so in leagues that penalize heavily for turnovers he's not as much of a breakout sleeper

Final Thoughts

Before training camp started, I was ready to anoint McCown as one of my main QB sleepers, a guy you could draft relatively late but who I thought had an excellent chance of finishing as a highly ranked QB2, possibly QB1 depending. However, the season ending losses of WR Anquan Boldin and RB Marcel Shipp have sent my expectations for the entire Cardinals offense crashing down. In my view, as talented as Dennis Green may be, there's a HUGE difference between WR Karl Williams and RB Emmitt Smith in the lineup versus Boldin and Shipp.

That said, Dennis Green has compared McCown to Brett Favre; heady praise after watching him work through mini camps and QB school. When you consider that, on average, Dennis Green's teams have thrown for 3,999 yards and 28 touchdowns; it's difficult not to embrace the upside McCown brings to the table under any circumstances. While I don't see him getting close to those numbers, 3,200 yards and 18-20 TDs should be a given barring injury. Add to that another 250-300 yards rushing and a handful of rushing touchdowns (who else is going to run it at the goal line?) and McCown should easily figure into the top 20 fantasy QBs; albeit he'll have his good games and his bad. Think of him as a decent bye week/injury fill in with upside depending on the development of Fitzgerald and the play of the unproven younger RBs behind Smith.

Marc Levin's Thoughts:

There is not a lot of history behind the Arizona Cardinals' 2004 starting quarterback. He's heading into his third year, but only started seeing extended playing time for the last four games of 2003. McCown put up decent enough fantasy statistics, but no real head turning performances. The best thing he did was put up 5 TDs to only 2 INTs in those four games while demonstrating a decent propensity for ground numbers.

Nevertheless, he is the almost certain starter for Dennis Green - a coach who likes to pass the ball. He also inherited several great targets. The team drafted Larry Fitzgerald as the third overall pick. Last year's out-of-nowhere stud WR Anquan Boldin is there to play catch with. Freddie Jones is a good pass catching tight end and, at least in 2002, Marcel Shipp showed he can catch the ball and make plays. Last year's first round pick WR Bryant Johnson is expected to make some steps this year, too. Good, potentially great, receiving corps.

The scouting report on McCown out of college was that he needed to work on his technique, and he needed to try reducing the loft on his deep ball. But, he has good size and speed and an accurate enough arm. He will go through some growing pains as he learns to read defenses and as opposing coaches game plan for him. Right now, the only quarterbacks behind him on the roster are Shaun King and John Navarre, and they do not pose a tremendous threat.

Plus, he will be playing for the Cardinals - a team that will probably be playing catch up in quite a few games. Finally, the Cardinals play in a division known for high flying offenses the last few years with Seattle, St. Louis and San Francisco on the table twice each. That could foreshadow some shoot out games.

For a final bonus, he can be had very cheaply in most drafts. That combination gives McCown a sleeper or flyer status, but I wouldn't be confident if I were forced to count on him for extended periods of the year for my quarterback numbers. In all, as a third QB, in a no-starter league, or in 2-QB mandatory leagues, McCown could be quite valuable on your roster. In traditional head to head leagues, he may be worth a roster spot if you wait until very late to draft your backup QB since his upside is much higher than most QBs selected as late backups.

Positives

• Pass-happy coach and on a team that will likely play a lot of catch up
• Great corps of young receivers
• Has some running ability
• He is in a good division for high scoring games

Negatives

• Very inexperienced and will make a lot of mistakes as he learns
• It is questionable whether he can not be counted on for long stretches as a fantasy starter, so as your only backup QB he is risky
• His offensive line has generally underperformed, so he is a risk to get the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome

Final Thoughts

Josh McCown has tremendous upside if the offense clicks. Denny Green will probably give him ample opportunity to work through his mistakes this year. He may be looked at as the team's QB of the future, and he could put up some good games this year, but in dynasty leagues you run the risk of him being replaced next year with a young gun. Also, he should be downgraded in leagues that heavily penalize turnovers. In all, he is worth a late roster spot if you need a backup or third QB.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Skkorpion:
"As a media member covering the Cards, I got to watch 13 minicamp practices this spring over a three week period. (QB Coach Mike) Kruczek worked and worked McCown on his fundamentals. Footwork mainly. 5 step drop, 4 big, one small, step up, swivel, balance, throw. Bad? Do it again. Over and Over. Same with all the other drops, turns, handoffs, fakes. And Denny Green is encouraging him to run."

Higgins:
"(1) I don't see King getting much time. Just from memory, DGreen prefers QBs that have strong arms (see Culpepper, JGeorge) to stretch the field. McCown fits that category... Shaun King most definitely does not.

(2) Furthermore, even if/when McCown struggles at times (inevitable), DGreen will want to keep him in there for further evaluation (is he AZ's QB of the future?). He will not bench McCown for any significant amount of time... in favor of a guy that will not likely figure into their future plans."

H.K.:
"I think McCown is in a great situation to put up stats, whether he will or not is up for debate, but his situation is great for FF. Here is the obvious way to break down McCown:

Pros:
1) Good system with Denny Green
2) Decent talent at OL & WR
3) Opportunity (lousy defense, poor running game)

Cons:
1) Lack of experience
2) Talent & ability to play at NFL level are ?'s at this point
3) Plays for Arizona, traditional wasteland for FF QBs"

KKrew:
"If you look at Josh McCown's career stats you'd probably conclude that he's definitely not worth having on your FFL team. 56% passer. 5 career TDs vs. 8 career INTs. He just hasn't had enough time in the NFL to create a resume. Oh, and did I mention that he's backed up by a guy who brought his team to within a bad call of the Super Bowl?

That's right. Shaun King was a call away from the Super Bowl What am I talking about? King led the Bucs into St. Louis in 2000 & almost came away with an NFC Championship. My memory has Tampa Bay within a TD and getting a terrible call on a Bruce first down catch. He made the grab but the 'catch' was ruled incomplete.

Anyway, the Bucs were all about defense then. However, King managed to get them to 10-6 that season. He was only accurate 54% of the time. But, he posted 23 Total TDs vs. 13 INTs. I think Shaun King has a great shot to be on the field in 2004 for the Cards! Therefore, McCown's numbers will be stunted!"

JimmyD:
"I really don't know a whole lot about McCown, but I don't need to. I just need to know the situation. A team with 3 very talented WR, a team with an good TE, a team with a pass oriented line up, a team with a coach that likes to throw and a team with a suspect defense makes it a very good situation for any QB. Also if the Big Man on Campus says that Josh is their guy, I'm not going question that."

Josh McCown Projections