Jason Wood's Thoughts

I've maintained for a long time that fantasy success comes down to two things: Ability and Opportunity. While Jones' abilities have yet to be fully determined, his opportunity couldn't have looked better for most of the offseason. After the release of Troy Hambrick, the Cowboys seemed committed to given Jones the ball 20 times a game as their feature back. But, it was too good to be true, and the Cowboys signed Eddie George one day after his release from the Tennessee Titans.

It's all about the opportunity

Bill Parcells furthered his already considerable legend last season by turning the Cowboys from a 5-11 NFC East laughing stock to a surprise 10-6 playoff team. What's most impressive is that Parcells achieved success with virtually the same roster from the prior season.

Despite last year's success, the team has plenty of room for improvement. The team ranked just 15th in offensive yards, and struggled in the running game. Despite running the ball 515 times (4th in the NFL), the team ran for less than 2,000 yards because it was only able to generate 3.88 yards per carry (24th in the league). Much of that problem came from the failure of Troy Hambrick to grab the brass ring. Hambrick was given the keys to the kingdom last season when Jerry Jones let Emmitt Smith move on to Arizona. Yet, coming into camp out of shape and failing to show marked improvement last year sealed his fate.

Enter 2004. Parcells has made moves to improve nearly every facet of the offensive personnel. He drafted Stephen Peterman and Jacob Rogers to bolster a line that's showing signs of age (particularly Larry Allen and G. DiNapoli). He brought in Vinny Testaverde to challenge (the now released) Quincy Carter, and the team signed Drew Henson as the long-term solution. The Cowboys acquired Keyshawn Johnson, a longtime Parcells favorite to improve the receiving unit. The pieces are in place, all Parcells needed was a centerpiece to power his run heavy offense; but instead of one back (Jones), Parcells is opting for two (Jones and George) - and we fantasy owners are lamenting that decision. Jones could have easily been atop the short list of rookie RBs who had a chance of breaking into the top 20 (at least one rookie RB has finished in the top 20 every year since 1970); but that's no longer a rational expectation.

Positives

• Jones is a well rounded back, capable of catching passes out of the backfield and taking the ball up the gut or breaking to the outside
• He's a better than average blocker; a necessity if he's to see significant playing time as a rookie
• Parcells is committed to running the ball, Troy Hambrick got 51 red zone carries last year (11th in the NFL) despite being woefully ineffective

Negatives

• Eddie George was not signed to play the role of dutiful backup; at best Jones is looking at splitting carries
• The Cowboys offensive line isn't considered among the league's best any longer, even with Larry Allen
• Is Thomas Jones' younger brother; hopefully being over-hyped isn't genetic

Final Thoughts

Julius Jones rose up the draft charts in his final year at Notre Dame. According to draft reports, Jones is quick to the hole and has fluid hips that make him a very good cutback runner. He's also fast enough to break long runs when he hits the open field. Although he didn't have much of an opportunity to catch passes at Notre Dame, he graded out as having very good hands and should emerge as a true two-way offensive threat with some experience.

Had Eddie George not been brought into the fold, I believe Jones could have flourished with a full workload; meaning 280-300+ carries in this offense. Whether those carries would have equated to 1100, 1200 or 1300 yards remains to be seen, but in any event that production equates to solid fantasy numbers. However, the Cowboys felt they needed the veteran presence as competition and thus, all hope of 280+ carries has realistically gone out the window.

I believe George's presence sets up a true committee approach this year, with both getting full series alternately. You can be sure Parcells wants to run the ball as much as he did last year; recall that Dallas ran the ball 515 times (4th in the NFL) and gave Troy Hambrick 51 red zone carries (11th in the NFL) despite his being ineffective and in Parcells' doghouse. Both Jones and George are in line for heavy doses of opportunity this year. As long as that patchwork line can hold together, Jones should be productive when given the chance, but the chances of his being a draft day steal are out the door until (if) Eddie George succumbs to injury.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

"He called Julius on Thursday night and told him 'You're our guy'." - Unnamed Cowboys official to the Sporting News, about a phone call that Jerry Jones allegedly made to Julius Jones 48 hours before draft day.

The sweet, sweet joy of a sure thing. A sure thing? Well, yes. Julius Jones is SURE to get a chance to carry the ball for a ball-control coach with a history of productive running backs. What will he do with that opportunity? Aye…that's where the debate begins in earnest.

First off, I don't buy the notion that Julius Jones is going to split time with Antowain Smith or Eddie George or James Stewart or Mayor McCheese. I'm observant enough to know that Bill Parcells and Jerry Jones didn't toss Troy Hambrick to the curb, pass on Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, and Chris Perry AND stay out of the Duce Staley/Corey Dillon free agency party just to bring Julius Jones in and have him split duties. If Julius Jones is alive and in the Dallas Metroplex come September, he's going to be carrying the rock plenty for America's team. Will Ritchie Anderson factor in heavily, especially on 3rd down and in passing situations? Yes. And there might be some other carries delegated around here and there. But Julius Jones is going to be the workhorse, and my money says he's going to do just fine. We're talking about a team that ran the ball 436 times last year. Even if gives up 40% of the carries to someone else, he's STILL going to get plenty of chances to make his mark.

First, the man himself. Julius Jones had a hot and cold career at Notre Dame. He lost the 2002 season to academic ineligibility, but reasserted himself in 2003 by leading the Irish in rushing for the 2nd time in 3 years. Jones has good vision and good burst, both inside and out. He's also got moves in the open field, having spent time returning kicks and making people miss. On the negative side, he's got to learn to hang on to the ball more and he's got to prove that he'll do the little things - like blocking - that keep young players on the field. Jones has good size (5'10, 220 roughly) and his quickness/speed are more than ample to play tailback in the NFL.

Secondly, let's look at the Parcells' history in the running game. In 16 years of coaching, Parcells' teams have…

• … been in the top 12 in rushing attempts 10 times
• … been in the top 12 in rushing touchdowns 9 times
• … been in the top 12 in rushing yards 6 times

Parcells has a history with selecting rookies and giving them a lot of work. He took Curtis Martin as a rookie, gave him the ball 368 times, and watched him run for 14 TDs and almost 1,500 yards. Not too shabby. Parcells historically likes to run the ball, and with a team featuring either Quincy Carter or Vinny Testaverde at quarterback and a stout defense, it's a safe bet the Cowboys will be running it plenty in 2004.

So, how does our man Julius Jones fit in? Well, Julius Jones impressed Parcells not just in postseason workouts, but also in the fact that he had the most "explosive plays" of the running backs in college last season. Apparently, Parcells and his staff felt that this Jones, more than Kevin, fit what they had in mind for the Cowboys running game. Can Julius Jones take the pounding of an every down back? He had 229 carries in the college season last year and managed to stay fresh enough to carry the ball 111 times for 654 yards and 6 TDs in the final month of the season. Despite what critics say, Jones appears to carry the load just fine, as evidenced by 5 games of more than 20 carries last year, including a 24 carry, 262 yard, 2 TD performance in a mid-season win against Pittsburgh.

Final Thoughts

I'm of the opinion that between Parcells coaching ability and Jones running ability, in conjunction with a decent offensive line and better than average defense, Julius Jones could be a major ball-carrying force from the first snap of the season. From a fantasy perspective, it would be foolish to overlook him just because he's a rookie. Lots of rookies step in and perform admirably. In point per reception leagues, his value is a bit muted as he likely won't catch as many passes as some of the other top running backs in the game. However, he can absolutely be expected to churn out top-24 rush numbers and is well worth a spot on your team as a RB2 or RB3 with significant upside. Ideally, you could snag him as your 3rd RB and in flex-leagues, taking him in the 3rd or even 4th round as your flex-runner could pay massive dividends.

Editor's Note****This spotlight was written before Eddie George signed. The facts remain the same but my enthusiasm for 2004 has been greatly tempered. I think Jones will have the opportunity to play plenty regardless. With Quincy Carter now gone, I could see the team leading the NFL in carries with little trouble. As such, I've modified my projections of Jones and while making him a RB2 on your team would be a mistake, he surely should be good for RB3 duty late or bye-week/depth coverage as an RB4.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Spartans Rule:
"While I was not overly impressed with Julius Jones in college, I have enough faith in the Tuna's judgment to believe that this guy is at least good enough to take the majority of the workload.

That said, I'm not convinced his situation is as wonderful as the majority believes. First of all, while I'm no expert on offensive lines, reading Jason Wood's team report on the Cowboys OL makes me cringe. It doesn't exactly sound like an earth-moving unit."

Kleck:
"There's nothing wrong with getting excited about Jones. Julius finds himself in a nice situation, but people might be over valuing him based on being a Bill Parcell's RB. I'm not ready to call Julius the next Joe Morris or Curtis Martin. He could end up being as good as those backs, but those are some big shoes to fill and I'll have to wait and see before I say he'll be able to do it. I'm expecting a decent year from Julius but nothing that would make him any higher than a #2 in a 12 team league."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"Now, many feel that Dallas is or was going to bring in a veteran back. Even if they do, I believe the job is Julius Jones to lose. He's been drafted to run the ball under one of the greatest coaches in the game today. It's the perfect situation for Julius, all he has to do is "Bring It" every single practice and game and being the starting running back for the Dallas Cowboys is his job."

Salty Bob:
"A domer homer who got to watch J. J. play quite a bit, here are my opinions:

Positives: He has good burst and has put up good stats in college, when he was eligible to play. If I remember right, he was used and effective on the screen plays. He has good enough vision and is patient enough to hit the holes created for him. Very effective on kick returns.

Negatives: Even with ND's "higher" academic standards, the academic ineligibility in 2002 speaks volumes to me. As does the inconsistency that he showed during the 2003 season; 4 games over 160 yds rushing (Stanford, BYU, Navy, Pittsburgh) and the 5 games with under 60 (Syracuse, BC, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan). Anecdotally, he seemed lazy and not self motivated. He also put the ball on the ground more than once, which will obviously not fly in a coach Parcells' led system."

Jackal:
"Julius Jones will easily crack a grand this year. If Hambrick can approach the mark, this kid should hit it. The line should be upgraded a little with a healthy and somewhat well conditioned Larry Allen. As far as losing carries, if any, it will be a few to Richie Anderson. Cason should not be a worry."

Julius Jones Projections