Jason Wood's Thoughts

Keenan McCardell has enjoyed a solid NFL career largely playing second fiddle to a superior receiver. The 12-year veteran first made his mark opposite Jimmy Smith in Jacksonville where in six seasons he averaged 83 receptions, 1066 yards and 5 touchdowns per season. Then, he moved on to Tampa Bay and played alongside Keyshawn Johnson as the team won a Super Bowl. Last year, most expected more of the same until Keyshawn's antics wore thin and McCardell ended up being the go-to receiver for the first time in his career. He also set personal bests for touchdowns (8) and yards per reception as a starter (14.0) and finished 10th among fantasy WRs.

This season, with Gruden bound and determined to prove that last year's non-playoff showing was a fluke, McCardell was in line to have another solid showing. Brad Johnson returns at quarterback, Keyshawn was sent packing to Dallas, and the Bucs added complimentary yet incomplete Joey Galloway to start opposite McCardell.

But then irrational decision making mucked up what would have been a good thing for all concerned. McCardell, sensing that at 34 years old he was nearing the end of his productive career, and figuring the team absolutely needed his presence with Keyshawn traded away, decided to demand a new contract. What many thought would be a temporary protest during voluntary minicamps turned into a full blown holdout with acrimonious statements on both sides. Two weeks into training camp, McCardell is nowhere to be found and the Bucs appear content to go on without him; having made no overtures to discuss a new contract.

In the meantime, rookie first rounder Michael Clayton has received valuable playing time in camp that he otherwise would not have enjoyed if McCardell was present. And most recently, the team signed Tim Brown, a favorite of Gruden's from his days as the Raiders head coach.

So, now the question becomes, will McCardell realize he lacks negotiating leverage and report to camp? And if so, will he immediately be welcomed back and handed a starting spot?

Evaluating the WR Depth beyond McCardell

What may have looked like a weakness at the start of the offseason is arguably a strength at this point.

• Joey Galloway - Acquired via trade from the Cowboys in exchange for Keyshawn Johnson



• Tim Brown - Mr. Raider was signed early in camp following his release after 16 years in Oakland



• Michael Clayton - Polished collegiate receiver from LSU, hailed by Jon Gruden as one of the true playmakers in this year's draft class



• Joe Jurevicius - Tall, former tight end and excellent red zone threat is battling injury but remains a viable option upon is return



• Bill Schroeder - Speedy veteran with problematic hands but capable as a deep threat



• Charles Lee - In limited action last season amassed 33 receptions for 432 yards as the Bucs' 4th receiver

Are any of these receivers a true WR1? Probably not (Clayton may be someday but not as a rookie) but neither is McCardell truth be told. And that's the problem. While Keenan enjoyed consistently solid production and rose to the occasion last season, his salary (a little over $2 million per season) is commensurate with his place in the pantheon of NFL receivers.

I would suggest there are three likely scenarios, each which has a different fantasy outlook. Keep in mind that his average draft position is currently 32nd among WRs which no doubt builds in the assumption that he may not play:

• Scenario One: McCardell reports to camp - Sensing the futility of his negotiating ploy, McCardell reports to camp and after clearing the air with the coaching staff, probably has to "earn" his starting job back. Given his familiarity with the personnel and system, I see no reason why he wouldn't resume his position in the starting lineup. Obviously under this scenario he's a screaming value pick as a mid to late round draft choice.



• Scenario Two: McCardell is traded or tendered his release - The coaching staff appears ready to move on without him; but we'll really know if that's true later in the preseason. If Gruden and his assistants believe the current WR corps is talented enough to win with, I would not be surprised if McCardell was released outright OR traded for a mid round draft choice. Under this scenario, I would expect McCardell to immediately land with another team in need of WR help and contribute, with expectations being muted for the first few weeks as he acclimates to his new surroundings. In this scenario he would also be a fantasy draft day steal.



• Scenario Three: McCardell holds out and the team doesn't budge from its position - If neither side is willing to budge, and the Bucs see no reason to simply let McCardell walk presuming there are no pressing cap issues, he could be forced to sit out and not collect his paycheck. Remember that the Bucs played hardball with Keyshawn last year, effectively dismissing him from the team but not releasing him. This situation would be the most disastrous from a fantasy perspective, as McCardell can't help anyone if he's not on the field.

Playing the Odds: McCardell is a draft day value pick

Under the three aforementioned scenarios, two of the three would result in McCardell playing a significant role this year. Even if he was relegated to WR2 status again on another team, keep in mind that he's finished in the top 25 as a WR on five occasions. What's interesting is that it appears most fantasy owners are assuming the worst case scenario to be the odds on favorite, that's the only explanation for his draft position. I don't see why the Bucs would be content to get nothing for McCardell if they were ready to move on without him, and teams like the Dolphins, Cardinals and Chargers would have to find the idea of acquiring him attractive. Don't be afraid to roster McCardell as your WR3 or WR4 with the understanding that you're playing the odds that he'll be a contributor somewhere; and in that situation he's too talented to not be among the top 20-30 at his position, in my view. Draft accordingly.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

As of this writing, Tampa Bay receiver Keenan McCardell was threatening a hold out from training camp and he was not showing up to the team's minicamps The media reports from Buccaneer-land indicate the team is not willing to restructure McCardell's contract (at least not to the numbers he was demanding) and is prepared to open the season without McCardell on the roster. Apparently, despite a career year for McCardell in 2003, the team does not think of McCardell as a true #1 receiver. Its draft of Michael Clayton in the first round and trade of disgruntled Keyshawn Johnson for speedster Joey Galloway seem to support that opinion.

It is a shame to start a Player Spotlight with such questions, but those questions overshadow McCardell's achievements in 2003. He did, in fact, have a career year in 2003. He finished with the most TDs of his entire career, he had his highest YPR in a decade, and he finished in the top-10 for fantasy WRs (under standard performance rules). Plus, he plays on a John Gruden offense that likes to throw the ball and he plays with a QB in Brad Johnson who spreads the ball well and, at least in 2003, looked for McCardell in key game situations. That said, this is a 34 year old receiver, heading into his 14th NFL season. He is not expected to repeat his 2003 performance. Throw in the holdout threat, and there are a lot of fantasy questions about McCardell for 2004 - especially if you are drafting well before the season starts.

Another question regarding McCardell is a chicken-and-egg thing. Does a solid #1 receiver across from McCardell make his numbers better or does McCardell's play make his numbers like a second #1 receiver? McCardell's best play has always come while playing across from another receiving threat - Keyshawn Johnson in Tampa Bay for most of 2003, and Jimmy Smith in Jacksonville. If McCardell starts for the Bucs, do his numbers plummet simply because no true threat plays across him? Who would be playing opposite McCardell if he did return? The team has many options. Joe Jurevicius should be returning, the aforementioned Clayton and Galloway are on board, and the team saw some promise from big (6'3", 227 lbs) WR Charles Lee, who finished the season looking very strong while replacing benched starting WR Johnson. With that receiving crew, no wonder the team is not overly concerned with meeting McCardell's contract demands.

The final question regarding McCardell is what his value would be if traded. This is an open-ended question that you will need to gauge as the season draws close. As of this writing, there was no indication McCardell would be traded or to whom, but McCardell's determination combined with the team's stance indicates a trade is not outside the realm of possibilities. If he were traded to a team in need of an experienced receiver (read: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, San Francisco, or Baltimore), the situation he were in would dictate his worth - in Baltimore, he is not as likely to put up good fantasy numbers as if he went to Kansas City or Denver.

In terms of a fantasy re-draft, McCardell could be the ultimate low risk/high reward player. Let me explain. At last examination, McCardell was leaving the board in 12-team mock drafts under standard performance rules somewhere around the 29th receiver and somewhere between the late 7th to early 8th rounds. That is generally the area you grab your third WR. Though McCardell suffered new-team-itis in 2002 with his lowest fantasy output since he was a part-time player for the Cleveland Browns, and though he had one poor fantasy year for the Jaguars (1999), McCardell has been worth an annual fantasy start for many years now. Since 1996, his average fantasy finish for WRs is 23.6. In seasons in which he plays 16 games, he has put up fantasy finishes of 23, 17, 33, 17, 19 and 10 at the WR position.

He is especially valuable in pt/reception leagues. McCardell has averaged over 80 receptions per year since he gained a full-time starting WR gig with the Jaguars in 1996. In short, if McCardell ends up playing a 16-game season for any team in 2004, he is likely to well exceed his draft spot. And, if he goes back to the Bucs, he could easily be a top-20 WR again, with top-12 potential. That would make him an excellent value for where he is being drafted. Finally, if he does NOT put up great fantasy numbers in 2004, and you drafted him near his current ADP, you have not spent too much to acquire the player.

That makes for an excellent low-risk/high-reward player. Obviously, in dynasty and keeper leagues, his value is minimal as he is unlikely to have more than one or two good years left. And, his value is a bit less in survivor leagues where you have no in-season moves available. However, in a normal re-draft, McCardell should be a target while his value stays low. And, if his value remains depressed in your draft after his situation is resolved, look fro him as your WR3 and be happy with the depth provided by the move. If he goes earlier than you would take him, consider it a bullet dodged as there are enough factors working against McCardell that he should not be one of your prime targets.

Positives

• He has a history of success as a fantasy receiver



• If he plays for the Bucs in 2004, the factors of HC Gruden, QB Johnson, and McCardell's average 80 receptions per year indicate he could have a very successful fantasy season and outshine his draft spot



• There are sufficient receiving options on the Bucs that defenses can not double McCardell without paying a price.

Negatives

• He is currently holding out, the two sides are FAR apart on terms, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels



• 34 years old and 14 years in the league mean his superlative '03 numbers are unlikely to be surpassed (or even matched) in 2004



• There is the possibility that McCardell could miss the first couple of games of 2004, be traded to a different, run-oriented team, or otherwise have such an uncertain future that drafting him right now contains a risk he will be unproductive

Final Thoughts

If you are considering McCardell, you are right to worry about his current contract situation. This battle has all the makings of a dug-in fight, not simply a veteran seeking to avoid Florida's heat in July training camps. That said, McCardell knows he has two or three years - tops - left in the league. I sincerely doubt he wants to spend this one - likely the last where he could still put up Pro Bowl type numbers - on the sidelines. I expect McCardell to miss no more than one game of the season, if that. And, if he plays, I expect him to perform well. Last year, the Bucs showed with WR Keyshawn Johnson that they will take no guff. Yet, my belief is they would trade McCardell rather than have him sit out in 2004. Better to get something in return for a 34-year old receiver than have him sitting out the season in protest and coming back at 35 years old, right?

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

BGP:
"Perhaps the best reason to draft McCardell is that Gruden is his coach.

Gruden's first two seasons with the Bucs:

2003: 592 passing attempts, 421 rushing attempts
2002: 567 passing attempts, 414 rushing attempts

I haven't heard any rumblings that the Bucs want to drastically alter this scheme. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Tampa produce a pair of 1000 yard receivers in 2004 (McCardell and Galloway). Both WRs should be good value."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"As I look into my crystal ball, I see McCardell signing with the Bucs. For a guy who claims to like money so much, I just don't see how the guy starts missing paychecks, it just doesn't make sense. He's only got so many years left and if he sits out, he'll be thinking about losing 2.5 million for the rest of his life."

Family Matters:
"It seems McCardell is undervalued every year. While I wouldn't call him a stud, I certainly think his numbers prove he is a very good receiver. I do feel he will not hold out. As for this year I will assume he plays 16 games in TB."

bostonfred:
"I'm not saying he can't repeat last season, or even come close. I'm saying it's unreasonable to expect that a possession receiver who had little competition for targets last year is going to improve at 34 years old when three more targets are added to/back to the mix. I think his downside is (unstartable), which seems fairly likely, his upside is (last year), which seems highly unlikely, and his most likely case is (mediocre starter), which is most likely of all. Not really the kind of guy I target."

Biabreakable:
"McCardell's season last year was not so much a fluke. He caught 94 passes for 1207 yards in 2000. 93 catches for 1110 yards in 2001. But it was a result of the circumstances there also. He is capable of doing it again but that is his ceiling and he has downside being 34 years old now, not being on good terms with Gruden and many more WRs competing for targets than he had last year."

Keenan McCardell Projections