Jason Wood's Thoughts

Kellen Winslow has been universally hailed as a special talent; that's without question. He's as well rounded and NFL-ready as arguably any tight end to come into the league in the last decade and that includes Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap and Jeremy Shockey. As a pass catcher, he's got soft hands. As a blocker, he is much further along than the aforementioned players were entering the league. Athletically, only Tony Gonzalez - who played power forward - matches up. And from a preparedness perspective, Winslow happened to learn the game from his father - one of the best to ever play the position.

If that weren't enough, his first college coach Butch Davis, now coach of the Cleveland Browns, traded up in the draft to acquire his services. Davis, and offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie, are both on record expecting Winslow to be the focal point of the offense and a perennial Pro Bowl player. The team went so far as to hire Rob Chudzinski, Winslow's college position coach, as the team's TE coach.

In other words, few players will enter the league with as tailor made a situation as Winslow has this season. So while I don't see any way Winslow won't be a good TE this year, I believe people may be overrating Winslow's prospects as many expect immediate greatness.

Problem #1: Will his hold out stunt his development?

Kellen Winslow is in camp, having signed a deal that makes him the highest paid TE in the NFL; but he held out for nearly two weeks during negotiations. For as talented as Winslow may be, he has to be in camp to learn the system, the terminology, and most importantly, build rapport with his coaching staff, quarterback and other offensive teammates. Will his absence stunt his development, particularly early in the season?

Problem #2: The Offensive Line

Winslow isn't a big receiver lining up at TE; he's a complete tight end equally as promising as a blocker. With the team having one of the worst offensive lines on paper, protecting new QB Jeff Garcia and creating running lanes for William Green and Lee Suggs likely can't be accomplished without keeping other players in to block. Winslow is probably already the team's best blocker…so how often will it be feasible to send him out in passing patterns? Again, this is not to say Winslow won't be used heavily as a pass catcher, but I worry that his current average draft position suggests that he's a lock to achieve what I perceive as his absolute upside potential.

Positives

• As polished a pass catcher as there is at the position



• Elite pedigree, both in the college program he played for (Miami) and his paternal mentor (Kellen Winslow)



• The Browns coaching staff openly admits Winslow is being counted on as the focal point of the passing game

Negatives

• A protracted holdout could damper expectations



• Winslow has displayed bouts of immaturity; will he have the mental toughness to maximize his physical abilities?



• The Browns offensive line is woeful, Winslow may have to block much more than fantasy owners want/expect

Final Thoughts

Kellen Winslow is an exceptionally talented tight end, and to suggest he can be one of the best in the game is not hyperbole. However, the Browns are a team with quite a few question marks, one of which involves a suspect offensive line. His immaturity has to scare people, as does the notion of a protracted training camp holdout. Provided Winslow gets into camp sooner rather than later, I believe he should easily exceed 40 catches and 400 yards at a minimum; which puts him solidly among the top 10 fantasy TEs this year. But what's his upside? As long as you draft Winslow with an expectation of 600 yards and 4-6 touchdowns and nothing more, you should get a reasonable return on him; anything higher than that and you're giving the house odds. Draft accordingly.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

Kellen Winslow can block. Forget the rest. Why? Because if you have functional eyes and ESPN, you should know that he can catch, run, stiff-arm, and do all the things necessary to produce fantasy numbers. So, why is blocking important? Because football players - particularly tight ends - don't get on the field much as rookies unless they can block. Aside from recent phenoms like Tony Gonzalez and Jeremy Shockey, rookie tight ends that produce good fantasy numbers are often hard to come by. Are there exceptions? Sometimes. Randy McMichael had a good rookie year, but he was relegated to line blocking late in the year. Doug Jolley saw the field more and more as the season wore on as a rookie. Daniel Graham made some catches. But to find a rookie that's on the field for most of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs available, you've got to find a guy that can block. And KW2 can do that plenty well.

So, with the expectation that he can block and thus he'll stay on the field, what can we expect of young Winslow this season? Well, there are a couple schools of thought on this one. Some say that with the depth at wide-receiver (Northcutt, Morgan, Davis, Jackson), the new quarterback (Garcia), the suspect line, and the unsettled running game, Winslow will do more blocking than pass-catching. Others say that even as a rookie, Winslow immediately becomes the best pass-catcher on the Browns and a veteran like Jeff Garcia will find him plenty. Personally, I think its going to come down right in the middle. The good news is that KW2 is going to stay on the field for run-plays, pass-plays, 4 wide sets, double TE sets, goalline packages, and 3rd and 20's. The bad news is I suspect Butch Davis is going to be overly-committed to establishing the run to try and loosen up pass-coverage.

What does this mean for Winslow's numbers? Well, ignoring the lack of tight end production under Davis in Cleveland (because the TE's weren't all that good), I think we can expect Winslow to benefit from a fair number of targets and a fair number of receptions longer in yardage than we've come to expect from bigger, slower tight ends. I suspect there will be a few plays drawn up for him to get single-coverage in the redzone and I certainly expect he'll roast more than a couple linebackers on 'seam' routes. Kellen Winslow II is a weapon, and he's going to be tough to cover. Even Butch Davis will have a hard time ignoring that.

Final Thoughts

Where should Winslow be drafted? That depends more on how effective you think the Browns offense will be than how effective you think Winslow will be. If you think the line can protect Garcia and open a few holes for Green/Suggs, than Winslow could get in the top-5 among tight ends right away. However, if you think that Garcia is going to be running for his life from the word "go" or that the run game will struggle to get over 3.5 yards per carry, I'd temper my KW2 enthusiasm. Most likely, it will come down somewhere in the middle and Winslow will be a solid Tight End option where some weeks are better than others. I think his ability trumps all but about 1 or 2 other NFL tight ends, but his upside within the team falls short of guys like Alge Crumpler and Boo Williams, who are parts of more productive offenses. Select Kellen as a Tight End #1? Absolutely. Reach for him looking for the next Gonzo right out of the gate? I wouldn't be so sure. He's going to be a great one, but the Browns need to settle some things before that's going to happen.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Editors note: These comments were made before Winslow signed with the Browns.

Unlucky:
"There are two reasons I think Winslow will put up one of the best rookie seasons ever for a TE: Kellen Winslow, Sr. and Jeremy Shockey. As the son of a great TE, Winslow Jr. knows about the NFL and playing TE. Much like Peyton Manning's rookie season, Winslow Jr. will be more ready for the NFL than his peers. Jeremy Shockey caught 74 passes his rookie season after being drafted in the middle of the 1st round out of Miami. With Winslow Jr. also coming from Miami, and being drafted 6th overall, I have a good feeling that Winslow Jr. is at least as talented as Shockey."

Floyd The Barber:
"KW² is in the perfect situation for any tight end: A below average wide receiving corps, QB who doesn't like to throw deep and a head coach who paid a kings ransom to acquire him. The key factor is that the really great TEs in the league are the focal point of their team's aerial plans (Gonzo, Sharpe, Heap). Winslow steps into a similar situation."

loser:
"We all know that Winslow displays outrageous talent coupled with a penchant for outrageous controversy. His physical skills cannot be questioned. There has to be a little cause for concern due to a possible holdout etc., but I agree with those here that he will figure prominently from day one regardless of his contract situation.

The thing that would concern me the most about him is geography. In the Butch Davis era, no Browns TE with at least ten catches has averaged 10 yards-per-reception. Obviously, there are many factors. Butch Davis has seemed confused about how to use his TE so far in his tenure, insofar as going with an H-Back type approach or using them in a more traditional manner."

Harv72b:
"Don't get me wrong, I agree that Winslow is probably the best tight end prospect ever to join the NFL. However, he's still a rookie, which means it should take him some time to get acclimated to the league (and to see what happens the first time he gets leveled by division foe Ray Lewis). And, he still plays for the Cleveland Browns. Under Coach Davis, this is what the leading TE has done on past Browns teams:

2001 O.J. Santiago - 17-153-2
2002 Mark Campbell - 25-179-3
2003 Steve Heiden - 18-134-0

On the other hand, here are the stats for tight ends on teams quarterbacked by Jeff Garcia:

1999 Greg Clark - 34-347-0
2000 Greg Clark - 38-342-2
2001 Eric Johnson - 40-362-3
2002 Eric Johnson - 36-321-0
2003 Jed Weaver - 35-437-1"

Dancing Bear:
"I have to disagree with some of the postings above which state that Winslow is better than established players who have performed year-in year-out. There is no rookie who is better than an established player [in any sport], until that player puts on the pads, sees action and produces. Until then he is nothing put speculation.

Also, the last time I checked, Winslow does not even have a contract ..."

Kellen Winslow II Projections