Spotlight - RB Kevan Barlow, San Francisco 49ers
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Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and Marc Levin, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Jason Wood's Thoughts
In many people's eyes, Kevan Barlow is the consolation prize of the first round.
All offseason long I've heard talk of the "Big 8" meaning (in no specific
order):
- Priest Holmes
- LaDainian Tomlinson
- Ahman Green
- Clinton Portis
- Deuce McAllister
- Shaun Alexander
- Edgerrin James
- Jamal Lewis
The consensus opinion seems to believe that after these 8 running backs, there's
a dramatic falloff in the fantasy prospects of the remaining ball carriers;
either due to added risk or less ability.
I respectfully agree and would be more than happy to have the 9th pick this
year - and I would use that pick on Kevan Barlow (provided it wasn't a point
per reception league, then I would use it on Randy Moss and take Barlow 10th
but
I digress).
To refresh people's memory, Barlow spent the better part of his first three
seasons splitting carries with Garrison Hearst; an older but more polished and
professional player in Barlow's early years. In part-time action, Barlow acquitted
himself well, as both a runner (4.7 career YPC) and receiver (9.7 career YPR),
but couldn't lay claim to sole possession of the 49ers ground game because a)
Hearst was an excellent blocker, Barlow was not and b) the 49ers valued the
concept of using both interchangeably.
But last season, when Garrison went down with injury, Barlow finally had the
spotlight to himself and couldn't have done more with the opportunity if he'd
picked the winning numbers in the California lottery. In the final 4 weeks of
the season, as the full time starter, Barlow produced:
- 80 carries
- 433 yards rushing
- 5.4 yards-per-carry
- 160 receiving yards
- 5 touchdowns
Project those numbers over the course of a full season and you have:
- 320 carries
- 1,732 yards rushing
- 640 receiving yards
- 20 touchdowns
- 357 fantasy points!
Now, I'm not suggesting to you that Kevan Barlow is going to put amass 2,300+
total yards and 20 touchdowns as a full time starter, but it does illustrate
that even if one assumes some degradation in his productivity over a full season;
he's looking at the opportunity to put up very strong fantasy numbers.
Enter 2004 and Barlow's opportunity couldn't be better. The team jettisoned
Hearst, opening the door for Barlow to be the team's workhorse. If that wasn't
proof enough of his opportunity, consider that the team also rewarded him with
a 5-year, $20 million contract which includes an $8 million signing bonus.
But aren't the changes on offense going to put too much pressure on him?
The 49ers are undergoing a wholesale youth movement this year, including a new
quarterback tandem (Rattay and Dorsey), new receivers (Lloyd, Wilson, Woods)
and several new offensive linemen. Many pundits believe this signifies a rebuilding
year; and conventional wisdom projects the Niners as one of the league's worst
teams. Whether that's ultimately true or not, it SHOULD NOT be a reason to doubt
Barlow's opportunity. Don't think for a second that a team has to be good or
have a productive passing game for the running game to produce fantasy points.
Did LaDainian Tomlinson have trouble last year? Did Corey Dillon fail to put
up huge numbers playing for the Bungles a few years ago? Did Domanick Davis
fail to make an impact last year because of the Texans woeful passing game?
Every year RBs put up big time numbers on bad teams; don't forget that.
The offensive line will be better than last season. I've also heard
many a derisive comment about the 49ers offensive line; citing the departure
of veterans Derrick Deese and Ron Stone. Yet, unless these same people are stuck
in a time warp, they should realize that neither Deese nor Stone were irreplaceable
parts. Both missed considerable time a year ago due to injuries, and at their
age and price tag, will not be hard to replace. And luckily for Barlow and 49ers
fans alike, the team is well positioned to do just that thanks to Kwame Harris,
a mammoth yet surprisingly mobile tackle entering his 2nd year and Justin Smiley,
a rookie guard who's been the Niners most dominating linemen in training camp.
Add those two to returning starters Eric Heitmann, Jeremy Newberry and Scott
Gragg, and the 49ers have the makings of a solid, even downright good, offensive
line.
Positives
- Barlow has steadily improved in each season, his YPC has gone from 4.1 to
4.7 to 5.1 while increasing his total carries in the process
- The 49ers are abandoning the West Coast offense and plan to more heavily
use the run under new OC Ted Tollner; and Barlow is the lone feature back
for the first time in his career
- The Niners schedule looks very favorable at first blush
Negatives
- Barlow has yet to show he can handle a 20+ carry workload, game in, game
out
- Opposing defenses are sure to focus on Barlow more explicitly than in the
past with the passing game devoid of proven playmakers
- His red zone and goal line opportunities may be limited if the overall offense
takes a step back from a year ago; don't count on a ton of touchdowns
Final Thoughts
If your 1st round draft choice is in the latter half of the round, Kevan Barlow
has to factor into your evaluation. I personally would select him without hesitation
over anyone other than Randy Moss and the "Big 8"; and wouldn't be
surprised if he outperforms a few of the RBs who get taken ahead of him. Barlow
has all the physical tools required of a franchise back
he's big, fast,
elusive, can catch the ball, and can pound out yards after initial contact.
The team is committed to him after making him toil in a committee system for
three years. With the passing game in flux, expect Barlow to get a heavy dose
each and every week. While opposing defenses will key on him like never before;
I believe the added workload and favorable schedule more than make up for any
worries born out of his being the focal point. Barlow, if healthy, will be a
top 10 fantasy back this year; take that to the bank.
Marc Levin's Thoughts
It is finally Kevan Barlow's time to shine in both the fantasy world and in
the NFL after a couple of years of high hopes and unfulfilled sleeper expectations.
Barlow was unable to beat out departed 33-year old RB Garrison Hearst for the
starting gig for the 49ers, but he was finally handed the starting reigns when
Hearst was injured after week 13 in 2003. He has not looked back. He played
well enough the last four games of 2003 that the team allowed Hearst to leave
via free agency - along with most of the other veteran skill players on offense
- and the team committed to keeping the defense intact and building with youth
on the offensive side of the ball.
The organization started that effort by giving Barlow a contract extension
and making him the focal point of the offense for 2004. There is no competition
for his job, the team has scrapped the dink and dunk west coast offense, and
it has migrated to a more traditional attack. The quarterback stays in the pocket.
Therefore, Barlow's blocking responsibilities - a weak point for him the last
couple of years - will likely be limited to chipping-off on the blitzing player
and then swinging out for a pass or blocking up the middle after a play-action
fake.
The concerns for Barlow, however, remain rather large. First of all, he has
a history of injury. One of the reasons he was unable to wrest the starting
job away from Hearst was that Hearst continued to play at a high level while
injured, but Barlow had a string of nagging injuries that kept him sidelined.
Second of all, the coaching staff was disappointed with Barlow's lack of effort
rehabbing his injuries in the 2002-2003 offseason. That indicated a lack of
motivation and maturity. Third of all, Barlow has not had the full-time starting
running back responsibilities since he has been in the league and it is unclear
how he will adjust to the role of being counted on consistently rather than
being responsible to bring a spark while sharing carries.
Most concerns, though, seem to center around the fact that the 49er offense
has undergone a major overhaul with Barlow the only known offensive commodity
remaining from last year- and he will be facing a lot of 8-men-in-the-box. Some
people say "if he was so talented, how come he couldn't beat out Hearst
- and if he was unable to beat out Hearst, how can I count on him to be the
only thing going in the 9er offense?" That concern is something each fantasy
player will have to wrestle their own mind around.
But, I, who have been a staunch detractor from the Barlow supporters while
Garrison Hearst was on the team, see the situation in San Francisco as exactly
what Barlow needs to succeed. I believe the youth on offense was the right move,
and handing the offensive pressure to Barlow is exactly the motivation he needs.
And those saying Barlow is not talented enough to be an exceptional fantasy
running back because he was unable to beat out Hearst are reaching at straws
- it is clear that an overwhelming amount of talent is not necessary to make
a fantasy stud if the back is given over 325 carries and over 50 catches - and
Barlow will get both of those numbers in 2004 if he remains injury free. And,
anyway, I believe Barlow has plenty of athleticism to be successful at the running
back spot - he was simply unable to overcome an amazing amount of willpower
and heart from a talented, former first round running back in Garrison Hearst.
My only lingering concern for Barlow is his ability handle the 16-game schedule
injury-free. It is also unclear how well Barlow will be able to play with the
little nagging injuries that always occur for running backs in the NFL. He was
never asked to push through those injuries while Hearst was starting. It is
these concerns that have dropped Barlow to the bottom of the first round in
most drafts. He is below the elite-9 level of backs that include Tomlinson,
Holmes, McAllister, Green, Portis, Alexander, James, Taylor, and Lewis. He is
also probably less reliable for your squad than the elite WRs of Moss and Harrison.
He does fit in that level of backs after those players are gone. That is a
level that includes backs that also have question marks such as Dillon, Faulk,
Domanick Davis, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, and Travis Henry. I believe he
should be one of the top-3 of that group - and probably should be drafted before
the #3 WR on your board - whether that is Torry Holt or another receiver. I
recommend grabbing a second back from that group to pair with Barlow.. If Barlow
lives up to expectations, that combination should be very good. If Barlow stumbles,
you have spent a second high draft pick on a back that could save your season
at the running back position. In this writer's opinion, Barlow should be selected
anywhere between the #11 and #15 overall pick in most drafts.
He has increased value in dynasty or keeper leagues since he is so young and
has so much to prove. He is signed with the 49ers for a few more years, and
the team will be building for the future around Kevan Barlow as they have a
lot of time and money invested in him. I expect this year to be a learning year
for Barlow - for him to sniff at the RB1 fantasy backs - and for him to be a
fantasy force for the next several years.
Positives
- Young, athletic back who the team is rebuilding itself around
- Has no competition for the starting role and does not have to worry about
a RBBC emerging
- Is playing in a division that is one of the weakest defensively, and which
engages in a lot of high scoring shoot-out games
Negatives
- Has never had the full-time feature back responsibilities before and the
team has rebuilt with a lot of inexperienced and youthful players
- Barlow will be facing a lot of 8-in-the-box if the rebuilt offense is unable
to keep defenses honest - and it is unclear how well Barlow will run against
that type of front
- Question of whether he can hold up physically over a 16-game season as
the starting back being given heavy us
Final Thoughts
I have always been very down on Kevan Barlow as a fantasy player, as an NFL
player, and as an individual. I continue to see a lot of immaturity from him.
As the centerpiece of the offense, one of the things I will be looking at heavily
in these preseason games is how much of a motivator Barlow develops into on
the sideline. I will also be keeping a wary eye out for any injuries as Barlow
has a history of getting dinged up during the preseason. There is no one on
the team to take his place if he gets hurt - Barlow is a man on an island in
the fantasy world - new offense, new starting role, never done it before as
a starter, a lot to prove after several years of disappointment. I don't expect
many folks to pass on Barlow - and he has tremendous upside simply because of
the workload he is expected to take on this year. But, I like reliability out
of my number one back. I will not be risking a first round pick on Barlow -
and would choose one of the top-2 WRs of Harrison or Moss over him (especially
in a pt/reception league) - but, I would have no problem going back to back
from the bottom of the first round with Barlow and another back to start my
draft.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here.
TheDirtyWord:
"With Garcia at QB, I would be much higher on Barlow, but with the Niners
passing offense looking drenched behind the ears, my thinking is that teams
are going to force Rattay to beat them with his pedestrian receiver corps. Thus,
Barlow is sure to receive the bulk of attention from defensive coordinators
and I'm not sure Barlow can be a big time producer under those circumstances."
TheFanatic:
"I think this is a case of be careful of what you wish for. Now he's
the guy on offense. The ONLY guy on offense. I don't think he can handle 9 guys
in the box like [Jama] Lewis or [LaDainian Tomlinson]. I think he misses a couple
of games with injury and when he's in, the 9ers will have to decoy the guy around
the goal line in order to win games."
podeep:
"The SF Offense is being written off by the majority, but I don't agree.
Granted, all of the starters (sin Barlow) are first-year starters, but the team
needed this. Giving these young guys the opportunity to excel puts them in a
position to surprise. Of course, it's purely opinion, but I believe that they
will significantly outperform critics' expectations.
Barlow is the cornerstone of this 'new' offense. When Rattay/Dorsey struggle,
Barlow will be the crutch - whether on screen passes/dump offs, draw plays,
etc. He has the ability and the opportunity, and I believe that he will take
advantage of both."
Irish:
"I don't understand all this Barlow is barely going to rush for 1000
yds this yr talk. Barlow rushed for over 1000 yds last yr in a yr in which he
only started 4 games. I don't want to hear about the departure of Garcia either,
Garcia was an unknown commodity at one time just like Rattay only that Rattay
played pretty good in the playing time he got last yr. Barlow is a talented
back who is going to get the majority of touches for his team. SF will be in
most of their games this yr, but because they are a young team they will probably
lose more than they win."
chinawildman:
"IMO 8-9 men in the box is the most OVERUSED and OVERRATED term when
it comes to analyzing a RB's potential for success. It's not as if the defense
gets to bring a 12th guy on the field people. If everyone on O picks up their
blocks and the RB makes two people either miss or runs them over (something
Barlow is very capable of doing), there's nothing but green between him and
the end zone."
Kevan Barlow Projections
Source |
Rush
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Yards
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TDs
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Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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FntPts
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Jason Wood |
310
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1360
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8
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45
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375
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2
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234
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Marc Levin |
330
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1353
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9
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47
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376
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2
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239
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Message Board Consensus |
304
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1310
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8
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50
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374
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2
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228
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