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Spotlight - RB Kevan Barlow, San Francisco 49ers


Jason Wood's Thoughts

In many people's eyes, Kevan Barlow is the consolation prize of the first round. All offseason long I've heard talk of the "Big 8" meaning (in no specific order):

  • Priest Holmes

  • LaDainian Tomlinson

  • Ahman Green

  • Clinton Portis

  • Deuce McAllister

  • Shaun Alexander

  • Edgerrin James

  • Jamal Lewis

The consensus opinion seems to believe that after these 8 running backs, there's a dramatic falloff in the fantasy prospects of the remaining ball carriers; either due to added risk or less ability.

I respectfully agree and would be more than happy to have the 9th pick this year - and I would use that pick on Kevan Barlow (provided it wasn't a point per reception league, then I would use it on Randy Moss and take Barlow 10th…but I digress).

To refresh people's memory, Barlow spent the better part of his first three seasons splitting carries with Garrison Hearst; an older but more polished and professional player in Barlow's early years. In part-time action, Barlow acquitted himself well, as both a runner (4.7 career YPC) and receiver (9.7 career YPR), but couldn't lay claim to sole possession of the 49ers ground game because a) Hearst was an excellent blocker, Barlow was not and b) the 49ers valued the concept of using both interchangeably.

But last season, when Garrison went down with injury, Barlow finally had the spotlight to himself and couldn't have done more with the opportunity if he'd picked the winning numbers in the California lottery. In the final 4 weeks of the season, as the full time starter, Barlow produced:

  • 80 carries

  • 433 yards rushing

  • 5.4 yards-per-carry

  • 160 receiving yards

  • 5 touchdowns

Project those numbers over the course of a full season and you have:

  • 320 carries

  • 1,732 yards rushing

  • 640 receiving yards

  • 20 touchdowns

  • 357 fantasy points!

Now, I'm not suggesting to you that Kevan Barlow is going to put amass 2,300+ total yards and 20 touchdowns as a full time starter, but it does illustrate that even if one assumes some degradation in his productivity over a full season; he's looking at the opportunity to put up very strong fantasy numbers.

Enter 2004 and Barlow's opportunity couldn't be better. The team jettisoned Hearst, opening the door for Barlow to be the team's workhorse. If that wasn't proof enough of his opportunity, consider that the team also rewarded him with a 5-year, $20 million contract which includes an $8 million signing bonus.

But aren't the changes on offense going to put too much pressure on him? The 49ers are undergoing a wholesale youth movement this year, including a new quarterback tandem (Rattay and Dorsey), new receivers (Lloyd, Wilson, Woods) and several new offensive linemen. Many pundits believe this signifies a rebuilding year; and conventional wisdom projects the Niners as one of the league's worst teams. Whether that's ultimately true or not, it SHOULD NOT be a reason to doubt Barlow's opportunity. Don't think for a second that a team has to be good or have a productive passing game for the running game to produce fantasy points. Did LaDainian Tomlinson have trouble last year? Did Corey Dillon fail to put up huge numbers playing for the Bungles a few years ago? Did Domanick Davis fail to make an impact last year because of the Texans woeful passing game? Every year RBs put up big time numbers on bad teams; don't forget that.

The offensive line will be better than last season. I've also heard many a derisive comment about the 49ers offensive line; citing the departure of veterans Derrick Deese and Ron Stone. Yet, unless these same people are stuck in a time warp, they should realize that neither Deese nor Stone were irreplaceable parts. Both missed considerable time a year ago due to injuries, and at their age and price tag, will not be hard to replace. And luckily for Barlow and 49ers fans alike, the team is well positioned to do just that thanks to Kwame Harris, a mammoth yet surprisingly mobile tackle entering his 2nd year and Justin Smiley, a rookie guard who's been the Niners most dominating linemen in training camp. Add those two to returning starters Eric Heitmann, Jeremy Newberry and Scott Gragg, and the 49ers have the makings of a solid, even downright good, offensive line.

Positives

  • Barlow has steadily improved in each season, his YPC has gone from 4.1 to 4.7 to 5.1 while increasing his total carries in the process


  • The 49ers are abandoning the West Coast offense and plan to more heavily use the run under new OC Ted Tollner; and Barlow is the lone feature back for the first time in his career


  • The Niners schedule looks very favorable at first blush


Negatives

  • Barlow has yet to show he can handle a 20+ carry workload, game in, game out


  • Opposing defenses are sure to focus on Barlow more explicitly than in the past with the passing game devoid of proven playmakers


  • His red zone and goal line opportunities may be limited if the overall offense takes a step back from a year ago; don't count on a ton of touchdowns


Final Thoughts

If your 1st round draft choice is in the latter half of the round, Kevan Barlow has to factor into your evaluation. I personally would select him without hesitation over anyone other than Randy Moss and the "Big 8"; and wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms a few of the RBs who get taken ahead of him. Barlow has all the physical tools required of a franchise back…he's big, fast, elusive, can catch the ball, and can pound out yards after initial contact. The team is committed to him after making him toil in a committee system for three years. With the passing game in flux, expect Barlow to get a heavy dose each and every week. While opposing defenses will key on him like never before; I believe the added workload and favorable schedule more than make up for any worries born out of his being the focal point. Barlow, if healthy, will be a top 10 fantasy back this year; take that to the bank.


Marc Levin's Thoughts

It is finally Kevan Barlow's time to shine in both the fantasy world and in the NFL after a couple of years of high hopes and unfulfilled sleeper expectations. Barlow was unable to beat out departed 33-year old RB Garrison Hearst for the starting gig for the 49ers, but he was finally handed the starting reigns when Hearst was injured after week 13 in 2003. He has not looked back. He played well enough the last four games of 2003 that the team allowed Hearst to leave via free agency - along with most of the other veteran skill players on offense - and the team committed to keeping the defense intact and building with youth on the offensive side of the ball.

The organization started that effort by giving Barlow a contract extension and making him the focal point of the offense for 2004. There is no competition for his job, the team has scrapped the dink and dunk west coast offense, and it has migrated to a more traditional attack. The quarterback stays in the pocket. Therefore, Barlow's blocking responsibilities - a weak point for him the last couple of years - will likely be limited to chipping-off on the blitzing player and then swinging out for a pass or blocking up the middle after a play-action fake.

The concerns for Barlow, however, remain rather large. First of all, he has a history of injury. One of the reasons he was unable to wrest the starting job away from Hearst was that Hearst continued to play at a high level while injured, but Barlow had a string of nagging injuries that kept him sidelined. Second of all, the coaching staff was disappointed with Barlow's lack of effort rehabbing his injuries in the 2002-2003 offseason. That indicated a lack of motivation and maturity. Third of all, Barlow has not had the full-time starting running back responsibilities since he has been in the league and it is unclear how he will adjust to the role of being counted on consistently rather than being responsible to bring a spark while sharing carries.

Most concerns, though, seem to center around the fact that the 49er offense has undergone a major overhaul with Barlow the only known offensive commodity remaining from last year- and he will be facing a lot of 8-men-in-the-box. Some people say "if he was so talented, how come he couldn't beat out Hearst - and if he was unable to beat out Hearst, how can I count on him to be the only thing going in the 9er offense?" That concern is something each fantasy player will have to wrestle their own mind around.

But, I, who have been a staunch detractor from the Barlow supporters while Garrison Hearst was on the team, see the situation in San Francisco as exactly what Barlow needs to succeed. I believe the youth on offense was the right move, and handing the offensive pressure to Barlow is exactly the motivation he needs. And those saying Barlow is not talented enough to be an exceptional fantasy running back because he was unable to beat out Hearst are reaching at straws - it is clear that an overwhelming amount of talent is not necessary to make a fantasy stud if the back is given over 325 carries and over 50 catches - and Barlow will get both of those numbers in 2004 if he remains injury free. And, anyway, I believe Barlow has plenty of athleticism to be successful at the running back spot - he was simply unable to overcome an amazing amount of willpower and heart from a talented, former first round running back in Garrison Hearst.

My only lingering concern for Barlow is his ability handle the 16-game schedule injury-free. It is also unclear how well Barlow will be able to play with the little nagging injuries that always occur for running backs in the NFL. He was never asked to push through those injuries while Hearst was starting. It is these concerns that have dropped Barlow to the bottom of the first round in most drafts. He is below the elite-9 level of backs that include Tomlinson, Holmes, McAllister, Green, Portis, Alexander, James, Taylor, and Lewis. He is also probably less reliable for your squad than the elite WRs of Moss and Harrison.

He does fit in that level of backs after those players are gone. That is a level that includes backs that also have question marks such as Dillon, Faulk, Domanick Davis, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, and Travis Henry. I believe he should be one of the top-3 of that group - and probably should be drafted before the #3 WR on your board - whether that is Torry Holt or another receiver. I recommend grabbing a second back from that group to pair with Barlow.. If Barlow lives up to expectations, that combination should be very good. If Barlow stumbles, you have spent a second high draft pick on a back that could save your season at the running back position. In this writer's opinion, Barlow should be selected anywhere between the #11 and #15 overall pick in most drafts.

He has increased value in dynasty or keeper leagues since he is so young and has so much to prove. He is signed with the 49ers for a few more years, and the team will be building for the future around Kevan Barlow as they have a lot of time and money invested in him. I expect this year to be a learning year for Barlow - for him to sniff at the RB1 fantasy backs - and for him to be a fantasy force for the next several years.

Positives

  • Young, athletic back who the team is rebuilding itself around


  • Has no competition for the starting role and does not have to worry about a RBBC emerging


  • Is playing in a division that is one of the weakest defensively, and which engages in a lot of high scoring shoot-out games


Negatives

  • Has never had the full-time feature back responsibilities before and the team has rebuilt with a lot of inexperienced and youthful players


  • Barlow will be facing a lot of 8-in-the-box if the rebuilt offense is unable to keep defenses honest - and it is unclear how well Barlow will run against that type of front


  • Question of whether he can hold up physically over a 16-game season as the starting back being given heavy us


Final Thoughts

I have always been very down on Kevan Barlow as a fantasy player, as an NFL player, and as an individual. I continue to see a lot of immaturity from him. As the centerpiece of the offense, one of the things I will be looking at heavily in these preseason games is how much of a motivator Barlow develops into on the sideline. I will also be keeping a wary eye out for any injuries as Barlow has a history of getting dinged up during the preseason. There is no one on the team to take his place if he gets hurt - Barlow is a man on an island in the fantasy world - new offense, new starting role, never done it before as a starter, a lot to prove after several years of disappointment. I don't expect many folks to pass on Barlow - and he has tremendous upside simply because of the workload he is expected to take on this year. But, I like reliability out of my number one back. I will not be risking a first round pick on Barlow - and would choose one of the top-2 WRs of Harrison or Moss over him (especially in a pt/reception league) - but, I would have no problem going back to back from the bottom of the first round with Barlow and another back to start my draft.


Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"With Garcia at QB, I would be much higher on Barlow, but with the Niners passing offense looking drenched behind the ears, my thinking is that teams are going to force Rattay to beat them with his pedestrian receiver corps. Thus, Barlow is sure to receive the bulk of attention from defensive coordinators and I'm not sure Barlow can be a big time producer under those circumstances."

TheFanatic:
"I think this is a case of be careful of what you wish for. Now he's the guy on offense. The ONLY guy on offense. I don't think he can handle 9 guys in the box like [Jama] Lewis or [LaDainian Tomlinson]. I think he misses a couple of games with injury and when he's in, the 9ers will have to decoy the guy around the goal line in order to win games."

podeep:
"The SF Offense is being written off by the majority, but I don't agree. Granted, all of the starters (sin Barlow) are first-year starters, but the team needed this. Giving these young guys the opportunity to excel puts them in a position to surprise. Of course, it's purely opinion, but I believe that they will significantly outperform critics' expectations.

Barlow is the cornerstone of this 'new' offense. When Rattay/Dorsey struggle, Barlow will be the crutch - whether on screen passes/dump offs, draw plays, etc. He has the ability and the opportunity, and I believe that he will take advantage of both."

Irish:
"I don't understand all this Barlow is barely going to rush for 1000 yds this yr talk. Barlow rushed for over 1000 yds last yr in a yr in which he only started 4 games. I don't want to hear about the departure of Garcia either, Garcia was an unknown commodity at one time just like Rattay only that Rattay played pretty good in the playing time he got last yr. Barlow is a talented back who is going to get the majority of touches for his team. SF will be in most of their games this yr, but because they are a young team they will probably lose more than they win."

chinawildman:
"IMO 8-9 men in the box is the most OVERUSED and OVERRATED term when it comes to analyzing a RB's potential for success. It's not as if the defense gets to bring a 12th guy on the field people. If everyone on O picks up their blocks and the RB makes two people either miss or runs them over (something Barlow is very capable of doing), there's nothing but green between him and the end zone."


Kevan Barlow Projections

Source
Rush
Yards
TDs
Rec
Yards
TDs
FntPts
Jason Wood
310
1360
8
45
375
2
234
Marc Levin
330
1353
9
47
376
2
239
Message Board Consensus
304
1310
8
50
374
2
228
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