Jason Wood's Thoughts

Every year since 1970, at least one rookie running back has finished among the top 20 fantasy runners. Kevin Jones, the 30th pick out of Virginia Tech to the Detroit Lions, has to be among the favorites to keep that streak alive. Jones is the prototypical back physically (6'0", 225 lbs.) and dominated (when healthy) at the collegiate level. If Jones was so dominant in college, why did he fall to the 30th pick you ask? Because two years ago Jones suffered a knee injury which sidelined him, and as a result, it robbed him of the sprinter speed that made him one of the most sought after high school recruits in Pennsylvania history. The 4.6 40-time at the Combine scared teams off; which shows you how myopic some NFL personnel men really are. Listen to teammates, former opponents and coaches alike, and they all agree that Jones has "game speed" and remains a home run threat. I seem to remember another heralded college RB who didn't get drafted as highly as some expected due to a slow 40-time, his name was Emmitt Smith.

In any event, Jones joins a revamped Detroit Lions team; which enjoyed the most dramatic makeover in the NFL this offseason:

• Drafted RB Kevin Jones
• Drafted WR Roy Williams
• Signed TE Stephen Alexander
• Signed WR Tai Streets
• Signed OL Damien Woody
• WR Charles Rogers returns from a broken collarbone

That's a SERIOUS injection of offensive firepower; giving HC Steve Mariucci and QB Joey Harrington a full complement of weapons for the first time in their combined tenure.

The most common complaints I hear about Kevin Jones' fantasy prospects are, as follows:

1. Steve Mariucci loves to use a committee approach at running back
2. Jones has to beat out three "talented" incumbents at the position
3. The Lions offensive line is questionable

In order:

1. Mariucci is NOT by nature does not favor a committee-based rushing attack. If you look back at his years with the 49ers, you'll see that his lead back averaged more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage and better than 7 touchdowns. Yes, Mooch split carries but that was because he had TALENT in the RB corps; but that talent never stood in the way of his lead back getting 250+ touches



2. Detroit's returning triumvirate of Shawn Bryson, Olandis Gary and Artose Pinner COMBINED for:
   • 310 carries
   • 1,089 rushing yards
   • 3.5 YPC
   • 5 rushing TDs
   • 72 receptions
   • 449 yards receiving
   • 6.2 YPR
   • 0 touchdowns

   Those are hardly insurmountable totals for one franchise back let alone three veterans. Make no mistake about it, Kevin Jones will get EVERY opportunity to be the lead back sooner rather than later. If he doesn't have the talent to get more than 3.5 yards per carry; than I stand corrected, but if he has the type of ability I believe he possesses, don't be surprised to see one or two of the veteran incumbents released before camp breaks.
   

3. The offensive line is woeful - There's no question the line play could use improvement, a team doesn't dead last in team offense without some blame being cast upon the line. However, I don't believe the line is as dire a situation as some believe. Yes, the Lions ranked 29th in yards-per-rush…but one could argue that no one of Jones' caliber was making the line look good. Just take a look at how horrible the San Diego Chargers line looked prior to drafting LaDainian Tomlinson; no change to the line yet Tomlinson taking the carries raised the offensive rushing production from near last to middle of the pack. A good back can do that for you. When you consider that Damien Woody bolsters a young line, and probably joins Jeff Backus as a potentially devastating left side, the line won't be reason enough for Jones not to enjoy fantasy success.

Positives

• Jones is in the right place, at the right time…a young power back on a rebuilding offense with a head coach who knows how to use the run to set up the pass



• Reports from mini camp suggest Jones has the breakaway speed back which didn't show in his Combine work



• Jones has the size, speed and most importantly, vision to be an every down workhorse in the NFL

Negatives

• Jones enters training camp "behind" three other running backs; he must be on the top of his game to reasonably get a shot to start the opener



• Jones must develop his receiving skills; while not projected as a poor receiver per se, his collegiate offense simply never utilized him as a receiving weapon



• The Lions were dead last in offense last year; improvements or not the turnaround likely will take more than one season

Final Thoughts

It took everything in my power not to project Kevin Jones higher than I have; only my doubts about QB Joey Harrington and the uncertainty of the line play leave me wondering how quickly Jones will ascend into the NFL elite at the position. However, I do believe that by the season opener, Jones will have shown himself to be the class of the Lions RB corps and will start out of the gates. Should he start from the beginning of the season, I see no reason why 250+ carries and 1,300+ total yards aren't a bare minimum. I wouldn't hesitate to roster Jones in the early 3rd round as an excellent RB3 or RB2 if you go with another position in one of the first two rounds. Don't be surprised if he's closer to RB10 than RB20 when all is said and done.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

It's amazing that no one is more excited about Kevin Jones than they are. Well, scratch that. Maybe SOME of you are excited, but there is nowhere near the fervor I would expect of a speedster type with game-breaking ability and open field moves going to the starting job on a team that runs the West Coast Offense. I, too, have been guilty of not giving Kevin Jones his due in favor of the "other" rookie Jones (Julius), but its time to lay out the pros and cons of the man that was just about the most exciting runner to watch from the past college season…

Detractions…

"Jones isn't as fast as we thought. His workout 40-time was slow!" - FALSE. Kevin Jones is plenty fast. He gobbles up yardage at a dizzying rate, able to bounce outside the tackles and turn the corner as well as any back in this year's class. He had a bad day running at his workout, but he's in no way slow.

"Jones is prone to being easily tackled" - FALSE. I'm the guy that said this. However, I realize I may have been embellishing it a hair. The biggest problem with Jones running is that he is tackled easily. That's true, but it's not like he's Ron-Dayne-Fall-At-the-Line easy to tackle. Jones's biggest problem is that he is a very good running back who is easily tackled at times, not that he's a bad running back. Ron Dayne and TJ Duckett were tough to tackle in college. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but my previous criticisms should not be counted as a black streak across Kevin Jones's prospects.

"Jones doesn't have the pass-catching ability to keep Shawn Bryson off the field, thus he likely won't be a RB2, much less RB1." - FALSE. We often make the mistake of thinking just because a guy didn't catch many balls in college that he CAN'T catch many balls as a rookie. Nothing could be further from the truth. A running back like Kevin Jones isn't going to be asked to run a fly-route against Darren Sharper in a division game. He's going to be asked to catch swing passes, screen passes, and dump-offs. If you need proof, track down LT2's receiving stats at TCU (10 in 2000) or Domanick Davis's receiving stats at LSU (16 receptions in 2002). Mooch will spell Jones with Bryson, but make no mistake: The idea is for Kevin Jones to become an every down back and threat to score at any given time - both running the ball and catching it.

Positives…

"He's a playmaker in the first degree." - TRUE. If you watched Jones run last year, it had to be evident to you that he possesses fantastic open-field moves. Over the course of a 250 carry season (which I think is reasonable for KJ), the difference between 3.5 ypc and 4.5 ypc is a single 15 yards a game. More specifically, it's a run or two each Sunday where a tackle is broken or a tackler is evaded. Jones has the moves to make people miss, which may lend more to his value than any other skill.

"He has a nose for the end zone" - TRUE. It's tough to argue with a guy that scored once every 13.25 touches as a Junior. Or once every 17 times as a Sophomore. Or once every 35 times as a Freshman. See the trend? Jones got better and better, culminating in a stellar Junior season. He has both breakaway ability and redzone size to get the ball across the goal line.

"He has great size" - TRUE. Jones measures 6'0, 225. It doesn't get much better than that.

His situation….

"Steve Mariucci likes splitting the carries." - FALSE. Send the guy that started this rumor a case of Bud Light because he's helping Sharks find value. In 1997, Hearst ran it 234 times. In 1998, he carried it 310 times. In 1999, Charlie Garner took it 241 times. The next year he ran it 258 times. Hearst ran 252 times in 2001 and 215 times in 2002. Footballguys' projections give Kevin the ball 225 times. That estimate is in line with Hearst's low-mark when he was splitting carries with Kevan Barlow. Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner don't remind me of Kevin Barlow, how about you? That doesn't even factor in receptions. Furthermore, I doubt the Lions traded up into the first round to select a guy for a strict committee situation. Even if they did, you're likely looking at the Footballguys' projections being the LOW mark of expectations. In other words, if Jones produces, he's going to continue getting opportunities. If he produces WELL, he may push the other runners to the bench all together. Will he get 300 carries? Probably not, but he could well creep close to 275. At 4 yards a carry, that's 1,100 yards.

Final Thoughts

I started this write-up ready to tell you that the Lions won't run the ball enough for Jones to truly have fantasy worth for where he'll be selected (ADP 3.09). I wanted to tell you that the team's defense will get blown out enough that running in the second half will be an afterthought. I wanted to be down, down, down on Kevin Jones as a fantasy selection this season. However, after looking at the player, the offense, the opportunity, the competition, and the coach, I'm more sold on him than ever. Would I be comfortable with Jones as my RB2? Probably not. As my RB3/Flex? Yes. We're talking about a guy who (a) is fast and has great moves, (b) is going to a team void of talent in the backfield that (c) plays indoors, on turf, with the West Coast Offense and (d) has a starting job in the NFL. "Ability + Opportunity = Success" in my book.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

thepig-pen:
"So you guys aren't from MI, huh? I'm here to tell you that Pinner could be pretty good. I actually saw his games with the Lions last year. The only reason he went in the 4th was because of the injury that kept him out until the last few games last year (Which, trust me, no one but us die-hards were watching).

All that being said, we are going to see the dreaded (for fantasy purposes) committee thing here in Detroit. For one thing, we all know what Mooch did with the Hearst/Barlow situation. By mid season it'll be 50/50. At the start, I see KJ possibly even losing a few carries a game to Bryson although barring injuries Bryson will be the water boy by week 4."

guderian:
"Pinner does not equal Garrison Hearst and any close examination of Mariucci's track record in San Francisco will clearly reveal that he is not a "RBBC" coach--contrary to the opinion of fantasy footballers that drafted Barlow last year in hopes that he would be a feature back. The #1 back in Mariucci's offenses averaged 1,190 rushing yards, 429 receiving yards and 7.5 TDs--hardly RBBC numbers. So we can finally put to rest the absurd assertion that Mariucci is an RBBC coach."

The Nature Boy:
"Detroit was dead last in rushing last year with only 1,338 yards (83.6 per game) for a 3.6 per attempt average and a measly 5 TDs. I look for big time additions like Woody and Jones to bring them from the bottom to about the 20'ish area. This make team rushing yards around 1,700 and I look for KJ to get to anywhere from 65% to 75% of those yards (Let's say 70%)."

drunkenmonks:
"The poor 40 times that hurt Jones's draft stock (for that he can thank his father, who trained him) may have helped the Lions land a steal."I don't care what that 40 time said, I'll put it on everything: He's one of the fastest backs in the league," guard Damien Woody said. "If he gets out in the open, it's a done deal. I've never played with a running back with that type of talent. All he needs is a crack to get into the open." As for the 6-foot-2-inch, 217-pound Williams, Woody said he possesses "Randy Moss-type skills.""

rebel34:
"Kevin Jones: (6-0 211 4.4) What this guy has is a ton of "pad speed." And we all know that speed cannot be taught. Yes, his personal workouts were clocked in the high 4.5's but put pads on and there isn't many that can catch him. He has great lateral movement, swivel hips, a great burst, and outstanding footwork. Every time he touches the ball he can take it to the house. He was the 6th rated high school back coming in to Virginia Tech. He split carries with Lee Suggs for most of his college career so he has fresh legs and low mileage. He has the rare ability to accelerate out of his cuts and his vision is outstanding. Catching the ball out of the backfield is something that he needs more work on. He needs to learn to catch the ball away from his body. I would also like to see him be more patient behind the line and let the holes open up before him. FANTASY IMPACT: As a runner he's the closest thing I've seen to Marshall Faulk. He's not quite as polished a receiver but is a sure fire franchise back."

Kevin Jones Projections