Jason Wood's Thoughts

Not every young quarterback is going to pan out. For every Donovan McNabb or Peyton Manning there are Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith. With that in mind, I believe Kyle Boller's days as a starting quarterback in the NFL are numbered. To be clear, barring injury I see Boller playing the lion's share of the season for the Ravens; however, I think it will become clear that, for the 2nd time, HC Brian Billick campaigned for the wrong young QB.

Boller entered the league based more on his strong arm and athleticism than anything he accomplished on the field. For his collegiate career, Boller completed less than 50% of his passes; and for those that don't pay attention to college football, usually college passing efficiency ratings are much higher than the pros. I did a quick search (certainly not exhaustive) and couldn't find one example of a collegiate QB in the last 20 years who had a sub 50% completion percentage and went on to a Pro Bowl berth. Not one. Now, some of you are saying, "who cares about Pro Bowls, I want someone to help my fantasy team!"

Fair enough, but I'm not sure how Boller can help you accomplish that either. Boller played the majority of nine games last year and threw for a meager 140 yards per game, completing just 51.8% of his passes. Equally disturbing was his 5.6 yards per attempt, one of the lowest in league history. He looked lost in the heat of the battle, which isn't unexpected in a QBs first go around in the league, BUT, he also failed to show any progress as the season wore on. Finally an injury put him out of his misery for the year.

This offseason the Ravens tried to improve Boller's situation through additions on and off the field. The addition of Jim Fassel, a noted QB guru and former Giants head coach, as his mentor will give Boller the best chance to improve his footwork and fundamentals. However, unconfirmed reports after minicamp had Fassel lobbying Billick to acquire a veteran QB because Boller didn't have what it took to succeed in the league. Whether that's true or not, Fassel isn't a miracle worker. On the field the team tried to acquire Terrell Owens, but that fell through and they settled for Kevin Johnson. While Johnson is certainly an improvement over the what the Ravens had otherwise, the projected starting tandem of Johnson and Travis Taylor remains one of the least inspiring in the league.

Expect the Ravens to win on the back of Jamal Lewis and a stifling defense yet again in 2004. On the few occasions where the Ravens have to get a big play from the passing game to win, I'm betting Boller comes up short; and Billick and GM Ozzie Newsome will be back at the drawing board this offseason.

Positives

• The team's failure to bring in a competent backup (Kordell does not count) means Boller will remain the starter through any growing pains



• Boller has a huge arm and is athletic, the raw material many believe is necessary to forge a franchise QB



• The presence of Jamal Lewis and the league's best offensive line means that Boller will have plenty of opportunities to make plays downfield as defenders key on the running attack

Negatives

• Boller is a career sub-50% passer, including college



• He must show he's able to stay healthy; which is predicated on getting rid of the ball faster than he did a year ago



• The receiving corps remains one of the least impressive in the NFL, despite the addition of Kevin Johnson

Final Thoughts

Boller is currently the 31st QB off the board according to Antsports, and I believe that's an appropriate place to consider rostering him. Boller should be the last full time QB drafted, and I would personally consider several of the unsettled QB situations (e.g., Fiedler/Feeley, Warner/Manning) over him in redrafts, as well. Until Boller shows he can become accurate enough to win games; which haven't been shown since he was in high school, I see no reason why his physical talents will supersede the lack of fundamental ability.

Marc Levin's Thoughts:

The main knocks on Kyle Boller coming out of college were his inconsistency and his propensity for injuries. He fulfilled those expectations in his rookie year as he put up uneven performances from the QB spot for the Ravens and was injured in week 10, essentially ending his season. The positive reports about Boller coming out of college were that he has a rifle for an arm, he has prototypical size for an NFL QB at 6'3" and more than 230 pounds, and he has mobility, accuracy, and can make any throw.

Now, let's see if he can turn that ability into 2004 production. Unfortunately, he will likely have to do so with limited opportunities. The Ravens trailed the rest of the league in pass attempts in 2003 by a wide margin. Then again, who need to throw when you have RB Jamal Lewis going for a couple of grand on the ground and a defense that rarely forces you to play catch-up.

However, there is reason to believe the Ravens will throw more this year. First, there is a natural regression in 2000 yard rushers the following year, so the team may not be able to rely on Jamal Lewis as much as last year. That also leaves aside whether his legal troubles will cause him to miss any games. Second, quarterbacks tend to have rapid progression from their first to their second years in the league. Third, while WR Marcus Robinson is gone, he is replaced by WR Kevin Johnson, who has reliable hands and runs excellent routes. Fourth, two words: Todd Heap.

There is admittedly not a lot to get enthusiastic about in that list, but it is something. On the down side, Boller could easily see a year where he averages 20 or 21 attempts per game if the Ravens run as well as they did last year. Also, while WR Ron Johnson seems to be an emerging talent, and while the team drafted a receiver to keep an eye on in Devard Darling, starting WR Travis Taylor has yet to live up to his potential. The receiving corps outside of TE Heap is, in a word, suspect. No wonder the team put the full court press on for Terrell Owens. Finally, backup QB Anthony Wright filled in well enough for Boller last year by throwing more TDs than INTs and by compiling a much higher YPA. But, he really is not a significant threat - HC Brian Billick wants Boller as his starter.

In all, fantasy expectations for Boller in 2004 are not tremendous. He certainly has more value in dynasty leagues since he may develop in a few years, but there simply is not a lot to hang your hat on with Boller this year. He is available late in most drafts, but other QBs drafted near where he typically goes likely have more potential to star for your team. As a one-week filler for a starting QB who is rarely injured, such as Brett Favre or Peyton Manning, he will do just fine.

Positives

• Prototypical QB body and talent - he has the ability to be a good QB in the NFL
• Has potentially reliable targets in Kevin Johnson and Todd Heap
• The second year in the NFL is much easier for quarterbacks and they tend to improve
• One of the best offensive lines in the league in front of him

Negatives

• Will he get to throw the ball? The team was last in the league in 2003 in pass attempts
• If Jamal Lewis misses time, how will that affect the Ravens offense? Could be a positive if Boller is forced to throw more, could be a negative with defenses keying on him
• If he struggles and the team is losing games, will Billick replace him with Wright or Stewart?
• Can he stay healthy for an entire season?

Final Thoughts

If you are relying on Kyle Boller as a starting QB for your fantasy squad you are either in a VERY large league or you are in a start-2 QBs league. Either way, you are probably not too happy about it. In typical re-draft leagues, there is a chance Boller could develop into a spot starter, but his best place is behind a reliable starter who rarely misses games, to be used only on bye weeks and in emergencies.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"No one can argue that the Ravens ran the ball well in 2003. No one can argue that the Raven's passing game was anemic in 2003. No receiver topped 57 catches (Heap bested the team with 57). Boller completed just 52% of his passes and he tossed more picks than TDs. Sure, the squad managed to make the playoffs. But, to improve, the Ravens must get better quality from their signal caller.

To that end, Brian Billick brought in Jim Fassel to tutor Boller. Fassell has a reputation as a QB guru (Oh, and Billick is thought to be an offensive genius). I can't really get my hands around those lofty perceptions so I'm banking on Boller being average, at best."

CalBear:
"Even after 4 years at Cal, and a year in the pros, I view Boller as an unfinished product. He's never had a receiving corps with the ability to match his athleticism and his arm, and as a late bloomer he's still growing into his role as an NFL QB. Despite the fact that he's viewed as a pocket passer, he ran a 4.6 40 at the combine and has a 35" vertical; you won't see him rambling around like Michael Vick, but he could easily grow into a mobile quarterback in the mold of Rich Gannon.

But it will take him at least another year. Billick has given him a strong vote of confidence by not brining in a veteran like Warner who would compete for the starting job; it's clear that Kordell is there for emergencies only. Given this opportunity, I think by the end of this year Boller will be a decent QB2, with upside as the team gains confidence in him and the offense opens up a little."

TheDirtyWord:
"The problem for Boller is that even in college, he was never a very accurate QB. While his arm strength is obviously top tier...at this point in his career, it's doubtful that he could approach being a 60% passer. Quite frankly a more moderate goal for him should be 55%. If he were to hit on 55% of his passes with 475 attempts, he tops out at about 260 completions.

Last year, the NFL average yards/completion was 11.29. Boller came in at 10.86. Again, let's take a positive approach to Boller's development and assume that he can approach the league average as far as YPC is concerned and use 11.3 as a multiplier, Boller would throw for 2938 yards."

jurb26:
"Oh, how different things could have been if only TO had listened to the pleas of Ray Ray. Baltimore could have finally had their missing piece to the puzzle. A go to guy at WR. That and Boller may have had a reasonable target to pass to (other than Heap)."

Kyle Boller Projections