Jason Wood's Thoughts

LaDainian Tomlinson is one of the, if not THE, best players in the National Football League. In his first three seasons, Tomlinson has amassed:

• 1,024 carries


• 4,564 yards


• 4.5 yards per carry


• 37 touchdowns


• 238 receptions


• 1,581 yards receiving


• 5 receiving touchdowns

To put these numbers into perspective, you need to compare them to some of the other all-time great running backs who started from their rookie seasons onward.

3-Year Totals of Select RBs (Total Yards, Total TDs, Fantasy Points)

• L. Tomlinson - 6,145 yards and 42 TDs (867 FPs)


• B. Sanders - 5,391 yards and 47 TDs (821 FPs)


• E. Dickerson - 5,816 yards and 46 TDs (858 FPs)


• E. Smith - 5,034 yards and 43 TDs (761 FPs)


• E. George - 4,597 yards and 21 TDs (586 FPs)


• C. Martin - 4,689 yards and 37 TDs (691 FPs)


• T. Davis - 5,369 yards and 38 TDs (765 FPs)

In case you didn't realize it yet, Tomlinson is an absolute monster on the real football field and as importantly for our sakes, the fantasy football field.

What's particularly impressive about Tomlinson's accomplishments are that he's done all this while being the only legitimate threat on a woeful Chargers team. Consider that in his three seasons in San Diego, the passing offense has gotten progressively worse while Tomlinson's contribution to said passing attack has continued to increase. His rookie season may have caught some defensive coordinators by surprise, but the last two seasons Tomlinson has become more dominant despite being THE focal point of opposing defenses. There is no stopping him.

Positives

• The most talented multifaceted back in the NFL today



• Sure to be the focal point of the team's offense again in 2004



• A last place schedule should make for some easy weeks

Negatives

• With such a heavy workload comes a slightly increased risk of injury (i.e., he's taking more hits than anyone)



• If the offensive line worsens beyond last season (when it wasn't very good), can even Tomlinson remain unaffected?



• Regression to the mean suggests last year's season won't be repeated (but he can come close enough to dominate the fantasy landscape)

Final Thoughts

The Chargers appear set for another disastrous season. The team's best receiver is oft-injured and never productive Kevin Dyson and the QB situation remains in flux thanks to a protracted holdout by 4th overall pick Philip Rivers. Yet, no one in their right mind should expect anything less than greatness from Tomlinson. One factor to consider is the offensive line, which looks improved from a year ago with the addition of veterans Mike Goff and Roman Oben. Assuming C Jason Ball reports to camp (he's holding out for a new deal), Tomlinson should have more room to run this year; a dangerous proposition for the Chargers opponents.

The team will use him religiously again, they have no choice. Last year he became the first RB to have 1,000 yards rushing and 100+ receptions in a season; while history suggests he won't hit the 100 catch mark again, he should come close. Barring injury (a risk with any workhorse back admittedly), Tomlinson is among the top 2 or 3 fantasy players regardless of his supporting cast.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

LaDainian Tomlinson is arguably the league's best running back. He has a great combination of strength and speed, allowing him to run effectively inside or out. He has excellent vision, balance, and acceleration; he shows a nice burst through the hole and will break arm tackles. He is patient in letting his blocks develop, but is also a decisive runner who does not waste steps dancing in the backfield. Tomlinson averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season and led the AFC with 100 catches. He has the potential to be an even more effective receiver if the Chargers can let him release downfield instead of helping block the DE first. He has shown big-play ability as both a runner and receiver (and even had a passing TD last year). He scored 5 touchdowns from outside of 50 yards last year; leading all RBs; Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis were tied for second with three each. Tomlinson has also been very durable: he has yet to miss an NFL game.

Tomlinson was a great player from the day he set foot in the NFL, but his strong work ethic has made him want to improve every year. In fact, his total yards, total touchdowns, yards per carry, and receptions have increased every season so far. And Tomlinson spent this offseason working with a trainer to improve his muscle balance and joint integrity; he'd found that he was favoring his right hip in previous seasons (i.e., cutting to the left more often than the right), so he's worked to improve his ability to cut in either direction.

Positives

• Has physical talent up the wazoo, along with a great work ethic and attitude



• Is the focus of his team's offense, so he will get plenty of touches every game



• A dual threat whose receiving stats contribute significantly to his overall fantasy production

Negatives

• Defenses will key on him because the Chargers don't have much else on offense



• Already has 1,262 touches in just three years, a pace he may not be able to keep up



• The Chargers' offensive line returns zero starters from last year

Final Thoughts

LaDainian Tomlinson is the top fantasy prospect in the league this year, in my opinion. Many people have Priest Holmes ranked #1 because Holmes scored an insane number of touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. But I have concerns that Holmes will take a somewhat reduced workload this year because of his sore hip. Holmes is also at the age where running backs often experience sharp decreases in production. And finally, touchdown numbers aren't as likely to be maintained from year to year as yardage numbers are; and Tomlinson had over a 12% (i.e., about two games' worth) advantage in yardage last year.

I'll also say a word about the Chargers' offensive line. It was justifiably criticized last year for its poor play overall, but it wasn't all that bad in its run-blocking. The entire line is new this year -- five new starters -- but the same should again hold true. Guys like OG Mike Goff, OG Toniu Fonoti, and OT Courtney Van Buren are suspect in pass-protection, but are very good run-blockers. I therefore believe that the OL is not a reason to downgrade Tomlinson.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click click here.

Beerguzzler:
"Funny....everyone always talks about his supporting cast....but the most important part of his cast has improved. Oben has been brought in to play LT, Goff to play RG, granted not world beaters, but veterans that are durable (something that seems to have alluded charger Olines in the past years). Van Buren is penciled in at RT (he has talent, but is coming in to his 2nd year) and showed vast improvements in the 2nd half....granted that's because he was so raw to begin with. Regardless.....the oline has improved granted any improvement from the patchwork that was supposedly called an oline last year should have been expected."

Biabreakable:
"What I see is a young player improving and further refining his skills while being motivated to be the best he can be despite the circumstances and doing everything he can to carry his team on his back.

LT is 25 years old going into his 4th year in the NFL. With this personal dedication to excellence why would one think he will not continue to improve?? Was his performance the result of some lucky breaks in 2003?? I don't see it that way. I see him getting better under the worst of circumstances with every defense doing everything in their power to focus on stopping him.

This will continue."

fightingillini:
"Tomlinson is a stud....period. Everything you want in a RB....power, elusiveness, homerun ability, great receiver...Puts up great numbers even with a poor supporting cast...Proven to be durable...Not much else to say."

DrJ:
"LT has never appeared in a playoff game in his career. When you factor in the extra punishment a lot of backs are subjected to there, his load seems pretty light.

Compared to Emmitt, whose teams started going deep into the playoffs the 2nd year of his career, his load is nothing.

Look at just Ahman Green last season - they continued pounding him into the dirt until they were eliminated and the guy had 403 carries and 461 touches. That makes LT2's 313 carries and 413 touches seem like a walk in the park.

Taken in perspective, Tomlinson's load isn't that significant."

GrOOvus:
"Here's what I know:

1) LaDainian is the best running back in the NFL today.

2) The Chargers can not possibly be worse in all the other facets of the game than they were last year; most notably the offensive line. Boston leaving is going to help this team, not hurt it, the three good games he had were not anything compared to all the other garbage he brought with him.

From this I'd expect him to do not much worse than last year. He could do better (seriously). You tell me who you'd rather have with your first round pick. Maybe flip a coin with Priest? Nah, I'll take the younger guy not coming off a career year."

LaDainian Tomlinson Projections