Jason Wood's Thoughts

Marshall Faulk missed considerable time last year, putting many people behind the 8-ball early in the season as Faulk was a 1st round pick in nearly every draft across the country. However, those lucky enough to stay in contention without him were handsomely rewarded upon his return:

Final 8 Games of 2003 (Weeks 10-17)

• 167 carries (21 per game)


• 702 yards (88 per game)


• 4.2 YPC


• 33 receptions (4.1 per game)


• 224 yards receiving (28 per game)


• 10 touchdowns (1.25 per game)


• Five 100+ rushing games


• Went for at least 100 yards and/or 1 TD in every game

The bottom line is, when healthy, Faulk is still a force to be reckoned with. Perhaps he's no longer one of the elite at his position (i.e., top 5) but certainly not someone that should be forgotten on draft day.

Yet, it appears that Faulk is "the guy in the 2nd round nobody really wants to draft." Is that a rational reaction to Faulk's waning health and lack of consistency? (he's missed at least 2 games every season since 2000) or a myopic overreaction to last year's missed time? (he's finished no worse than 11th in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons).

I can't tell you definitively whether Faulk will be healthy for the entire season and, if so, how much he has left in the tank. I AM confident that when he does play, he'll be a solid fantasy RB2 at worst. Whether you get 8, 12 or 16 games of said production remains to be seen.

So ultimately the question becomes, at what point in your draft is Faulk's value just too compelling to pass up? If he's available in the latter part of the 2nd round (meaning you probably rostered a true stud RB in the first round), I think he's an ideal selection. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he's coming off the board in the early part of the 2nd round, as the 13th RB selected. I currently project Faulk for 250 carries, and expect him to play at least 14 games this season. Under that assumption, I have a hard time projecting him for worse than 14th in the RB rankings; meaning Faulk is being drafted, on average, at just about the appropriate spot.

Positives

• Finished 9th in points per game last season and was highly productive in the final 8 weeks of the season



• Mike Martz has been quoted saying Faulk is in better shape and healthier at this point in the season than at any point in the last three years



• Faulk remains an elite scoring threat, he ranked 1st among all RBs last year in goal line conversion percentage (70%+) and his 10 TDs in 8 games projects to 20 TDs; the stuff of fantasy gold

Negatives

• Faulk has missed time for four straight seasons and admits to having trouble recovering from injuries as quickly as he used to



• Faulk's yards per rush (3.9) and yards per reception (6.4) were the lowest of his career; he doesn't have the explosiveness he once possessed



• The Rams offensive line could be in trouble without Kyle Turley and Dave Wohlabaugh

Final Thoughts

Faulk is one of those make or break players for 2004. Enough people will be too scared to draft him that he may fall into the late 2nd; and at that point the risk/reward is compelling. If Faulk can give owners 12-14 games at last year's level of production, he's worth a late 2nd round selection. Remember that he ranked 9th last year on a per game basis; despite career low rushing and receiving averages. If last year proved a harbinger of steeper decline, that 2nd round pick could completely negate the advantage those owners got by having an early first round pick. Personally, my strategy usually hinges on avoiding risk early and accepting high risk/high reward later in the draft. Under that scenario, Faulk doesn't have a home on my teams given his current average draft position. I would take at least 12 other RBs ahead of him, as well as Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Daunte Culpepper. Which means that any pick after 15th would start to make some sense; risks aside.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Unless you have been in a hole the last decade, you know Marshall Faulk - both as an NFL player and (since you are reading this) as a fantasy player. He was annually in the elite for fantasy running backs until Priest Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson came along. Even though he is 31 years old, he still carries that allure to the running back position that is Marshall Faulk. He simply still seems capable of putting up massive numbers, and doing damage through the air or on the ground. Last year's final 8 regular season games, where Faulk was the #6 back in points per game under most fantasy systems, showed Faulk could still hang with the big boys. For fantasy players who stuck with him through his early troubles and started him the last 8 games of the season, many received the shot in the arm through their fantasy playoffs that meant a championship.

It doesn't hurt that he plays on one of the most potent offenses in the league in St Louis and in one of the weaker defensive divisions in the NFC West - the "Wild Wild West" should produce some high scoring inter-divisional games. As long as Faulk is on the field, he has to be considered a top-level talent. But that question of him remaining on the field is the main reason he has dropped out of, or to the bottom of, many fantasy players' top-12 RB lists. Faulk has not completed all 16 games in a season since 1999. He missed five games in 2003 while recovering from knee surgery for a degenerative knee condition, and he was fairly ineffective for the three games prior to undergoing that surgery.

And there's the rub - degenerative knee condition. It is admirable that Marshall does not want to retire yet, and when he is on his game, he is a still as exciting an NFL or fantasy player as exists. But, he was allegedly contemplating retiring had the Rams reached the Super Bowl last year, and he will probably be thinking the same thing this year. As exciting as Faulk is, his skill and his numbers have eroded consistently since 2001. He has dropped from 5.3 YPC to 4.5 in 2002 to 3.9 in 2003. He has dropped from 9.2 YPR in 2001 to just 6.4 in 2003. Finally, he dropped from nearly 6 catches per game in 2001 to 4 in 2003.

Nevertheless, when he is on the field, he is the centerpiece of the offense. Look no further than that he received the vast majority of his rushing and receiving attempts on first down last year. That means it was Marshall Faulk as the first option. Even though he has been unable to complete a full season since 1999, Faulk has averaged 17 total TDs since the year 2000, and he had 21 total TDs the last two years while his skills have supposedly declined to the point where he should consider calling it quits. That works out to one TD per game for each game Faulk started in 2002 and 2003.

It is kind of funny to consider a back that is on the decline, is possibly a year away from retiring, and is clearly not the back he used to be with an "upside," but with the way Faulk has been dropping in drafts to mid- or even late second round, he has upside. He is one of only a few "home-run hit" running backs you can select outside of the first round. If he plays all 16 games, even if he splits time with rookie RB Stephen Jackson, he is the focus of the offense and will be as strong a RB2 for your lineup as you could hope for. If he does not make it the full 16 games is where you have to worry - which is why a selection of Faulk almost requires an early reach at rookie RB Stephen Jackson as his handcuff.

Remember the days when you said "I'll take an 80% Faulk over almost every other back" - well, those days are here. 80% fantasy production of what Faulk used to bring to the table is still a pretty darned good fantasy back for your squad. I would draft Faulk with no hesitation as my RB2, but I would be loathe to take him unless I were committed to grabbing Jackson to back him up. That said, consider this - Arlen Harris and Lamar Gordon were both adequate fill-ins who put up steady RB2 numbers while Faulk was absent last year. If Faulk goes down for a game or two, you should have full confidence the team will utilize Jackson the same way they utilized Faulk.

You obviously must downgrade Faulk in keeper and dynasty leagues, but you should upgrade Faulk in all point per reception leagues. I would plan on him missing some time if you draft him, but hope that he manages to play all 16 games. If he does start all 16 games, you probably landed the best RB2 in your league.

Positives

• Annual top-5 selection who is now commonly available in the early second round due to perceived inability to stay healthy



• Is still the focal point of the St Louis offense and could easily finish with over 1200 yards of total offense and over 10 TDs, even if he splits significant carries with Jackson or loses several games on the year due to injury



• Plays in a high powered offense against relatively easy defenses in the NFC West.

Negatives

• Age of 31 (and a much used 31 year old running back) has taken its toll on Faulk. A degenerative knee condition does not help



• Stephen Jackson in the wings to steal carries, and to encourage the coaching staff to keep Marshall on the bench for longer periods if he is hurt



• You are almost required to burn a second roster spot on Marshall by either handcuffing Jackson to him or spending an early pick on another RB2 since Marshall has missed nearly 4 games per year since 2000

Final Thoughts

Here's the primary thought on Marshall Faulk - can I afford to reach for Jackson or another RB2 candidate as his handcuff and, if it is Jackson instead of Faulk for a few games, am I confident starting him at my RB2 spot? As you watch the preseason unfold, keep an eye on Jackson, not Faulk. If Jackson appears capable if filling Faulk's void, take Faulk with confidence, and simply plan to reach earlier than anyone else at Jackson. It is unlikely Martz will cut back on using Faulk as much as Faulk wants to be used, so Jackson is unlikely to steal significant touches from Faulk while Faulk is able to start. Keep in mind that Faulk has been a good fantasy back, yet has not had over 260 carries any year since 1998. Faulk, if he is able to play, will be Faulk as long as he keeps catching the ball in space. If he catches 4 or 5 passes a game, he'll get his most of the time. The question mark is whether you are willing to pay the price that Jackson will command so that you have peace of mind to carry Faulk on your roster.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

The (GRID) Iron Giant:
"…"This is probably the first year I thought, 'Man, if the body isn't acting right, what do I do? Do I fight through it, or do I not play?'" Faulk said.

Faulk has rushed for 1,000 yards in seven of his 10 seasons in the NFL. He's earned seven Pro Bowl invitations, but he knows that a running back's skills can decline in a hurry. He realizes that at some point he'll have to deal with not being able to play at such a high level.

"It will be that, or if I can accept a lesser role if that becomes an issue," Faulk said. "There are a lot of things that factor in. That's just being honest. There are a lot of things that factor into that decision."

You can *not* draft a guy who's pedaling tripe like that during training camp. This is the time of eternal optimism. He should feel young again and promising to show his critics he's far from done. Instead, he's basically admitting those I-might-suddenly-retire-if'n-my-knee-hurts rumors are true. Yikes."

KKrew:
"Marshall Faulk. I'm a Patriots Season Ticket Holder. When Faulk went from the Colts to the Rams I breathed a sigh of relief as he represented the only weapon that I truly feared on the Colts (yeah, I know Manning, Edge and Harrison now represent a formidable set of weapons - that was then!). Anyway, Faulk is on the downside of his career. He still has FFL value but the #1 overall pick days are over."

Infinite Justice
"The thing I don't like about Faulk is that I do NOT want him on my team because his late 2nd / early 3rd round cost could destroy me if he busts which is quite possible. Then again, I do not want to see him slip too far because the team that gets him might just get a RB1 very cheap if they're lucky. Really hoping someone reaches for him early just on reputation or name recognition. If he is a monster, OK they got what they paid for. If not, shame on them for taking him so early."

guderian:
"People can complain about the time that he misses, but how many RBs can get you over 1 TD per game? A full offseason with Bulger getting the reps as the #1 QB should improve offensive continuity and help Faulk's production."

fightingillini:
"Marshall Faulk....the ultimate risk and reward pick of 2004. When healthy, no one is a better rushing/receiving threat....but his best days are clearly past him. He is one guy that you can assume will not play all 16 games, so my projections are based on that."

Marshall Faulk Projections