Jason Wood's Thoughts

You don't need me to tell you that Marvin Harrison is a stud; and that barring injury he'll be one of the top two or three fantasy receivers this year. As long as Peyton Manning is under center, Harrison will be among the league's best pass catchers; that much is certain.

What astounds me is that some people actually feel like Harrison had a disappointing season in 2003. On our Footballguys Message Board, I actually read a few weeks ago someone complain that "Marvin Harrison's reception totals fell 34% last year!" This was true to be sure, but he still ended the season with 94 receptions. Adjust for his one missed game and Harrison was in line for 100 receptions; in lock step with his annual production from 1999 to 2002. If anyone really counted on Harrison duplicating his 143 reception effort from two years ago, they were misguided from the start.

Whether Harrison catches 100 passes or 120 we can't say for sure, but we can say in good conscience that he's not lost a step simply because his overall production fell last year. He still scored double digit TDs, marking the 5th straight season he's accomplished that feat. And more importantly, Harrison averaged 13.5 yards per reception, right in line with his career average.

If you're in a conventional league, Harrison is a legitimate option in the early 2nd round provided you are happy with your 1st round RB. In leagues that reward points per reception, Harrison becomes a potential late 1st rounder and would be a value pick at any point in the 2nd.

Since you don't need me to tell you that Harrison is a fantasy goldmine one more time, let me leave you with the knowledge that in rostering Harrison in 2004, you'll have the added privilege of watching him move into rarefied air among the NFL's all-time greats.

• He needs 56 receptions to move into the top 10 all-time; if Harrison has another 100 catch season, he'll end the year in 6th place all-time



• He needs 785 yards to move into 13th all time; and has an outside shot at finishing the year 12th on the all time list



• He needs 2 touchdowns to move into 10th all time; and will move into 6th all time with 6 touchdowns

Positives

• Along with Randy Moss, Harrison has the highest "floor" among fantasy receivers…last year's 94 catches and 1,272 yards were a "down" year



• Peyton Manning and the entire Colts supporting cast (and coaching staff) return from a unit that has thrown for 4,200+ yards four seasons and counting



• Harrison has exceptional hands and is as disciplined a route runner as has every graced the NFL playing field

Negatives

• At 6'0, 175 pounds, Harrison isn't the most sturdy of receivers; and at 32 years old and having been hurt for a bit last year, we have to be mindful of his durability going forward



• Taking Harrison means passing up on an elite RB2



• Were something to happen to Peyton Manning, the Colts backup situation is tenuous at best

Final Thoughts

Marvin Harrison is one of the elite players at his position and will be selected at some point in the 2nd round in most drafts this year. As long as you're confident in your plan of action at the RB position, Harrison offers compelling value particularly in leagues that reward points per reception.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

One of the most consistent players in all of fantasy football in recent years has been Indianapolis WR Marvin Harrison. Since his breakout season 5 years ago, he has ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 4th in the year-end WR rankings. It does not get much better than that. In 2002, Harrison set the NFL record with 143 receptions in a season, besting the old mark by 20 receptions.

Over the past few seasons, the debate among fantasy owners has been who was better, Harrison or Randy Moss. With the exception of last year, Harrison has actually been more productive over the past 3 years and past 5 years.

3 years:
Harrison 670 total fantasy points, Moss 643 total fantasy points
Harrison 223.3 points per season, Moss 214.3 points per season
Harrison 14.3 PPG, Moss 13.4 PPG

5 years:
Harrison 1134 total fantasy points, Moss 1089 total fantasy points per season
Harrison 226.8 points per season, Moss 217.8 points per season
Harrison 14.4 PPG, Moss 13.6 PPG

The funny thing is that people are now so enamored with Moss after his phenomenal 2003 campaign that people are actually wondering if Harrison is done, reduced to a fraction of his former self after "bombing" in 2003. This makes no sense at all.

In 2000, Randy Moss led all WR in fantasy scoring and was the cat's meow. In 2001, his scoring dropped to 188 fantasy points--ranking him 5th on the season. In 2002, Moss again scored 188 points-and his detractors again said he was done, overrated, overhyped, etc. Of course, Moss responded with 267 fantasy points last year and is once again the star of the day and now a first round pick in almost every fantasy draft.

Harrison scored EXACTLY 188 points last year, the same as Moss scored IN TWO STRAIGHT YEARS (ranking as the #4 WR). And now Harrison is the subject of the whispers, rumors, and innuendo to him being on the decline. Harrison suffered from an ankle injury last season that kept him out of one game entirely and limited him in several others. Those that expected 143 receptions again were not thinking clearly and realistically.

As we enter 2004, there are no sure things in fantasy football, but Marvin Harrison is about as close as there is to a sure thing. Yes, Reggie Wayne emerged some last season, with essentially half of his production coming in three big games (25-378-4), but one of them was the week Harrison missed due to injury. Wayne may still put up some decent numbers, but the passing game goes through Harrison with Wayne the secondary option.

Positives

• Has AVERAGED 113 receptions, 1519 receiving yards, and 12 TD over the past 5 (FIVE) seasons. In that span, only 2 WR have had a season with 100-1500-10 (Moss and Holt last year)



• Plays on one of the most potent offenses in the league that has had very little trouble moving the ball or scoring lots of points



• Has very little associated risk for fantasy purposes. He's very unlikely to be a bust and you know what level of production you are getting as a return on investment

Negatives

• 2003 was his "worst" season in the past 5 years and "could" indicate the beginning of a decline from his peak years



• Seemed to be less productive after the emergence of Reggie Wayne as a legitimate WR2 and the reemergence of Edgerrin James as a solid featured RB



• At 32, a few football pundits have started to suggest that he may have lost half a step, his skills might be slipping, and overall he might not be the same WR he was a few years ago

Final Thoughts

Perhaps the single biggest complaint fantasy football owners can come up with about Harrison is that he's not a RB. Harrison will get passed over in countless fantasy drafts due to the fact that people may all but insist on getting a stud RB instead of a WR with their first or second picks.

I'll go out on a limb and say Harrison will never get 143 receptions in a single season again. In fact, it's entirely possible NO ONE will get 143 receptions in a single season again, so I think my assertion is pretty safe.

Will Harrison reclaim the throne as fantasy's #1 WR? Maybe, maybe not. He may not catch Moss in total points scored, but he'll be closer than the 79 point scoring differential from last year. Harrison is worth a late first round draft pick and should be off the draft board by pick the mid second round in most 12-team leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Repressed Dennis:
"I think injuries hurt Marvelous Marvin more last year than he would ever have let on. He's in a contract year, and Marv has a lot of pride. It looks like the Colts do have some more reliable weapons this year, but that can be looked at two ways - production gets split, but there's less attention paid to the superstar."

Colt Apologist:
"As good of a guy as Marvin is, he starts to get very unhappy if he isn't getting his minimum 10 looks a game. This has happened more than once in the past and even got to a point a couple of times where he started to talk about it to the Indy Star. Biggest disappointing thing for me was that at the time they were winning games. Manning knows that and wants to keep him happy (sometimes to a fault)."

TheFanatic:
"Isn't this the year that the Colts have to decide to keep Marvin or Edge? Isn't Marvin Peyton's favorite target? Am I the only one who thinks that Peyton will ensure that his favorite target stays a Colt over Edge? Am I the only one who thinks that Peyton will pad Marvin's stats to keep his favorite target in a Colts uniform?"

beef:
"He was hurt during the Jax game and was limited to 1 catch that week and missed the next week's game vs. NY. Had he been healthy for those games he could have posted his 5th straight 100+ catch season and a possibility that he would have posted his 5th straight 1400+ receiving yard season."

fightingillini:
"Harrison is a stud.....will consistently get his catches & yards......TDs does come in bunches, though. Has some more competition for the ball with Wayne, Stokley, Pollard, Dallas Clark, and James, but Manning has complete confidence in Harrison."

Marvin Harrison Projections