Jason Wood's Thoughts

The Seattle Seahawks are one of my choices for NFC supremacy (alongside the Eagles of course) this year. Last season the team put together a 10-6 campaign as Mike Holmgren gave up his GM duties and got back to what made him famous in the first place; coaching. Just about everything came together for the 'hawks last year offensively, as the team finished 5th overall and solidly in the top 10 in both rushing and passing. Matt Hasselbeck, in his first full season at the helm, secured a Pro Bowl nod and finished 4th and 3rd, respectively, in passing yards and touchdowns. Shaun Alexander, who topped 1,400 yards rushing and added 14 touchdowns, also received his first Pro Bowl honors. From a fantasy perspective, Hasselbeck finished 6th; putting him on solid footing as a top tier signal caller. Were it not for a poor defensive showing (28th against the pass, 19th overall) in the first year under DC Ray Rhodes, this is a team that could've gone far in the playoffs.

With that in mind, I see no reason why Matt Hasselbeck shouldn't be on the short list of elite fantasy QBs this year. Everything that put him on the map is again in place, and the few areas that needed improvement appear to be focal points of the coaching staff and players this preseason.

• Offensive Line - The offensive line returns all five starters from a year ago, lead by perennial All Pro Walter Jones and OLG Steve Hutchinson on the left side. Continuity is as important as talent on an offensive line and this unit has now played together for a considerable amount of time. One word of caution, the line is better run blocking than in pass protection; the team will be looking to improve on the 43 sacks allowed last season.



• Running Backs - Shaun Alexander has amassed 1,600 yards or more of total offense and at least 16 touchdowns in each of his three seasons as the Seahawks starter. What's frightening is that some Seahawks observers believe he's actually got more to give and lacks effort on every down. Either way, Alexander's presence in the backfield makes things infinitely easier for Hasselbeck on so many levels. One, opposing defenses have to pick their poison. If teams focus too much on Hasselbeck and the passing game, Alexander will kill them; and vice versa. Two, Alexander is a proven receiver (48 catches a season) and a key cog in Hasselbeck's arsenal.



• Wide Receivers - Few teams boast a young tandem like Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson. While Robinson is coming off a down year, Jackson established himself as one of the league's better receivers and was rewarded handsomely with a lucrative contract extension. Slot receiver Bobby Engram, who caught 52 passes last season, also returns. As impressive as the receiving corps was last season (188 receptions, 2,728 yards and 20 touchdowns!), it also lead the league in dropped passes. The dropped passes have been a focus in the early preseason and, should they be corrected, Hasselbeck can layer in another few dozen completions and several hundred yards passing, in my opinion.



• Coaching Staff - Mike Holmgren established himself as one of the great offensive minds by returning the Green Bay Packers to greatness and leading them to a Super Bowl title. However, until last year, Holmgren had failed to deliver the same kind of success in Seattle that he'd been known for in Green Bay. One of the big differences between 2003 and prior seasons was Holmgren's role in team management. He retained his coaching duties but relinquished his role as general manager; freeing him up to focus on what most consider his best asset, game planning. What's more, as the season wore on, Holmgren grew more confident in the passing game and began to open up the offense a bit more. History shows that Holmgren's teams are most successful when they use the run to set up the pass, so don't count out an increase in the pass/run ratio this season, regardless of whether the team's defense improves.

Positives

• The entire offense returns intact from a season where Hasselbeck finished 6th among fantasy QBs, 3rd in passing touchdowns and 4th in passing yards



• The quality of NFC West passing defenses appears questionable, it's hard to argue that any other NFC West defense improved this offseason



• The receiving corps, already one of the most productive in the league, has vowed to cure the collective problem of too many dropped passes

Negatives

• The receiving corps lead the league in dropped passes last season



• Talent notwithstanding, the Seahawks allowed 43 sacks last season (tied for 4th worst)



• An improved defense could theoretically limit the necessity of throwing the ball as frequently; although the team ranked middle of the road in passing attempts (14th) so it's not too much of a worry

Final Thoughts

Last year, Matt Hasselbeck was one of the better "sleeper" stories. After coming on at the tail end of 2002, many people, myself included, rolled the dice on Hasselbeck hoping for a breakthrough 2003 campaign; and boy did he deliver. Now, having returned the identical group that allowed him to finish 4th in passing yards and 3rd in passing TDs, there is every reason to think Hasselbeck is on the verge of fantasy greatness. If the Seahawks are as good as I expect them to be (my pick to play -and lose - to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game), it's going to be a fun ride having him as your fantasy QB. Assuming Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson remain serious about correcting their problem with dropping passes, there's every reason to think Hasselbeck could throw for 4,000 yards. And while Shaun Alexander is a threat to vulture quite a few touchdowns, remember that Mike Holmgren has always been a fan of passing in the red zone; so a handful of Alexander's scores will come via Matt Hasselbeck's arm. Consider Hasselbeck among the top five or six players at his position and draft accordingly..

Colin Dowling's Thoughts:

Matt Hasselbeck is yet another QB in the "Backup to Brett Favre" lineage to breakout on his own. I don't know what's in the water in Green Bay, but this list is ridiculous - Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, and now, Matt Hasselbeck. I'm sure it's only a matter of time until Craig Nall leads somebody to the Promised Land. Anyway, Hasselbeck really came into his own last season. Can he keep it up? In a word, "yes." More specifically, if Hasselbeck doesn't spend the next few seasons earning Pro-Bowl selections, I'll be shocked. Let's look at some of the broad issues that have resulted in Hasselbeck's greater successes.

1. The Seattle offense. Even with Shaun Alexander racking up touchdowns, Hasselbeck is still a threat to throw for 300 and 3 every single week. From time to time, he blows that out of the water entirely by throwing for 5 TDs or 400 yards. For some reason, Seattle is able to offer up a balanced offense regardless of opponent. That gives Hasselbeck a chance to win games - for the Seahawks and for you - every time he steps on the field.



2. The supporting cast. His receivers are as good as any trio in the league, and despite a case of the 'dropsies' in 2003, they still produce at a high level. The running game is stout and the offensive line is on par with the Great Wall of China when Walter Young is not holding out. So, in short, Hasselbeck remains upright, he has a runner to keep the LBs honest, and he has a group of more-than-able receivers to catch the ball.



3. The play calling. Holmgren and company are part of the fantastic new trend in the NFL that decries, "throw it early and often, from ahead or behind." Fantasy players have to LOVE an offense that lets the quarterback make things happen for four full quarters.

So, why should we expect more of the same this season? Simple: January 4th, 2004. He didn't throw a single touchdown, he had a season-ending interception, and he looked like a doofus declaring "We're gonna score!" at the beginning of overtime. However, Matt Hasselbeck went into Green Bay and almost 'out-Favred' Brett Favre himself. Hasselbeck was in control, and when asked to shoulder the load in a pressure situation, he did so admirably, firing the ball 45 times to anyone who was open. I like to crunch numbers as much as anyone, but sometimes, seeing is believing. That January day, Hasselbeck went from "starting quarterback" to "franchise quarterback." As such, he'll continue to get the opportunity to make things happen for a well-tuned offense that still hasn't reached its potential.

Now, let's look at some numbers…

Considering that this was Hasselbeck's first year as the team's unquestioned starter, I'd say he held up pretty well, finishing in the top-6 at his position in most leagues. Interestingly, in the first part of the season, he was an effective, efficient player, adding touchdown passes to his stat line and winning games. However, as we look a little further into the year, the Seahawks started throwing the ball downfield a lot more and guess what? Hasselbeck's completion % GOT BETTER once they opened things up. Are you kidding me? A guy is asked to throw it further down the field and throw it more often and as a result he completes a greater percentage? Fantastic.

• First 8 games (average): 31 attempts/game, 18.1 completions/game (58.5 %), 1.50 TDs/game, 0.875 INT/game
• Next 8 games (average): 33.1 attempts/game, 21 completions/game (63.4%), 1.75 TDs/game, 1 INT/game

Here's the best part…

• First 8 games: 221 yards per game
• Next 8 games: 258 yards per game

So, by opening the offense up a bit, Hasselbeck was able to throw for more yards, more TDs, and a greater completion percentage than when things were more conservative. Now, with a year as "the guy" under his belt and the experience acquired during 2003, I would expect that the Seahawks will keep things plenty open for 16 games, which leads to outrageous fantasy production for you.

Final Thoughts

Chances are Hasselbeck will one of the top 5 quarterbacks drafted, so if you want him, you'll likely have to spend a relatively early pick on him. However, barring injury, there is no reason to think he won't justify that draft position on a team with a solid line, a solid running game, a solid group of receivers, and quality playcalling.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Amishboy:
"Hasselbeck has everything in place for a repeat of last year's success. Every offensive weapon is returning. K. Robinson will be one year better and D. Jackson seems to be completely healthy. He finally showed the confidence Holmgren knew he had, and if the receivers could start the year with catching the ball in week 1 instead of 6 or 7 he could reach career highs in every statistical category."

Just Win Baby:
"For those interested in splits, check him out by first and second half last year:

first half: 145/248 (.585), 1777 yards (7.2 ypa), 12 TDs, 7 INTs; 23/91/1 rushing; 17.1 fppg
second half: 168/265 (.634), 2067 yards (7.8 ypa), 14 TDs, 8 INTs; 13/34/1 rushing; 19 fppg

Not a huge increase, but a positive trend nonetheless. In particular, check out the simultaneous increases in completion percentage and yards per attempt. Combined with the decrease in rushing attempts, this suggests that Hasselbeck really got comfortable in the offense in the second half."

FatRader:
"The "knock" on Hasselbeck for 2004 is that the Seattle D should be better. Better D = More Leads = More Rushing to Protect the lead = Less Overall Passing #s. Seattle scored 44 TDs last year (4th best) in route to a 10-6 record - with a better D they should be able to win more by scoring less. I don't see a huge drop off - just not much room for improvement."

TheDirtyWord:
"Even if Seattle's defense does improve in 2004, don't expect Holmgren to put the brakes on Seattle's passing attack. Seattle ranked 13th in the NFL in passing attempts in 2003 (not counting sacks), but if they attempted one less pass/game, they would have ranked 23rd. With the depth at the WR position the Seahawks have in addition to an emerging star at QB, I would fully expect Holmgren to put up as many passes if not more in 2004. When you also consider that Seahawk QBs were sacked 43 times, with the O-Line that they have...that number could be easily improved upon."

jurb26:
"Matt Hasselbeck has been quietly transforming himself into one of the best QBs in the NFL over the past 2 years. I don't see any reason as to why this season should be any different. Sea has got a fabulous O-line to protect him, a stud RB who knows how to get the job done, solid TEs with room to grow, and sick talent at WR."

Matt Hasselbeck Projections