Jason Wood's Thoughts

Michael Vick is a VERY simple player to analyze, in my opinion. If he's healthy for the majority of the season, I see almost no way Vick won't be among the top four or five fantasy QBs this year. With that in mind, Vick's injury history and aggressive style of play give many owners pause. So, either you're willing to spend a late 2nd, early 3rd round pick on Vick and roll the dice, under the auspice of "injuries are hard to predict" OR you let someone else draft Vick and hope that he either a) falls prey to injury or b) fails to develop as a passer thus limiting his potent fantasy potential.

My personal feelings on Vick are mixed. Two years ago, I was fortunate to roster him in several leagues while he was a bona fide sleeper. In fact, I recall drafting Vick as the 16th QB off the board in one of my long-standing local leagues, and someone turned to me with a smile on his face and said, "Aren't you worried that Vick can't hit the broadside of a barn?" Well, 329 fantasy points (QB2 for the season) and a league title later, Vick's talents were no longer a secret.

In 2003, Vick was universally considered one of the elite QB prospects; but a preseason injury robbed him (and the Falcons) of the first eleven games of the season. While Vick's injury was disappointing, what disappointed me more were a) that he took significantly longer to heal than most medical experts predicted and b) that he failed to show team leadership skills while on the sidelines. Yes, the season was lost and Vick had some type of rift with now deposed HC Dan Reeves, but he needed to take last season as an opportunity to cheer on his teammates, absorb the playbook, and stand side by side with the offensive coaches to better understand the process and his position. He did none of that.

Which brings us to 2004; you'll have to pay a hefty price for Vick despite his subpar 2003 season. On average, Vick is going in the early 3rd round (27th overall pick) according to Antsports. As I already said, Vick's natural athleticism and his unparalleled ability to make plays with his legs almost assure a top 5 fantasy finish provided he remains healthy. But, for those who want to dig a bit deeper, here are some talking points to consider:

1. New Coaching Staff - Anyone new is probably an improvement in Vick's eyes. Despite having a strong 2002 season under Dan Reeves, the quarterback and his former coach seemed to develop a substantial rift last year as Reeves, an old school coach, publicly called Vick's lengthy recovery time into question. One has to believe he'll be more focused and eager to play for the new coaching staff based on last season's issues. New head coach Jim Mora brought along Greg Knapp from the 49ers to serve as offensive coordinator. This should serve Vick well for several reasons. 1) Knapp had an excellent track record in San Francisco. 2) Knapp has experience coaching a mobile QB having worked with Jeff Garcia in San Francisco. 3) Greg Knapp appreciates a balanced offensive attack as his 49ers teams were always among the league's best rushing units.



2. Improved Personnel - Brian Finneran is a tough, hard working player but he's simply not suited to be a starting WR on a playoff caliber offensive unit. The lack of playmakers lining up alongside WR Peerless Price exposed Price last year; it was quite different than lining up with Eric Moulds. This year, that should be much different as the team added veteran Dez White and more importantly drafted Michael Jenkins. The combined might of that WR corps in addition to the ever improving All Pro TE Alge Crumpler gives Vick a talented cadre of receivers. And we haven't even mentioned Warrick Dunn yet, a talented receiver out of the backfield.



3. Improved Line Play - For such a mobile QB, Vick has been sacked way too many times in his young career. Part of the problem certainly lies with holding onto the ball too long; which he's vowed to improve upon by throwing the ball away when the defense isn't giving anything. But the line must improve as well. Although the personnel is relatively intact from a year ago, the Falcons added OL Coach Alex Gibbs. Gibbs is considered one of the best offensive line coaches in the league, having been the architect of the consistently stellar Denver Broncos line. He teaches linemen the art of the cut block, a legal yet controversial method of blocking defenders at the point of attack. If Gibbs can get the Falcons line to mirror the technique of the Broncos, Vick will have more time to throw AND there will be better running lanes for when he intends to tuck the ball and run.



4. Vick's Development as a Passer - The only way Vick fails to deliver this year is if he's injured again. One of the ways he and the coaching staff intend to avoid further injury is by making him a better passer. While it would be silly for Vick to stop running entirely, even he acknowledges that he MUST run less to prolong his career. And to do that, he'll have to improve on moderately raw fundamentals. He has the arm to make any throw, but is inexperienced and needs to show more consistent mechanics and footwork in the pocket. Luckily, Greg Knapp seems up to the task.

Positives

• The most physically talented quarterback in the league; has a cannon arm and unparalleled mobility. Vick is at his most dangerous when the intended play breaks down



• The Falcons offensive personnel has been improved; Vick will have plenty of weapons to throw to



• The new coaching staff seems an ideal fit to develop Vick's talents as a passer while ensuring that his running ability remains a major cog in the team's offensive scheme

Negatives

• A 52% career passer, Vick must improve his accuracy if he's going to become a two dimensional fantasy threat a la Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb



• Vick's propensity for breaking containment and running with the ball also exposes him to more severe punishment than most QBs; and he's shown a tendency to recover slowly from injury



• In leagues that don't reward the typical 2x to 2.5x for rushing yards versus passing yards, Vick won't justify his lofty draft position

Final Thoughts

A new coaching staff, an improved line blocking scheme, a deeper receiving corps, and a last place schedule all but ensures Michael Vick will be a fantasy force in 2004. That said, you're going to have to pay fair value for Vick's services this year, spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him. I would feel comfortable rostering Vick as long as McNabb, Manning and Culpepper were off the board. If Vick stays healthy and improves his passing numbers modestly from 2002 levels, he could easily finish atop the fantasy QB standings. Ideally, your draft isn't until late August/early September. If so, you'll be able to see Vick play in the preseason and show that he's 100% healthy. If your draft is earlier, it comes down to a gut check, how much risk are you willing to take with your franchise fantasy QB? Just remember a healthy Vick for even 12 weeks will be worth more than quite a few QBs who play all 16 games. Draft accordingly.

Clayton Gray's Thoughts

The 2003 season was over before it started for Michael Vick. With an ill-fated scramble in the preseason, Vick broke his right fibula and then missed the first 11 games of the season. This was a crushing blow to the Falcons (as they spiraled to a disappointing season) and to many fantasy teams (as they lost what was assuredly a very high draft pick). When Vick did finally return to the Atlanta starting lineup (Week 14 against Carolina), he reminded us all of his immense talent and ran all over the field for 141 dazzling yards. Even though he only threw for 179 yards that week, he certainly looked ready to close out the season strong and reward the faithful fantasy owners that had hung on to him all season long.

Then came the Week 15 debacle in Indianapolis where Vick tossed a paltry 47 passing yards and was bottled up for only 30 yards on the ground. That pitiful effort certainly destroyed the fantasy playoff chances of many teams across the country. He did bounce back with a pair of 2-TD efforts to wrap up the season, but for most squads that was too little and far too late.

Positives

• Vick has enormous natural talent. His scrambling ability is easily the tops in the NFL, and he could probably be an excellent RB if he wanted to. There is no doubt that he is the fastest QB in the league, and his arm strength is excellent. Physically, he has about everything you could want in a QB and can score from anywhere on the field



• Vick has a good supporting cast. The running game is in capable hands with the combination of Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, and there are good receivers at every position (Dunn at running back, Peerless Price at wide receiver, and Alge Crumpler at tight end). Veterans Dez White and Brian Finneran add good depth at WR, and Atlanta also added Michael Jenkins at the position. He is a big target (6'4 and 218 lbs) and should help Vick in the red zone



• With the new coaching staff, Atlanta will run a new offense that looks like it should be better suited to Vick's abilities. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is installing the same offense that allowed Jeff Garcia to put up very good numbers in San Francisco

Negatives

• The offense should be better suited to Vick, but it is still a new offense. Learning a new system can be troublesome to even experienced QBs. Vick is still a raw talent that hasn't mastered his footwork and throwing mechanics. He has a lot on his plate this year



• Durability will always be a concern with Vick. Even before last year's injury, he misses time on a yearly basis (dating back to his college days at Virginia Tech). If you take Vick as your starting QB, you'll need to grab a guy that is capable of being a part time fantasy starter



• He has a high ADP. According the Xpertleagues.com, Vick is being selected in the middle of the third round. If taken there, his owners are passing up quality WRs like Laveranues Coles, Joe Horn, and Derrick Mason. Vick will need to stay healthy for at least 14 games to make that a wise move



• The passing is still not there. In his career, Vick has exactly one 300-yard passing game. Last season, Vick had zero games of more than 200 yards passing and never completed more than 55% of his throws. Those are horrid numbers

Final Thoughts

Michael Vick is an absolute joy to watch on the field. He can make amazing moves with his feet and his deep bombs can be game-changers. With him upright, he is a definite asset most weeks and can strike fear into opposing defenses (and opposing fantasy owners). However, he misses far too many games to be a third round selection. If he sinks deep into the fourth, then his selection would be warranted, but at his present ADP he is simply too much risk.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

IDP4ME:
"First of all, I'm not a Vick hater. But I am tired of announcers worshipping this guy because he can make, admittedly, gorgeous plays with his legs. Big deal... all I've seen so far is potential and injury. Heck, I have more faith in Carr and Leftwich at this point. Anyway, my bet is he'll miss a few games and end the season with admirable but not fantastic stats."

WhoDat:
"I am fairly certain that Vick has been instructed to throw the ball away versus the continual tuck and run. Look at the demise of the Falcons last season after his injury. Ownership does not want to see that again. He'll throw it to the sidelines more often this coming year. His astronomical rushing statistics come back to earth."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"Michael Vick is the ultimate risk reward option in the entire draft. He could lead your team to the trophy, or he can ultimately send your team into a tailspin that leaves you thinking about next season way to early.

This wild card player hopefully has learned that his team needs him on the field. Playing Week 2 is a different story than playing in the playoffs. The guy has to protect his body and realize that every play isn't for the Super Bowl win. This sounds easy to do, but he's always went all out so it's not like he can just press a button and it's done. With maturation, he'll know when to run, when to slide, and when to get out of bounds and live for another play."

Uruk-Hai:
"All of superlatives - and risks - have been stated already. The thing I'd like to add is this: it really bothered me watching him (in an admittedly limited amount of time seeing his games) on the sidelines last year NOT standing with his coach wearing a headset & holding a clipboard. It seems like every time I saw him he was back by the bench joking around while his offense was on the field. He's still got a lot to learn about playing QB in the NFL and I don't think he used his time as wisely as he could have."

tommyGunZ:
"Fantasy football is a game of risk and reward. Vick's value this year includes his injury risk. Without the threat of injury, Vick is the #1 QB, and a late 1st, early 2nd rounder. With the injury risk built in, Vick has slipped to mid to late 3rd round in early drafts.

If you get Vick in the mid 3rd, and he stays healthy, you got a steal. If he goes down with an injury for a significant period of time, and you don't have decent backup options, you'll be hurting.

I personally believe Vick puts it all together this year and wins a ton of fantasy championships for those that take a chance on him in the 3rd round."

Michael Vick Projections