Jason Wood's Thoughts

At first look, the Oakland RB situation seems like a mess best left avoided. The team has no proven commodity but has a stable of backs who all offer their own strengths and weaknesses:

• Tyrone Wheatley - On the wrong side of 30, but an established Raider with the kind of size and running style that new HC Norv Turner usually looks for. He's not a great receiver nor has he ever shouldered a massive workload but has been effective as part of a committee at different points in his career.



• Justin Fargas - High draft pick last year based more on his Combine results than what he accomplished on the field at USC and Michigan. The son of "Huggy Bear," Fargas has sprinter speed and some natural ability but suffered through a series of injuries in college, never established himself as a collegiate lead back, isn't a great receiver and remains unproven between the tackles.



• Amos Zereoue - Once thought to be the heir apparent to Jerome Bettis, Zereoue's inability to stay healthy or outperform Bettis prompted the Steelers to send him packing. When healthy, Zereoue can be effective particularly as a receiver/3rd down back.



• Troy Hambrick - The Cowboys released Hambrick after a disappointing year as the feature back under Bill Parcells. Hambrick had difficulty scoring in the red zone (despite getting 51 chances) and didn't have the work ethic necessary to impress Parcells. He's young and a powerful between-the-tackles runner however who could be a cheap fit for Turner's offensive style on 1st and 2nd down.



• Zack Crockett - A straight line veteran runner with little maneuverability; but a bona fide TD vulture and major goal line presence.

So with five backs all competing for touches, and no franchise runner in the mix, why should this be a topic of conversation for fantasy owners? Because, Norv Turner does not plan on using a running back-by-committee system. Regardless of what your or I may think about the merits of a committee approach given the talent at hand, Turner is generally opposed to the idea.

"We're looking to get an every-down back,'' Turner said."And after four or five days, I think we'll end up with somebody who's carrying the ball most of the time, probably two, maybe three guys who fit into the mix, and use their strengths.''

Knowing that Turner wants to go with one guy to carry the load, and seeing who's gotten the majority of the reps subsequent to that comment in training camp, one has to conclude that Tyrone Wheatley is undervalued at his current draft position.

Positives

• Norv Turner is a proven offensive coach who favors between-the-tackles rushing attacks to set up play action plays downfield



• Wheatley has gotten the majority of work with the first team since Turner made the statement that he was going to pick one guy and go with him



• The Raiders offensive line appears to be a strength with the additions of Robert Gallery and Jake Grove to go along with the returning veterans

Negatives

• Wheatley has never been the full time feature back, having gone over 1,000 yards once in his career



• He's not a good receiver; and would probably sit in obvious passing downs



• At 32 years old and having never toted the rock 300+ times in a season, will Turner really use him as much as some project?

Final Thoughts

I don't think Wheatley is positioned to have a 1,200+ yard, 10+ TD season regardless of his workload, but I do think he should easily outperform his current ADP of 39th. Last year, Wheatley finished 35th as a part time player (658 yards and 4 TDs), so how can he not be in line for a top 30 type season if Turner uses him the majority of the time?

If you can roster Wheatley as your 4th or 5th RB; you will find yourself with someone who could be primed for some huge spot starts against opponents with weak rushing defenses. At best, Wheatley recaptures the form he showed in 1999-2000 when he combined for 2,334 yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

New Oakland Raiders head coach Norv Turner is known as a ball control coach, who "makes" running backs. The former Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator certainly did a good job with Ricky Williams, even if the team was running him into the ground the last two years with an overload of carries. That is the exact opposite of what Oakland fans have expected from their running game the last few years - the classic Oakland rushing attack has been a mix of Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatley, with Zack Crockett being a vulture for goal line opportunities. Turner may change all that. He seems to be looking for a starting feature back for the team after the departure of free agent and last year's starter Charlie Garner to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There are now a host of running backs on the team battling for the starter's role - second year player Justin Fargas remains, as does bruising goal line specialist Zack Crockett. Turner then raided other team's discard pile and emerged with former Steeler Amos Zereoue, who is not the power running back that Turner likes, but has good hands and shiftiness in the open field, former Cowboy Troy Hambrick, who is a power running back, but quickly entered and never emerged from Bill Parcells' dog house because of a lack of motivation, and former Patriot J.R. Redmond, who Turner has said will likely be converted to a pass catching fullback.

However, the smart money is on 32-year old Tyrone Wheatley to emerge as the team's starter and possible feature back. That thought has been bolstered by training camp reports that Wheatley has put the other backs to shame and has been steadily running with the first team offense. He had an impressive preseason outing against the San Francisco 49ers where he averaged over 6 yards per carry for his 5 carries and displayed a willingness and ability to bowl over defenders - exactly as Turner asked him to do before the game. Simply put, as of this writing, Wheatley is the team's best running back, he fits Norv Turner's classic running back profile, and he is doing everything the coaches have asked of him. The other backs are either specialists (such as Fargas working mostly on special teams, Zereoue developing the 3rd down back/change of pace role, and Crockett having a short-yardage role) or are simply not as good (read: Hambrick).

Wheatley being 32 years old is a concern, as its the fact that he has never carried the ball over 250 times in a season (so we are unsure if he can handle a 300-carry season), but he is currently cementing his spot as the front runner to be the Raiders' starting back. I do not project Wheatley to be an explosive back who puts up massive FF numbers, but even if he only gets all the first and second down carries for the team, he should reach or exceed his career high in carries. Any back that gets 250 carries or more can have fantasy worth. Then, consider this: last year, the Raiders averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team and Wheatley averaged 4.3 carries individually. They ran the ball 423 times, with 375 of those carries going to the running backs.

Now they have Norv Turner, who loves to run the ball, and they drafted offensive tackle Robert Gallery as the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft. You have a team that could do some damage on the ground - especially when playing Kansas City and San Diego twice a year. Wheatley may not be a world beater, but he is currently the best the Raiders' have, and any feature back on the Raiders' offense, with Turner as coach, has to be taken seriously in fantasy circles. Also consider that Turner has a habit of making feature backs - his last five backs were Ricky Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Stephen Davis, Terry Allen and Emmitt Smith. Just imagine if Turner is able to milk 75% of what he got from those five backs out of Wheatley, or whoever starts for the Raiders.

Undoubtedly, Wheatley as starter would give way occasionally to someone else for some carries. Wheatley CAN catch the ball, but Zereoue's and Fargas' speed seems more suited for third and long. Also, Zach Crockett has been a goal line vulture for several years, and he is a bowling ball when he smells the end zone. The lack of catches and the TD-vulture of Crockett might erode some of - or maybe even a good deal of - Wheatley's potential fantasy value. That depends on how TD-heavy your league is or whether you reward running backs with reception points.

With Norv Turner at the helm, my prediction is that the team increases its rushes to 450 times or more, with nearly 400 carries going to the running backs. I figure a feature back who faces the "specialist" RBs on the team as competition, and who might only see 1st and 2nd down carries, will gather between 60 to 65 percent of those carries. That would put Wheatley right at roughly the 250 carry barrier that he has never breached. The remaining running back carries would be divided between Crockett (who averages in the 40 carry range per year), Zereoue, Fargas, Hambrick (if he remains with the team), and Redmond.

The thing about Wheatley, though, is that he is a guy who gets work each week, and gets "his" numbers each week - even if those numbers have been low numbers in recent years. I expect Wheatley to get enough touches each week to get him to between 60 and 85 yard, and the possibility of an occasional close-in touchdown. Under standard performance fantasy scoring, you should be looking at anywhere from 6 to 15 points each and every week from Wheatley. Pretty good for a running back whose average draft position in 12-team leagues, as of this writing, is 8.08, and who is the 38th running back selected.

We are talking a blue chip value pick here. He will probably out score, both on a weekly basis and with his yearly totals, most of the backs drafted ahead of him as an RB3. That includes backs such as T.J. Duckett, Eddie George, Stephen Jackson, DeShaun Foster, Julius Jones, Correll Buckhalter, and William Green. While it is obvious that the "upside" some of those players bring is the attractive part to drafting them, it is also clear that Wheatley has more opportunity than almost all of them to be a weekly contributing member of your fantasy team - especially if you like to wait on your RB3 so you can draft WRs and QBs in rounds 3 through 7, or if you have a flex spot on your team that allows running backs.

If I were well settled with my first two or three running backs, I might draft other backs with more potential to "carry" my team. But, if I were a bit unsettled at running back, or if I had selected a risky back on my squad as a starter, or if I simply wanted a running back who starts and can give me weekly production as depth for my squad, a spot starter, or for an alternative for my flex spot, it is hard to fault a late 8th round selection of Tyrone Wheatley. Especially if you have a large roster and can handcuff one of the guys who might steal his job, he makes a low-risk, high-reward safety net for your running back crew. By the way, the Vegas money here is on Justin Fargas to be the only threat to stealing Wheatley's starting gig .

Finally, Wheatley acquires the greatest value to you if you are able to start him only against the Raiders' lesser run defense opponents. In other words, he is best used as a spot starter when you have no week-in/week-out RB2 ahead of him, or if you are mired in a RB2BC, or if you use "best-starter," or if you have a flex RB spot. The variety of uses for Tyrone Wheatley - or for whoever emerges as the Raider's feature back if it is somehow not Wheatley - make for a great late round, value pick for your team. This is a buy low redraft prospect that is likely to have more use to your squad than the other options at the position that are available when Wheatley is most commonly selected. In short, this is a "buy low and hold" stock.

Positives

• Though he is 32, he has not been used much, having never carried more than 250 times in a season - less wear and tear on that 32-year old body



• Norv Turner - a ball-control, run-oriented head coach; appears to like Wheatley as the front-runner to be his starter and feature back; and Turner seems to make good feature backs



• Almost criminal value for where he is being typically drafted - especially if he emerges as a three down back for Turner

Negatives

• Will not provide heavy dual threat numbers from catching the ball, though he is a capable receiver



• Potentially has a touchdown vulture on the team in Zack Crockett



• If the team starts to lose games, will it turn to Fargas as its youth later in the year?

Negatives

For fantasy purposes, the best bet to find a decent running back in Oakland is in Wheatley. If he loses the feature job, or doesn't get it done, the most likely situation is a close to 50-50 split RBBC between Wheatley and another back - likely either Fargas or Zereoue - which would mean that no Raider's running back would have much fantasy value. I would feel comfortable taking Wheatley where his current ADP is as my RB3 or RB4 - especially if I can employ a flex running back spot. I don't expect him to make any one on my team expendable, or to save my season if a starter goes down, but he could help weather a few weeks of injuries to a starting back and, as mentioned, he is likely to give consistent weekly production - which is something quite valuable in flex leagues. Finally, his value goes up tremendously in bigger leagues of 14 or more teams, and his value drops tremendously in keeper and dynasty leagues as the team is highly likely to look for a feature back in next year's draft or in the free agency market.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"I really wish Norvell would just come out and say that Tyrone is the starter. But, we'll continue to operate with limited information and continue to polish our crystal balls."

redman:
"My predictions are as follows based upon what I've heard on local radio here in LA - which still (pathetically) covers the Raiders like they're a home team. Wheatley's the starter and primary ball carrier. Zereoue is the likely primary backup and reliever of Wheatley if the season started today given how impressive he's looked in training camp thus far. Fargas is the third option."

DuffMan:
"What I'm wondering is even if Wheatley is featured, in point per reception leagues will Zereoue be a viable fantasy reserve? In other words, will he be used enough to make him more valuable than guys like Richie Anderson and (in the past) Larry Centers, who can rack up lots of catches?"

Tyrone Wheatley Projections