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Spotlight - QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts


Jason Wood's Thoughts

Some Player Spotlights are harder to write than others; but Peyton Manning's is not a challenge. What can I say about Manning that you don't already know? He's off to a Hall of Fame start, having thrown at least 4,100 yards and 26 touchdowns each of the last five seasons, gone to four straight Pro Bowls and won the league MVP award last year. Oh yeah, and he's not a bad fantasy player; finishing 4th, 4th, 7th, 4th and 2nd over the last half decade.

You know exactly what you're getting with Peyton Manning; the league's best pocket passer in command of a prolific offensive attack. Manning won't help in the rushing department, which is the main reason why he's yet to overtake Daunte Culpepper for top fantasy honors, but he's so consistent that it's tough to make a case for not drafting him. And in leagues that reward bonus points for 300+ yard passing games, Manning is arguably the best QB in the land.

2004 should be another year of fantasy excellence. His leading receivers are all back, as are his dynamic TE tandem. Edgerrin James appears at full health and the offensive line should again be a strength. What's not to like about Manning?

Positives

  • Five straight seasons of 4,100+ yards and 26+ touchdowns; and he continues to get better (67% completion last year, +19 TD-to-INT ratio)


  • The offensive line is one of the league's best


  • Manning has total command of OC Tom Moore's offense, and returns the same stable of receiving weapons that have contributed to his 2nd place finish a year ago


Negatives

  • If Marvin Harrison were to succumb to a major injury, Manning would be hard pressed to meet expectations


  • His lack of mobility limits his chances to finish atop the fantasy rankings


  • If Edgerrin James is really back to 100%; the team may shift slightly more in favor of the running game; albeit not enough to hurt Manning's overall value


Final Thoughts

Manning is the gold standard of pocket quarterbacks; and has all the pieces to put together his sixth straight 4,000 yard season; which means fantasy success for the owner who rosters him. One could justify Manning as a 2nd rounder in 12-team leagues; and were he to fall into the 3rd or 4th round, he's an absolute steal. Draft accordingly.


Chase Stuart's Thoughts:

Peyton Manning remains one of the most consistent and productive QBs in fantasy football. Using Footballguys.com scoring, he finished as the second best QB last year, fourth in 2002, and third the three prior seasons. Five straight years in the top five is very impressive, and nothing in the cards points to that streak ending in 2004. He's the best pocket passer in the league today, and he's a big time stat compiler.

Consider that each of the last five seasons:

  • Manning has thrown for over 4,000 yards


  • Manning has thrown for over 25 TDs


  • His completion percentage has been over 62%


  • His yards per attempt has been greater than 7.0


  • He has thrown more TDs than INTs


  • He has played in sixteen games


  • He has thrown 500 passes.


It's not difficult to figure out why Manning is such a fantasy stud. He throws a ton of passes, is never hurt, and is an excellent real life QB. With Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Marcus Pollard, Dallas Clark and Edgerrin James at his side, there's no reason to expect Manning to not reach all of those milestones again in 2004. His average season the last five years looks like this:

360 completions, 561 attempts, 64.17%; 4,229 yards, 7.53 YPA, 28 TDs

Lastly, Manning has finished in the top six in the league in all of the following categories, for all six years of his career:

  • Pass Attempts


  • Completions


  • Passing Yards


  • Passing Touchdowns


Positives

  • Plays in one of the best offenses in the league, with a ton of talent at the skill positions


  • Has perhaps the best pure receiver in the game, Marvin Harrison. Manning to Harrison will once again be a hit in 2004


  • No one prepares for a game like Manning, who knows every way to beat a defense. The older he gets, the more familiar he becomes with opposing defenses. Coming off his first MVP season, Manning could easily be primed for his best year yet


  • The Colts D isn't very impressive, so look for a decent number of shootouts this year


  • Manning is as durable as they come


Negatives

  • Manning doesn't run the ball very often, so he's not going to be Daunte Culpepper. Unless he throws for an insane number of touchdowns, it's going to be hard for him to finish the year number one if both Daunte Culpepper and Mike Vick play to their potential. Manning's the safe pick, but not necessarily the guy with the most upside.


Final Thoughts

Manning generally goes a bit later in drafts than Culpepper, but for good reason. As excellent as Manning is, fantasy football does not truly mirror reality. Daunte Culpepper is the best QB in most scoring systems, so don't take Manning as the first QB drafted in your league. However, if you don't like the low end RBs and feel most of the WRs are the same, I have no problem with spending a third round pick on Manning. In many non-shark leagues, Manning will probably go in the early second or late first round. While the advice is almost always to avoid a QB that early, Manning is probably the safest pick in the entire NFL.


Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

djcolts:
"The good:

1. A healthy Dallas Clark and Stokley
2. Edge is looking better than last year
3. D still looks shaky - may mean more passing

The bad:
1. Edge looking better may also mean fewer passing TDs and more running ones
2. Tougher schedule this year than last year
3. I seriously am worried about the opener against the Pats - I hope if they do lose big that week that it doesn't affect the rest of the season"

Iwannbeacowboybaby!:
"What Peyton Manning brings to your fantasy football team is a player that puts up consistent fantasy numbers and every few weeks he puts up a big number as well. Most likely, Peyton Manning won't finish the season as QB1 in terms of fantasy numbers, but he will finish in the top 5, and most likely top 3. To know that going into a season, that is huge."

hydroxybear:
"You know you'll have to burn a high draft pick to secure Manning, but you're also a virtual lock to receive 16 games of quality QB play."

jpapadub:
"The D has NOT improved so when the Colts play .500 teams or better they will be airing the ball out."


Peyton Manning Projections

Source
PassYds
TDs
INTs
RushYds
TDs
FntPts
Jason Wood
4125
30
15
40
1
321
Chase Stuart
4440
30
14
70
1
341
Message Board Consensus
4249
28
14
54
0
316
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