Spotlight - QB Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
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Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Jason Wood's Thoughts
Some Player Spotlights are harder to write than others; but Peyton Manning's
is not a challenge. What can I say about Manning that you don't already know?
He's off to a Hall of Fame start, having thrown at least 4,100 yards and 26
touchdowns each of the last five seasons, gone to four straight Pro Bowls and
won the league MVP award last year. Oh yeah, and he's not a bad fantasy player;
finishing 4th, 4th, 7th, 4th and 2nd over the last half decade.
You know exactly what you're getting with Peyton Manning; the league's best
pocket passer in command of a prolific offensive attack. Manning won't help
in the rushing department, which is the main reason why he's yet to overtake
Daunte Culpepper for top fantasy honors, but he's so consistent that it's tough
to make a case for not drafting him. And in leagues that reward bonus points
for 300+ yard passing games, Manning is arguably the best QB in the land.
2004 should be another year of fantasy excellence. His leading receivers are
all back, as are his dynamic TE tandem. Edgerrin James appears at full health
and the offensive line should again be a strength. What's not to like about
Manning?
Positives
- Five straight seasons of 4,100+ yards and 26+ touchdowns; and he continues
to get better (67% completion last year, +19 TD-to-INT ratio)
- The offensive line is one of the league's best
- Manning has total command of OC Tom Moore's offense, and returns the same
stable of receiving weapons that have contributed to his 2nd place finish
a year ago
Negatives
- If Marvin Harrison were to succumb to a major injury, Manning would be hard
pressed to meet expectations
- His lack of mobility limits his chances to finish atop the fantasy rankings
- If Edgerrin James is really back to 100%; the team may shift slightly more
in favor of the running game; albeit not enough to hurt Manning's overall
value
Final Thoughts
Manning is the gold standard of pocket quarterbacks; and has all the pieces
to put together his sixth straight 4,000 yard season; which means fantasy success
for the owner who rosters him. One could justify Manning as a 2nd rounder in
12-team leagues; and were he to fall into the 3rd or 4th round, he's an absolute
steal. Draft accordingly.
Chase Stuart's Thoughts:
Peyton Manning remains one of the most consistent and productive QBs in fantasy
football. Using Footballguys.com scoring, he finished as the second best QB
last year, fourth in 2002, and third the three prior seasons. Five straight
years in the top five is very impressive, and nothing in the cards points to
that streak ending in 2004. He's the best pocket passer in the league today,
and he's a big time stat compiler.
Consider that each of the last five seasons:
- Manning has thrown for over 4,000 yards
- Manning has thrown for over 25 TDs
- His completion percentage has been over 62%
- His yards per attempt has been greater than 7.0
- He has thrown more TDs than INTs
- He has played in sixteen games
- He has thrown 500 passes.
It's not difficult to figure out why Manning is such a fantasy stud. He throws
a ton of passes, is never hurt, and is an excellent real life QB. With Marvin
Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Marcus Pollard, Dallas Clark and Edgerrin James at his
side, there's no reason to expect Manning to not reach all of those milestones
again in 2004. His average season the last five years looks like this:
360 completions, 561 attempts, 64.17%; 4,229 yards,
7.53 YPA, 28 TDs
Lastly, Manning has finished in the top six in the league in all of the following
categories, for all six years of his career:
- Pass Attempts
- Completions
- Passing Yards
- Passing Touchdowns
Positives
- Plays in one of the best offenses in the league, with a ton of talent at
the skill positions
- Has perhaps the best pure receiver in the game, Marvin Harrison. Manning
to Harrison will once again be a hit in 2004
- No one prepares for a game like Manning, who knows every way to beat a
defense. The older he gets, the more familiar he becomes with opposing defenses.
Coming off his first MVP season, Manning could easily be primed for his best
year yet
- The Colts D isn't very impressive, so look for a decent number of shootouts
this year
- Manning is as durable as they come
Negatives
- Manning doesn't run the ball very often, so he's not going to be Daunte
Culpepper. Unless he throws for an insane number of touchdowns, it's going
to be hard for him to finish the year number one if both Daunte Culpepper
and Mike Vick play to their potential. Manning's the safe pick, but not necessarily
the guy with the most upside.
Final Thoughts
Manning generally goes a bit later in drafts than Culpepper, but for good reason.
As excellent as Manning is, fantasy football does not truly mirror reality.
Daunte Culpepper is the best QB in most scoring systems, so don't take Manning
as the first QB drafted in your league. However, if you don't like the low end
RBs and feel most of the WRs are the same, I have no problem with spending a
third round pick on Manning. In many non-shark leagues, Manning will probably
go in the early second or late first round. While the advice is almost always
to avoid a QB that early, Manning is probably the safest pick in the entire
NFL.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here.
djcolts:
"The good:
1. A healthy Dallas Clark and Stokley
2. Edge is looking better than last year
3. D still looks shaky - may mean more passing
The bad:
1. Edge looking better may also mean fewer passing TDs and more running ones
2. Tougher schedule this year than last year
3. I seriously am worried about the opener against the Pats - I hope if they
do lose big that week that it doesn't affect the rest of the season"
Iwannbeacowboybaby!:
"What Peyton Manning brings to your fantasy football team is a player
that puts up consistent fantasy numbers and every few weeks he puts up a big
number as well. Most likely, Peyton Manning won't finish the season as QB1 in
terms of fantasy numbers, but he will finish in the top 5, and most likely top
3. To know that going into a season, that is huge."
hydroxybear:
"You know you'll have to burn a high draft pick to secure Manning, but
you're also a virtual lock to receive 16 games of quality QB play."
jpapadub:
"The D has NOT improved so when the Colts play .500 teams or better
they will be airing the ball out."
Peyton Manning Projections
Source |
PassYds
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TDs
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INTs
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RushYds
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TDs
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FntPts
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Jason Wood |
4125
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30
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15
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40
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1
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321
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Chase Stuart |
4440
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30
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14
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70
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1
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341
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Message Board Consensus |
4249
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28
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14
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54
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0
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316
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