Jason Wood's Thoughts

Which Plaxico Burress are we going to see this year? The uber-talented, "do it all" receiver who had 78 receptions for 1,325 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2002 on his way to an 8th place fantasy finish OR the 2003 malcontent who netted just 60 receptions for 860 yards and 4 touchdowns leading to a disappointing 28th place finish?

I'm guessing we'll see more of the former and less of the latter for the following reasons:

1. He's talented - Talent does not equal productivity however there's no denying that Burress almost has to try to be less than impressive. If you watched a Steelers game last year, Burress was nowhere to be found on most plays yet somehow he managed to end the year with 60 receptions and a 28th place fantasy finish. Burress was the explosive "can't miss" receiver out of Michigan State before Charlie Rogers' name had been mentioned in college recruiting periodicals. Few receivers have the combination of size (6'5", 226 lbs.) and speed that Burress brings to the table.



2. He's motivated - In an ideal world, NFL players would be motivated on every play, driven by the sheer will to win and the love of the game. But we don't live in a fairy tale, in this reality the almighty dollar is the biggest motivator around. Burress is in the final year of his rookie contract, and knows that a strong season means lucrative dollars from the Steelers or (more likely) some other team. History has shown that contract years motivate players, and Burress has a lot to prove to prospective suitors.



3. He's saying the right things - Maybe others think I'm reading too much into Burress' words, but I can't ignore his talents. You don't have a top 10 fantasy finish at his age and then forget how to play the game. As a result, I was heartened to hear him speak candidly about the need to show focus and maturity this year.

   "This is my profession," Burress said. "If I don't know what it takes to come into a season and do the things I want to do, you really are not being truthful to yourself or being honest with yourself."

Positives

• Finished 8th among fantasy receivers two years ago, and still possesses the physical abilities which allowed him to have that type of season



• Is motivated by his contract situation; a good showing will result in lucrative offers from any number of NFL teams



• The Steelers line should be better this year, allowing Tommy Maddox more time in the pocket to locate Burress deep

Negatives

• Burress didn't train with the Steelers during the offseason and mini camps; yet cited a need for improved timing with Maddox versus a year ago



• He's prone to lapses in concentration particularly when the Steelers are struggling or he doesn't get enough passes thrown his way early in games



• Hines Ward is, rightfully, the Steelers go-to receiver and Burress must regain the confidence of Maddox and HC Bill Cowher

Final Thoughts

Some people will simply steer clear of Burress this year after his debacle in 2003. Yet, I'm not sure that's a prudent decision. He's playing for a new contract, his first big deal (he's still playing on his rookie terms) and reported to camp in excellent shape despite fears to the contrary (born out of his non-participation in mini camps). The offense should be more productive overall with the additions of Duce Staley and a healthy offensive line; and that means Tommy Maddox will have more time to look downfield to Burress. And while some pundits may claim otherwise, Burress is in no danger of losing his job to Randel-El; who's suited for the 3rd WR/Slot position and little more. I wouldn't hesitate to roster Burress as my WR3; and believe he could end up a strong WR2 if he's as focused as I believe him to be. Draft accordingly.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Plaxico Burress is blessed with terrific athleticism for a big receiver. He is fast enough to be a legitimate deep threat; strong enough to easily defeat the jam at the line of scrimmage, and he can make the acrobatic catch down the field. Even with his decreased production in 2003, opposing defenses still respected him as a big-play threat, as evidenced by the fact that he saw more double-teams than the more productive Hines Ward.

If Burress' physical talent is indisputable, his attitude and work ethic are not. While the Steelers were installing a new offense, Burress skipped all the Steelers' offseason workouts this year in protest of the team's refusal to extend his contract.

Burress showed off his big-play ability in 2002 when he averaged 17 yards per catch, amassing 1325 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on the season. He took a big step backwards last year, however, catching 60 passes for 860 yards and 4 touchdowns - a roughly 35% decrease in production.

With all of his big-play potential, however, Burress is not a nifty runner after the catch. He rarely catches a short pass and turns it into a big gain; rather, his big plays are generally long passes caught downfield. And the Steelers have not featured him extensively in the red zone, favoring Hines Ward instead because he runs crisper patterns and can get open in short space.

Also, even though Burress has soft hands and can make the spectacular catch, he will sometimes lose his concentration and drop the easy ball.

Positives

• Fantastic athlete with speed, jumping ability, and hands



• Is a legitimate deep threat who excels against man-to-man coverage



• The addition of OT Max Starks and the return of a healthy OT Marvel Smith should allow the Steelers time to take more shots down the field this year, which plays to Burress' strength

Negatives

• Inconsistent WR who may have a questionable attitude



• Coming off a disappointing year in which he averaged fewer than four catches per game



• Concentration lapses lead to too many drops (he caught only 44% of the passes intended for him last year)

Final Thoughts

I expect Burress to bounce back this year and come a lot closer to a 1,000-yard season than he did last year. One of his problems in 2003 was that the Steelers' offensive line played so poorly that Maddox rarely had time to look downfield. Downfield passes are Burress' specialty, so that hurt him more than it hurt Hines Ward. With the addition of third-round pick Max Stark, and the return of a healthy Marvel Smith (allowing Alan Faneca to move back to OG), the Steelers should have a pair of offensive tackles who will elevate the play of the entire OL this year. If the Steelers can get a better push in their running game as well, allowing them to avoid so many third-and-long situations, which would also help Burress' game quite a bit. Burress is at his best against man-to-man coverage, but isn't as adept at getting open against the two-deep zone many teams play in obvious passing situations.

Burress' current average draft position (mid-sixth round, 24th WR taken) is about right. He's not a tremendous value pick there, but he's certainly not a reach, either. He has more upside potential than the WRs being taken after him, so don't hesitate to grab Burress if it's the middle of the sixth round and WR is a position of need.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Tick:
"Look at his last two seasons for his ceiling (78/1325/7) and floor (60/860/4). One thing that consistently surprises me about him is his relatively low number of TDs. There's no real reason for him not to have 10 TDs in a season, so he's got some room to improve there."

KKrew:
"Going into last year's FFL draft season the consensus had Plaxico rated the #5 WR (according to Myfantasyleague.com)! After a miserable 2003 season and some offseason squawking he's now being drafted as WR #24. That's pretty low.

Now, I fancy myself a contrarian. However, when I look at the Steelers and Burress I happen to agree with the flock."

Evilgrin72:
"A number of you have hit the nail right on the head. Burress' production will mirror the quality of the O-line. Here's a fact (from a die-hard Steelers fan) - when the protection breaks down, Maddox goes into turtle mode. HE drops on the ball, and the play is over. With all the injuries Pittsburgh had on the line last year, this happened WAY more than it should. The intermediate routes remained somewhat unaffected, as they managed to pass block long enough to give Ward a few seconds to break his 9-10 yard outs. However, the downfield game was all but ruined. Maddox rarely had the time to let these plays develop and his lack of mobility prevented him from stepping up and buying additional time for the deep WR. Thus, Burress' numbers took a huge hit. All seems right (at least at this point) with the line, and the inevitable (I say this because last year, the Steelers' ground game was the worst in team history) improvement in the run game should take more heat off the receivers. Thus, he's bound to improve somewhat right there."

pghrob:
"With a re-emphasis to run first to set up the pass, Plaxico Burress will be able to get down field and beat undersized DBs that are trying to cover him. Opposing defenses will not be able to double him as they will have to contend with Hines Ward as well Randle El and Staley as a short option."

Plaxico Burress Projections