Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's nice to see Priest Holmes getting the respect he deserves for once. After Holmes burst onto the scene with a 2,100+ yard/10 TD season in 2001 I spent the better part of the following offseason explaining why his performance was not a fluke. The next year, after putting up a historic season of almost 2,300 yards and 24 TDs, I again had to defend his position as the top option because people feared his shoulder injury would slow him down. Well, after breaking the NFL single season record for touchdowns last year (27) on his way to a 2nd consecutive 1st place finish (and his 3rd straight top 2 finish) it seems I no longer have to explain to everyone that Priest Holmes is one of the best players of his generation.

It seems a tragedy now that so many of his earlier seasons were wasted as a backup in Baltimore. At 31 years old, he has far less wear and tear than most backs his age, yet one can't escape the fact that players, regardless of their workload, have a tougher time physically recovering from everyday aches and pains as they climb into the 30s.

So, to no one's surprise, Priest is the consensus top overall fantasy pick this year. If you don't have the 1st pick, you likely aren't getting him in most drafts. But you might get him in mine. Yes, as much as I think Priest Holmes is one of the best fantasy players to ever play the game, I wouldn't take him 1st overall this year…but I would still take him 2nd.

Seems like a small difference and to most it's inconsequential. But let me take you through the rationale of why I don't think Priest will be the top fantasy player in 2004.

1. Topping the charts for 3 straight seasons is near impossible - Priest Holmes has been the top fantasy player for two consecutive seasons; hitting that mark in three straight years is immeasurably difficult. Too many factors are at play for someone to repeat as THE top performer. Their own health, the health of their supporting cast, the team's schedule, the play of other top players are but a few reasons. To be fair, it's difficult but not impossible (and I wouldn't be stunned to see Priest atop the fantasy standings again) as Emmitt Smith accomplished the feat (four straight seasons as #1) but other notables including Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and Marshall Faulk fell short in their attempt at a three-peat.



2. Holmes doesn't seem to have the fire in his belly of a year ago - Last offseason, Holmes wanted a new contract commensurate with his production and also had to prove to the world that his shoulder issues were a thing of the past. As a result Holmes took every opportunity to declare himself fit and ready for his best season yet; and played in the full passel of preseason games while making it clear he would consider holding out when the real season started without a new deal. Well, he got his deal and had a record setting year in 2003. This season, Holmes hasn't been expounding his own virtues; and has even admitted to feeling worn out at times and (GASP!) contemplated retirement.



3. 20+ Touchdown seasons don't grow on trees - What Holmes accomplished the last two seasons (51 touchdowns) is mind boggling. Consider that in the history of the NFL, a player has scored 20+ touchdowns only 18 times. Think about that, 18 times in the history of the league. Holmes is in rarefied company as a 2-time member of the 20-TD Club…joining Marshall Faulk (2000-2001) and Emmitt Smith (1994-1995). But what's important to note is that neither Faulk nor Smith were able to put up a third season of 20+ TDs; as I stated earlier it's simply too difficult to maintain that level of production with so many variables at play.

OK, enough skepticism, after all I'm supposed to be the Priest Holmes cheerleader around these parts. While I don't think he'll hit the 20 TD plateau this year, or finish as the top fantasy player, I also see no way that he'll fall out of the top three or four RBs this season barring injury. And that means that once LaDainian Tomlinson was off the board, I couldn't argue with anyone who wanted to roster him.

Positives

• The Chiefs offensive returns intact with the exception of RT John Tait



• Defenders can't key on Holmes exclusively because the Chiefs passing game is equally deadly



• Holmes led the league in goal line carries last season (27) and converted an astounding 63% of those carries; plus he was the most efficient RB in TDs-per-touch for the 2nd straight season

Negatives

• At 31 years old, despite a relatively limited workload early in his career, Holmes recovery time from injury is probably slower than some of his younger contemporaries



• The loss of John Tait probably isn't an issue, but it IS the first change to the Chiefs offensive line in Holmes tenure



• No RB has every had three 20+ TD seasons, and few have ever repeated as the top fantasy player for three straight seasons

Final Thoughts

In most leagues Priest Holmes is going to be the first overall pick; yet history suggests he's not likely to finish as the top fantasy player. Does that mean it's a bad pick? No, because Holmes is as likely to finish at the top spot as anyone else; and winning fantasy football is largely about playing the odds. So if you have the 1st pick and use it on Holmes, rest assured that barring injury you'll get top tier production; but just recognize that one or two other league mates may have a more productive player on their roster at year end.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

With so much controversy surrounding Holmes at this time a year ago, it's amazing what a difference twelve months makes. Lest you forget:

• Priest Holmes was coming off an ugly hip injury that was potentially career threatening. There was a strong chance in many minds that Holmes would miss part of even all of last year.



• Whether or not he would suit up, he missed a lot of offseason workouts. A known workout-warrior, this was supposed to hinder Holmes' durability in 2003.



• The Chiefs drafted Larry Johnson, in part because of Holmes' injury problem and his age. The 2,000 yard collegiate star was supposed to spell a healthy Holmes, and maybe even take his job if the hip wasn't healed.



• Lastly, there were talks of a holdout. Priest was (rightfully) unhappy with his contract, where he wasn't being paid commensurate to his on-field production.

Holmes certainly proved that he was healthy as he ran for twenty-seven touchdowns, setting an NFL record. In their postseason loss to the Colts, Holmes racked up 208 total yards and, you guessed it, two more TDs. The best offense in the league revolves around Priest Holmes, making him an absolute fantasy stud. Kansas City has led the league in scoring the past two years, and return just about everyone on offense. The lone noticeable absence is that of RT John Tait.

Holmes has had tremendous success during his three year Chiefs career. His first year, he led the league in total yards. His second, he led the league in total yards (again), and in total touchdowns. Last year, while the yardage dropped, the touchdowns increased. He's caught at least 600 yards each year in Kansas City, and his receptions and yardage have increased each year.

Positives

• Holmes is a complete RB, with the ability to run inside and outside, catch the ball, and score



• With or without John Tait, Kansas City still posses one of the best offensive lines in the game



• Dick Vermeil's system is tailor made for star RBs, and emphasizes Holmes to the fullest extent



• With Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez and enough role playing WRs, the Chiefs passing attack keeps defenses honest



• Kansas City loves to run for touchdowns, making Holmes a fantasy stud

Negatives

• Holmes will eventually succumb to age, and he did see a sharp decrease in his yards per carry last year. However, 4.4 YPC is still impressive



• He's a victim of his own success. The Chiefs great offense often puts games out of reach early on, making Holmes ride the bench late in games. He had "only" 320 carries. He totaled 63% of his fantasy points during the first half of games last year, and saw his touches decrease in each quarter of play

Final Thoughts

There's no more doubting Priest Holmes, after many looked for him to fall last year. He's got relatively few questions surrounding him, and boatloads of talent. He's in a perfect situation, and should once again be a stud. He's talking of hitting the 2,000 yard mark, but I do think he'll fall well short of that. However, he will once again be a touchdown menace, and likely the first overall pick in most redraft leagues this season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click click here.

Cunning Linguist:
"I can't imagine that Priest could put better numbers this year. He must have peaked, right? Sure. But so what if he did? Everything appears to be the same going into this season as last, sans a hip injury questions and an offensive lineman; I'll call them a wash."

GOD HATES US ALL:
"Priest scored 27 and 22 rushing TDs the last two seasons. I can see a slide in these totals. But I wouldn't take it lower than 20 rushing td's. How many games was he pulled from in the third and fourth quarters because his team was up by 35 points? Think of all the lost stats from those games. He carried the ball 30+ times only once last year. And he has an Emmitt/Barry ability to avoid big hits."

Repressed Dennis:
"The Chiefs return the same basic offensive cast for the 3rd year in a row. The first two years it was incredibly productive. Does that mean it will be again this year? My crystal ball says no. The NFL rarely stays constant, new wrinkles are being added all the time, various catch dream up new ways to exploit or stop their opponents...I think it's dangerous to assume that 2004 KC will look like 2003-2002 KC. The line is great, yes, but also getting long in the tooth - they are WAY overdue for injury trouble this year."

Neal Suidan:
"A lot has been made of Priest Holmes reaching the historically damning age for running backs of 31. Not so fast. The expected catching up of the wear-and-tear that Priest Holmes has experienced will be a few years ahead. He was never a feature back until coming to Kansas City three years ago, and never held a prominent number of carries with Baltimore before. If I were skeptical of Priest Holmes in any way for this upcoming season, it would be because of John Tait's departure. Still, I would sleep soundly with a stud like Holmes on my team."

KKrew:
"I guess I'd equate projecting KC to handicapping Secretariat (assuming I had a time machine). We know the Chiefs offense is great. But, it's tough to distribute the wealth. I have Green getting 25 passing TDs. I have Gonzo getting 8 of them. If the receivers total 14 or so, that doesn't leave much for Holmes to get. But, he's still #2 on my RB Board AND #2 overall."

Priest Holmes Projections