Spotlight - WR Randy Moss, Minnesota Vikings
|
Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
Jason Wood's Thoughts
What can I tell you about Randy Moss that you don't already know? He's one
of the league's most explosive and electrifying players and can do things that
no other receiver in the league is capable of. Last year was a season for the
ages, as Moss finished atop the WR rankings with 111 receptions, 1,632 yards
and 17 touchdowns.
- Moss' 267 fantasy points (using FBG scoring) were the 2nd most in NFL history;
behind Jerry Rice's 1995 season
- Moss' 17 touchdowns were the 4th most in NFL history; the 2nd time he's
accomplished the feat
- Moss' 111 receptions ties him for 15th best in a single season; this was
the 4th straight year Moss' reception totals have increased
- Moss' 1,632 yards receiving were the 10th most in NFL history; and nearly
200 yards more than his previous season best
- Moss' 1st place finish marks the 3rd time in his 6 year career he's been
atop the fantasy standings at year end; he's never finished worse than 5th
Oh, and he happened to achieve all this on a bum foot. Last season Randy Moss
played with plantar fasciitis. By his own estimation he was "80% to 90%."
I shudder to think what he would have done at 100%. I mention this because some
other observers have mentioned Moss' fasciitis as a reason to tread cautiously
this year; yet nothing is changed from last season when he dominated. And the
latest reports from training camp are that Moss' foot feels better than it felt
at any point last year.
To expect anything but another historic year makes little sense; and basically
a moot point because if YOU don't think Moss can put up another dominating year,
you can be sure that someone in your league does expect Moss to dominate again
and they'll pay the price to roster him if you won't.
Positives
- The best fantasy receiver on the planet; the only player with a realistic
shot at breaking Jerry Rice's 1995 benchmark
- Daunte Culpepper is one of the best QBs in the league, and he and Moss have
grown into good friends and are finally clicking on all cylinders on the field
- His plantar fasciitis, a hindrance last year (not that you would know it)
appears demonstrably better according to training camp reports
Negatives
- You'll have to use a 1st or early 2nd round draft choice on him, putting
you behind the 8 ball at the RB spot
- Moss has plantar fasciitis; which is reportedly getting better but something
that needs monitoring
- He might not be your favorite person to root for
Final Thoughts
So at what point do you justifiably roster Moss this year; assuming you
believe he's in line to dominate again?
Last season Randy Moss had a VBD value of 163 (meaning he was 163 points better
than WR30, the baseline player at his position); which put him 5th overall.
That means that point for point, Moss provided value to anyone that drafted
him in the 2nd part of the first round or beyond. The same holds true this year,
in my view. If by chance you draft a RB in round 1 and Moss inexplicably falls
to you in the 2nd (even the first pick of the 2nd round), don't make the mistake
of letting him get past you.
Chase Stuart's Thoughts
Randy Moss is the most unstoppable receiver on the planet. Before last year,
he was widely considered the best player at his position, and one of the top
three fantasy wide receivers. Well, 2003 just happened to be the year Randy
Moss set career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns. He now boasts the
following average season line for his six-year career:
- 88 receptions, 1,396 yards, 15.95 YPC, 13 TDs
Three times in his career Randy Moss has been the top WR in fantasy football;
all six years he has been in the top five. He's got an incredible combination
of talent and skill, and he's got a great quarterback throwing him the ball.
With the addition of Marcus Robinson, Moss may once again have a strong WR to
take the pressure off him. If this happens, look for his receptions to go down
but his yards per reception to increase.
With his freak-like ability, the sky is always the limit for Randy Moss. While
it's probably difficult to imagine him improving on last year's historic season,
Moss should be the first receiver taken in nearly every draft this year. He's
still just 27 years old, and the Vikings offense should be one of the very best
in football. While there were concerns about Moss' foot earlier in the offseason,
all signs point to a very healthy and effective Randy Moss in 2004. He spent
a lot of time in both the weight room and the film room-so expect a stronger
and smarter Randy Moss.
Positives
- Has the most natural talent of any receiver in the league. He's proven every
single year that he's one of the five best fantasy receivers in football
- Daunte Culpepper is one of the better QBs in the league, and locks on to
Moss for big gains regularly
- With a great rushing attack, a strong offensive line and good complimentary
receivers, there is no weakness in the Minnesota offense. As great as Moss
is, teams can't focus all their attention on Moss
- As exciting and talented as he is, Moss is also consistent. You always
get a good year out of Randy
Negatives
- For the best receiver in the football, there are very few negatives. Even
the backup QB situation is stable in Minnesota. His health appears to be fine,
and he's never missed a game in his career. The only downside to drafting
Moss is that you'll likely be hurting at RB
Final Thoughts
Few have ever played as well as Moss has the past six seasons. There's no reason
to expect him to slow down, and he's the number one receiver in a dynasty league,
redraft league and points per reception league. At some point in every draft,
an owner is going to decide to forego the slew of RBs being drafted for the
top receiver in the league. I think after the first seven or eight running backs
are gone is about the time to take him. Remember, RBs suffer more injuries than
receivers and tend to be inconsistent. Moss' value lies in that he's a guaranteed
200 FPs.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"He's the one wide receiver that can win you a week during the season.
He's capable of scoring 3 td's and 150 yards vs. anyone. I don't like riding
the favorite all the time, but there's no reason that Randy Moss doesn't have
another fantastic year in 04. Minnesota will be close to making the playoffs
this season and I'm sure they'll use Randy in just about every way to get them
there."
Punchie:
"I've never drafted a receiver in the first round before, but this year
I just may... With the supposed enforcement of the 5-yard rule a DB won't be
able to ride Moss' jersey downfield which I think will help Moss significantly."
Canowupass:
"The only possible negative against Moss that I can come up with is
that the Purple will be in fewer shootouts this year because of their improved
defense. That said, Tice has said that he learned his lesson about playing too
conservatively against lesser opponents last year."
Ministry of Pain:
"Moss is too big to not hold slightly by defenders with the new 5 yd
enforcement rule. With his speed and raw skills, I just cannot see any corner
in the league doing anything to knock him off."
Facecow:
"I don't know if Marcus Robinson picks up the slack but I have a hunch
that my favorite team mixes things up a bit more this year."
Randy Moss Projections
Source |
Rec
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
FntPts
|
Jason Wood |
97
|
1450
|
13
|
223
|
Chase Stuart |
100
|
1600
|
14
|
244
|
Message Board Consensus |
102
|
1566
|
15
|
247
|
|