Jason Wood's Thoughts

You should proceed with extreme caution this year with the Chicago Bears. It's not as though there's one reason for treading lightly, there are lots of reasons:

• Inexperienced starting quarterback


• New, yet unproven, lead running back


• Uncertain WR situation


• Reshuffled offensive line


• First-time NFL head coach (with a defensive background)


• First-time NFL offensive coordinator

Let me be clear, I applaud the moves GM Jerry Angelo made this offseason. The once proud Bears franchise was mired in mediocrity for too long and the Dick Jauron era was hardly inspiring. Hiring Lovie Smith, a high energy defensive mind may be the perfect fit for the Windy City; and I can't fault Smith for wanting to hire young coordinators who want to play aggressively on both sides of the ball. I also think the Bears are making the right decision in committing to 2nd year QB Rex Grossman; as there's no better time than the present to determine if he's capable of leading this franchise back to playoff contention…in future years.

Make no mistake about this; if the Bears were to make the playoffs in 2004 Lovie Smith would be a runaway Coach of the Year winner. The team is simply coming from too far back to expect greatness overnight. The defense was too porous against the run (and Lovie is completely reinventing the scheme) and the offense, which ranked 29th last year, needs more than a few free agent pickups to turn around.

Don't underestimate the impact of coaching inexperience. Lovie Smith has never been an NFL head coach. DC Ron Rivera has never been a coordinator. And for fantasy purposes, the entire offense is being handled by OC Terry Shea, who (you guessed it) has never been an NFL coordinator. Shea, a protégé of Dick Vermeil's in Kansas City, was brought on board with the promise of implementing the Vermeil spread offense in Chicago; the same offense which led to success in St. Louis and Kansas City in recent years. But to expect this coaching staff to not make mistakes, sometimes glaring, is being naïve. Perhaps they have what it takes to turn the Bears around long term, but this is a year of building a foundation and evaluating the in house talent.

Grossman has no competition for the job; but does he have the weapons? I love the fact that Grossman is being handed the job with little to no serious competition forcing him to look over his shoulder. If the team believes he's a franchise caliber QB, they need to let him play unabated and learn from his on field mistakes. For fantasy purposes, Grossman has more security than other young QBs including Carson Palmer and Tim Rattay, but does he have the weapons to capitalize?

• Wide Receivers - The jury is out on David Terrell, Justin Gage and company. Terrell seems ill equipped for the Vermeil offense, which favors fluid receivers who get in and out of their routes precisely. Gage is more of a Vermeil prototype but is unproven; his development will go a long way in determining Grossman's prospects in 2004 and beyond.



• Tight Ends - Desmond Clark enjoyed a very good season in Denver back in 2001, finishing the season as the 4th best fantasy TE. Last year he played well for Chicago, and could be Grossman's go-to weapon in the red zone; but no one should confuse Clark for Tony Gonzalez.



• Running Backs - At the epicenter of the Rams and Chiefs success is the play of all-world RBs Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes. Vermeil's system relies on the running back being an equally adept playmaker as a runner or receiver, who has the skill set to line up in any formation and score from any place on the field. Color me jaded, but I don't see either Thomas Jones or Anthony Thomas being close to the players Holmes and Faulk are. Just because Jones was signed as the "Priest Holmes of our offense" to quote GM Jerry Angelo doesn't mean he'll have half the impact.



• Offensive Line - The other mainstay of the Rams & Chiefs offense are excellent offensive lines. Can we say the same about the Bears offensive line? Is John Tait (brought over from Kansas City) enough to change the dynamic of this line? Can Ruben Brown prove he's not washed up? Can Qasim Mitchell handle the LT job?

Positives

• The unquestioned starter, his backups pose little threat of outplaying him



• Grossman reported to camp in fantastic shape, and has the fundamentals to be a productive NFL player



• The offensive line should be improved with the addition of John Tait, particularly if Qasim Mitchell can handle the job on the left side

Negatives

• The Bears field the least experienced coaching staff in the league, growing pains and uneven development are to be expected



• Do the Bears have the personnel to play the KC/STL spread offense?



• Grossman lacks mobility, a particular liability for a young signal caller playing on a rebuilding team

Final Thoughts

So much of a quarterback's success is whether he's in a system that suits his abilities and the quality of the surrounding offensive personnel. It's as much about the line play, the coaching staff, the maturation of the wide receivers, Desmond Clark's health, and the upside of Thomas Jones and Anthony Thomas as it is about whether Rex Grossman is in shape (he is), has a big enough arm (he does) and can read defense (we'll see). In good conscience, Grossman should be considered no more than a 3rd QB, someone who if things fell just right could be a decent bye week or injury fill-in.

Marc Levin's Thoughts:

The one year Kordell Stewart experiment with the Chicago Bears is over, as is the vanilla offense that former head coach Dick Jauron employed. In comes new head coach and former St. Louis Rams defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Smith has Terry Shea as his offensive coordinator and that means the team should be much more energized and exciting - especially on offense. The quarterback position was handed to second year player and former Florida Gator Rex Grossman. While he lacks ideal size, Grossman knows how and where to pass, he is mentally adept at the game, and he has a nice quick release. He started the Bears' final three games in 2003 with unmemorable results.

However, through training camp and a preseason game against St. Louis, he has looked very good. He is clearly picking up the offense. He also has some potentially good targets in former first round selection David Terrell, Justin Gage, and tight end Desmond Clark. The offensive load will be balanced as the Bears signed Thomas Jones to man the backfield with Anthony Thomas.

This is what Shea had to say about his QB:

"He has a real penchant for making plays up the field and then every once in a while he'll misfire because he got fooled, and that's just youth. When he throws a ball into a linebacker that drops, that's youth. Those things will probably have to be part of his curve, but there's such an upside to his curve, it's incredible."

Reading into that, Grossman will struggle with inexperience as he needs to learn to properly read defenses, but the team is confident he is a fast learner and will stay within the offense. Also, as Lovie Smith said:

"In the huddle, there's no doubt who the leader of the team is. They all know it. There's just him stepping into the huddle, making the calls, guys believing, receivers knowing that he's going to get them the ball."

Motivating teammates and properly running the offense are going to be Grossman's strength, but lofty passing numbers will probably be elusive. For your fantasy outlook, Grossman's worth is suspect. Except in start-2 QBs leagues or leagues with more than 16 teams, it is unlikely Grossman will have much use to a fantasy team. That explains why he is commonly one of the very last QBs taken in 12-team redrafts, and most often as a third QB.

Grossman is worth a look in dynasty leagues if you can afford to wait a year or two for him and the offense to develop, especially since the Bears still need some more receiving depth. He may have moments, but they will probably be hard to predict. In short, I see a struggle for Grossman to put up decent fantasy numbers, let alone enough consistency to make him worth a start except out of desperation.

Positives

• New HC Smith is installing an offense that is more quarterback friendly than past Bears offenses



• Has the skills and confidence of his teammates to be the team's leader



• No competition for the starting role, and he is expected to make mistakes, so he probably will play all 16 games

Negatives

• Not very many reliable receiving options after trading the sure-handed Marty Booker



• His inexperience will probably result in quite a few turnovers, which is costly in leagues that penalize for them



• The team is likely to concentrate on the running game after signing Jones and keeping Thomas.

Final Thoughts

While the new offense looks good, it will take time for it to gel. Grossman looking good in mid-August will be a lot different than him looking good September through December. He simply has very limited fantasy worth or upside for 2004, though he may be worth an investment as a QB3 in dynasty leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"Rex Grossman has thrown 72 passes in his NFL career. Lovie Smith has never been a head coach or an offensive coordinator in the NFL. I'm guessing those two pieces of information pretty much spell doom for the Bears offense in 2004. No Bear gets whacked by that belief more than Grossman."

fightingillini:
"This will be a tough year for Grossman. New OC makes for a shaky transition period. But I feel the Bears will be playing from behind quite often this year, so I think the yards will be better than what others think. Will make a lot of mistakes this year....as a CHI homer, I better have patience!"

MU Seminole:
"He is the clear starter in the NFL's most QB-friendly system. The STL/KC system alone means that Grossman deserves serious consideration as an intermediate-term QB prospect.

As a former first round pick, he will be given every chance to succeed. The team's other QB (J Quinn, C Krenzel) are not serious threats to PT. His supporting cast, however, will not do much to boost his stats in '04. Chicago's WRs do not fit the system (quick and fast) and are unproven at best. In 2004, look for Grossman to rely more on the short passing game and to utilize the TE and RB."

jcjets:
"Let me get this right. The Rams hired L. Smith in 2001 as their defensive coordinator. They went from the 31st defense to 7th his first year in points given up. The next year they went from 7th best to 23rd best. The next year they finished 17th. Sounds like a middle of the road defense to me. Now he's a head coach working on offense for the first time while trying to get the Bear defense back on track.

I wish him luck, but don't expect big things offensively this year in Chicago."

Rex Grossman Projections