Jason Wood's Thoughts

Let's see…

• Rich Gannon is 38 years old
• He's coming off major shoulder surgery
• A new coaching staff, with no ties to Gannon, has taken over
• Kerry Collins, a 32-year old rocket-armed starting caliber QB was signed in the offseason
• Gannon is due to make $7 million this year

If you were to think that these factors added up to Gannon being given his unconditional release this offseason you would not have been alone. However, contrary to conventional wisdom, not only has Gannon been retained for 2004, there has been nary a hint at a QB competition.

Back in May, right after Collins signed with Oakland…
"Obviously I've played a lot in this league and started a lot of games," Collins said Tuesday in Alameda, Calif. "But when I came here they made it clear what the situation would be. I understood that Rich would be the starter and I will be the guy that's there if something happens to Rich. That will be my approach."

Friday, July 30…
Reporter: "Kerry, are you competing for a starting job?"
Collins: `No, I am not."
Reporter: "Why?"
Collins: "That's what they told me was going to happen when I came here."

Additionally, Gannon has publicly acknowledged his motivation from being counted out by football pundits and fantasy football gurus alike…

"I think you get motivated anytime you have an injury like I had or the criticism that I've had," (Gannon said). "My skills, my talent have been questioned by members of the media ... by football people, by fantasy football people. I take it personally. I don't understand how a person goes from the MVP of the league and in four straight Pro Bowls, then he gets hurt and he's a bum."

OK, so I think it's fair to say that Gannon has a very real shot at being the starter for a full 16 games. He's been healthy in mini camp and the first few weeks of training camp, and has shown no ill effects from his surgically repaired shoulder. Now, with that in mind, what should we expect from Gannon and the passing game in Oakland?

• Offensive line looks promising - The offensive line was a strength of the 2002 Super Bowl team, and a weakness last year. The Raiders made the necessary moves this offseason to ensure the line was no longer a deterrent to winning games. Ron Stone was brought in via free agency, and the team used the 2nd overall pick on mammoth blue chip tackle Robert Gallery. The team followed that up with a 2nd round pick on G/C Jake Grove; who is already playing with the first team. Not only does this line have an infusion of talent, the depth is also exceptional with last year's guards Mo Collins and Frank Middleton likely backing up this year.



• Receiving corps is uncertain - The release of Tim Brown officially signaled the beginning of a new era in Oakland. This year's starters will be the ageless Jerry Rice and the "will he ever be a star" Jerry Porter. Behind them are Ron Curry, Doug Gabriel and a passel of other pass catchers including TEs Teyo Johnson and Doug Jolley. New HC Norv Turner likes to throw the ball deep to the outside off play action; but it's unclear whether the personnel fit that mold. A HUGE question mark for Gannon's success will be if Jerry Porter emerges as a legitimate WR1 this year; I have my doubts.



• Offensive system - When Jon Gruden took control in Oakland many were stunned that Al Davis would allow someone to implement to West Coast offense; yet success breeds acceptance and Davis tolerated (for a while) Gruden and Bill Callahan's system because the team was winning a ton of games. But now that Callahan has been shown the door, Davis hired Norv Turner to bring back the deep passing attack that was the Raiders hallmark for so long. Turner has always preferred a heavy dose of running to set up the deep passing game; and has enjoyed varied degrees of success in his stints in Dallas, Washington and most recently Miami.

Positives

• Gannon enjoyed four consecutive top 3 fantasy finishes prior to last year when he injured his shoulder



• Collins is probably one of the best backups in the league; he should be among the first backups drafted in redrafts



• The offensive line looks much improved with the additions of Gallery, Grove and Stone

Negatives

• Gannon is 38 years old, coming off major shoulder surgery and was a marginal QB talent prior to embracing Jon Gruden's system - which no longer exists in Oakland



• Norv Turner has had modest success as an NFL head coach; his reputation as an offensive genius is probably overstated



• The receiving corps cannot be considered among the league's elite especially if Jerry Porter fails to take the giant leap forward so many are predicting

Final Thoughts

Net-net, I believe Rich Gannon has enough weapons at his disposal that if the line plays as well as I expect, he'll be anywhere from a decent QB2 to a very solid QB2 (i.e., top 15 QB). I think the worries about Kerry Collins taking over and people's tendency to focus on last year exclusively has led to Gannon being undervalued. His current average draft position is 23rd (12th round in 12-team mock drafts) and that probably is a little low provided Gannon remains healthy this season.

So where does Kerry Collins fit into the equation? Simply put, I think Kerry Collins gets too much credit as a threat. Yes, he's started a ton of games and led the New York Giants to the Super Bowl a few years ago. However, Collins has dramatic flaws in his game. Most notably, as someone who's seen Collins in action on many occasions, he's robotic. Collins is the type of QB who fails miserably if asked to improvise. He'll make his reads and make the throw if it's there, but God forbid if he needs to react quickly in the face of a pass rush or check down to his 4th or 5th option. While Collins' experience in the Giants system allowed him to react more naturally over time, he's now faced with learning a new system, with new receivers; that means he'll be a shadow of the efficient QB he become a few years into his Giants career, in my view. Additionally, from a fantasy perspective, Collins has never been better than a middle-of-the-road backup. In 10 NFL seasons, the majority as a starter, he's thrown more than 20 touchdowns exactly once.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts:

A year ago, Rich Gannon and Kerry Collins were coming off strong years. Gannon of course was the league MVP-and Collins was one of just four players to throw for 4,000 yards in 2002. Well, what a difference a year makes. Gannon is now viewed as one of the bottom fantasy QBs in the league, and Collins is backing up Rich Gannon. Let's start by looking at one of the worst collapses in the history of passing the football. Here's the Oakland aerial assault:

• 2002: 418 completions, 619 attempts (67.5%), 4,689 yards (7.58 Y/A); 26 TDs, 10 INTs



• 2003: 278 completions, 522 attempts (53.3%), 2,988 yards (5.72 Y/A); 9 TDs, 14 INTs

In 2002, Gannon finished just a point behind Daunte Culpepper for the top spot among fantasy QBs. Last year, Gannon ranked #37th, just a point ahead of fellow Raider Rick Mirer.

There's no doubt that the Raiders passing offense will lie somewhere in between the past two years-the question is which season will it more closely resemble?
Right now Gannon is being drafted late thirteenth round, with Collins going a couple of rounds later. I think you can't draft one without the other, but is there good value to get them both? The pick value calculator says those two picks, are equal to an eleventh round pick. That's around the Carson Palmer, Tommy Maddox, Rex Grossman section of your QB lists. The way I see it, drafting both Raiders QBs will offer you strong insurance in case of injury, thus making solid QB2 and QB3s for your roster. You can draft one of the studs early, and then both of these players late. And what do we expect out of them?

One would imagine a healthy Jerry Porter, star rookie T Robert Gallery, rookie interior lineman Jake Grove, three-time Pro Bowl Guard Ron Stone and RB Amos Zereoue to improve the offense. Rice is still excellent at getting open, and the Raiders have Norv Turner running the offense now. However, Brown is a shell of his former self, and Charlie Garner was a huge part of that 2002 offense. With Garner off to Tampa Bay, Oakland has a ton of running backs that are nothing more than mediocre.

Positives

• An improved team all around should help the bruised egos from a year ago. Out went the malcontent ex-coach, and in came improvement on both lines



• Three TEs that can catch (Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson, and Roland Williams), the Jerrys, Rice and Porter, and the lack of a great running game all are positives for the passing attack



• Both Gannon and Collins have excelled in the past, so there's not a ton of questions about their ability. They've played in Super Bowls and Pro Bowls, and can rack up the yards

Negatives

• Both are coming off poor seasons, and age is a concern especially with Gannon



• The loss of Garner really hurts them-and they're installing a new offensive system, with a bunch of new players. There's no doubt that they will need some time to gel. Gannon had a significantly higher completion percentage when Charlie Garner was around



• No matter how you slice it, Oakland was just atrocious last year. They don't have a ton of youth, and it remains to be seen which year (2002 or last season) was the fluke

Final Thoughts

I think Rich Gannon's going to be the guy here, but he's not going to have a long leash. I'm not positive that he's the better QB, and Norv Turner has loyalties to no one. Whether due to injury (Gannon's 38) or poor play, we should see Kerry Collins this year. I think it's very risky to grab one without the other, but very smart to grab them both. If you could afford the roster space, you'll feel comfortable about your backups. As for where they're going in drafts right now, you could do a lot worse.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"Prior to the Bill Callahan-induced free-fall of 2003 Da Raiders averaged 26 passing TDs and 19 rushing TDs from 1999 through 2002. Somehow the 2003 squad managed only 24 total TDs. I'm thinking the offense will rebound some in 2004.

Why? Well, Norv Turner must be considered, at a minimum, an addition by subtraction. Callahan's out - that's got to be good."

Silver & Black:
"The way the Collins courting and signing played out, I have no doubt that this is Gannon's club this year. He will go into the season as the starter (assuming of course he is as healthy as advertised) and with a rejuvenated O-line and plenty of talent to throw to, I think Gannon is going to be a major sleeper/value type QB this year."

SammyJankis:
"In this case, anyone that would consider the Gannon/Collins gambit has to ask themselves three questions in a redraft:

1) Do I feel confident that I'll know who the starter is at my draft and if so, is that guy likely to keep the job (barring injury of course)?

2) If the answer is no, do I want to burn two roster spots on this situation?

3) Is the upside of the Oakland QB situation enough to warrant the cost? (As in two roster spots)

My answers:

1) It depends on when your draft is. I feel like the guy that gets named the starter is going to start the year (barring injury). If you hold the draft a week before NFL kickoff, chances are either Gannon will be named the starter (for this year) or he'll be released.

2) Again, if your draft is late enough, you might only need one roster spot. If it's early, you can use both spots with an eye on cutting the backup loose after you feel better about who starts.

3) Per Antsports mocks, in 10 team leagues, Gannon goes at 13.05 (QB 23) and Collins at 14.06(QB 28). So if an owner was so inclined, they could let their backup QB slide until the end of the draft and pick up these two before picking up a kicker. Again, I don't think you're talking about using those spots all year long, just long enough to figure out who's the guy. So the cost is very very low. Is the upside there for Gannon/Collins? Well in 2002 Gannon finished as QB2 in FBGs scoring system. Last year Oakland QBs were awful, dead last in TD passes and near the bottom in passing yardage. Which offense can we expect to see this year? Well I think where opinions would differ most would agree that the passing game will be better than 03, but not as good as 02, but that's a lot of ground. I'm of the mind that the Oakland passing offense will be good, possibly very good. Not 02 good mind you, but good."

Pigskin Fanatic:
"I agree wholeheartedly that the Raiders' passing game will be prolific. I still believe in Porter and the team's numbers speak for themselves. However, taking a chance on Gannon is too big of a risk and since no one in their right minds would count on Gannon to be their QB1 entering the season (unless of course you are in a very very very deep league), I'm hear to tell you to take Kerry Collins on draft day."

Rich Gannon Projections

Kerry Collins Projections