Jason Wood's Thoughts

In order to favor Rod Smith this year, you HAVE to have unyielding confidence in Mike Shanahan's abilities to craft a productive offense from whatever hand he's dealt. Last year, the Broncos finished 10th in points scored and 8th in total yards; but that was largely thanks to Clinton Portis. The Broncos were 2nd in rushing yards and 3rd in rushing touchdowns; while the passing numbers were far less compelling. Specifically, the Broncos ranked 23rd in passing yards (3,126) and 18th in passing touchdowns (19).

This year, the team faces major offensive holes thanks to the departure of Clinton Portis (traded to Washington), and the retirement of Shannon Sharpe and Ed McCaffrey. From a receiving standpoint, those three players represented:

• 119 receptions
• 1,279 yards
• 8 touchdowns

When your team only passes for 3,100 yards to begin with, you can't afford to not find adequate replacements for another 1,300 yards of production. With that in mind, Rod Smith will have every opportunity to prove that last year's lackluster performance was an anomaly.

Recall that Smith caught 74 receptions for 845 yards and 3 touchdowns last season; good for 25th among fantasy receivers. It marked the first time Smith finished with less than 1,000 yards since 1996. Again, with so much of last year's receiving production up for grabs, you KNOW that Smith will be targeted heavily this year, that's not in question. But what we have to determine is whether he's got enough ability left to make the most of the increased opportunity?

Were last year simply an outlier that could be explained away by injury, I would feel better about Smith's chances this year. However, at 34 years old, it appears that his production is on a multi-year decline; and reversing course may not be likely in terms of his physical ability. Take a look at Smith's 4-year trend in key receiving categories:

• Receiving yards - 1,602 to 1,343 to 1,027 to 845
• Receptions - 100 to 113 to 89 to 74
• Yards per reception (YPR) - 16.0 to 11.9 to 11.5 to 11.4
• Touchdown receptions - 8 to 11 to 5 to 3
• Fantasy points - 208 to 200 to 133 to 103

Positives

• Smith should see a ton of targets this season with the loss of Sharpe, McCaffrey and Portis
• Even last year's disappointing showing resulted in top 25 production; it won't take much for Smith to bounce back into the top 20
• Smith is a precise route runner and knows every nuance of the Broncos offense; QB Jake Plummer and he have another year of rapport build up after a 2nd training camp together

Negatives

• The team was in the bottom half of the league in passing yards and TDs last year; with Shannon Sharpe and Clinton Portis, the offense could drag to a halt this season unless Plummer blossoms in year 2 under Shanahan's watch



• Smith is a on 4-year downtrend; at 34 years old it's hard to predict a turnaround



• Ashley Lelie will be given the opportunity to become the team's main receiving weapon; should he fulfill that potential, Smith may be in line for a 5th consecutive down year

Final Thoughts

As much as I want to root for Rod Smith and believe he HAS to be successful this year for the Broncos offense not to be derailed, it's just difficult for me to look at the aforementioned metrics and not see an aging receiver in permanent decline. Could he get back into the 130-140 point mark this season? Possibly; and that would more than justify his selection as your WR3, but a lot of people think Smith can be a solid WR2 again this year. Of that I'm not sure.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Rod Smith had a down year in 2003 despite 74 receptions. The number of receptions was in line with what we expect, but less than 1000 yards and only 3 TDs are the lowest outputs in those categories since Smith's second year in the league - way back in 1996. Smith has seen declining yards per catch over the last three years. In 2001, he was at 11.9, in 2002, he was at 11.5, and last year was a career low 11.4. Why? Declining skills? Change in offensive scheme? Competition for the deep ball? It is probably a combination of all these things.

Smith turned 34 in 2004. The Broncos have run the ball a lot more the last two or three years. Smith has been asked to run shorter routes and make the tough first down catch as Ashley Lelie is expected to be the deep threat. And, the return of Shannon Sharpe to the team in 2002 likely stole some looks downfield. Finally, the Broncos have had inconsistent quarterback play since John Elway retired. All of these factors likely combined to hurt Rod's numbers.

However, there is optimism for 2004. Sharpe retired, RB Clinton Portis was traded away and the team is not set (at this date) on a new starter, and the receiving corps is essentially a two man team of Smith and Lelie. The other WRs on the team are unproven and generally inexperienced. And Smith is still a reliable target, he still runs great routes, and he is still the team's "#1 receiver." Finally, the offense seemed to click fairly well with QB Jake Plummer, and a second year in the system should mean more confidence from Jake passing the ball.

Moreover, last year's 3126 yards passing on 478 attempts were the lowest team numbers in those categories since before their Super Bowl years - that was the lowest output in both categories since Smith was a Bronco. In other words, historical averages indicate the team will probably pass quite a bit more this year than they did last year. That thought is buffered by the unsettled RB situation, potentially forcing the team to the air more often than when Portis was around.

From a fantasy perspective, Smith is being drafted relatively low - outside the top-24 WRs in the majority of drafts - and often just one round ahead of Ashley Lelie. That tells me Smith could represent great value. If you are able to land a WR3 of Smith's caliber, I'd call that a darned good move. I would expect his TD totals to come up a bit since he will probably get more looks in the red zone with Sharpe and Portis gone. I also expect his receptions and yardage to approach, if not exceed, last year's totals. If he matches last year's numbers and gets a bump of a few TDs, Smith could easily work his way into your WR2 spot, and he makes a solid flex play if you are not able to start three RBs for some reason.

He is one of the breed of supposedly aging receivers that are still performing - lump Smith in with Jimmy Smith, Jerry Rice, Eric Moulds, and even Marvin Harrison (two years younger than Smith) as the receivers who are bucking the "too old" trend. He rarely misses time and he gives weekly production you almost never see a zero when Smith is in your lineup. There is a lot to be said for adding that type of player in the mid-rounds of your re-draft.

You only have to ask yourself whether you believe the Broncos will rely on Smith again, and target him 115+ times, or whether he is too far on the downside and is being phased out. I go with the former - he will be used as much as ever and this year, he will be more productive for your fantasy squad than he was last year.

Positives

• Is likely the primary receiving threat with Sharpe and Portis gone and he plays on a traditionally productive offense - an offense that will likely pass more this year given their uncharacteristically low passing output in 2003



• Has averaged 87 receptions, 1177 yards, and 7 TDs per year over the last seven years as a full time starter



• Should be available for very nice value in most drafts



• Has missed only 3 games in seven years

Negatives

• Age. 34 is starting to push it, even for wide receivers. Though Smith is a workout machine



• Could Lelie take over as the primary receiving threat? Lelie is also a threat to be the better fantasy receiver on the team



• Absence of Portis and Sharpe may enable defenses to concentrate on Smith more than in previous years

Final Thoughts

Rod Smith should be a draft day target under most scoring systems. While others are taking guys with mere possibilities, such as Dante Stallworth, Jerry Porter, and Charles Rogers, you may be better off getting a guy who rarely misses games, is heavily used by his team, and rarely fails to get you something each week. Upside is nice, and Smith is unlikely to crack the top-12 or top-15 for fantasy WRs, but he can be a rock at accumulating points for your fantasy squad if he can bump those TD numbers a bit. The yardage and receptions will be there, so he is especially valuable in pt/reception leagues - you can probably count on 70+ receptions from him in 2004. Of course, he is significantly less desirable in keeper and dynasty leagues, for obvious reasons.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Voodoo Rage:
"2000 - 1602 yards
2001 - 1343 yards
2002 - 1027 yards
2003 - 845 yards

See a trend? The guy is definitely on the decline and Lelie is probably going to assume the mantle this year."

Payne:
"I continue to be amazed at the lack of respect Smith gets. He's younger than J. Smith with a better QB, yet all you hear about is how he is on the decline, blah, blah, blah.

Lelie was supposed to take over last year and failed. Plummer will look to Smith A LOT. Sure he may not have the speed to break loose for a 70 yard bomb, but he'll get his 5 or 6 catches a game and rank in the top 25. I'll gladly let you pass on him and swoop him up as a WR3 in any league."

Repressed Dennis:
"This year, Smith should rebound, but I think only to a marginal degree. Plummer has never been an accomplished red zone passer, they have a couple of decent TE options to replace Sharpe, and Lelie should be better. I'm also concerned about QB depth behind Plummer - another injury could send their passing game back into the depths from last year."

I'm Rick James:
"Jerry Rice:
1999 San Francisco 67 830
2000 San Francisco 75 805
2001 Oakland 83 1139
2002 Oakland 92 1211

I bet when Jerry went to the Raiders, everyone said he was old, numbers were declining, he's done, etc.

I think Rod Smith will get a decent chunk of Shannon Sharpe's numbers. Everyone wants the sexy new sports car (Ashley Lelie, Jerry Porter, etc.). However, until they prove they are reliable, I'd stick with proven player first."

TheDirtyWord:
"Now, I have gone on record as saying I don't expect big things from Plummer. But with that said I do believe they can generate 3100-3200 passing yards. With Shannon Sharpe gone, there is not going to be a lot of competition for those yards. There is Ashley Lelie and then what...Willie Jackson? And Lelie is a very ho-hum option at this point himself. So event though I don't project Denver to be very effective on offense this year, someone has to be able to catch the ball in Denver and through a process of elimination...it almost has to be Smith, unless Lelie really raises his game a couple of notches."

Rod Smith Projections