Jason Wood's Thoughts

Rudi Johnson is currently being drafted in the middle of the 2nd round (according to Antsports 12-team mock draft results) and is the 15th RB off the board. In my view, that's exactly where Johnson should go, as I see him as a solid fantasy RB2 this year, capable of approaching 200 fantasy points.

Last year, Johnson went from unheralded backup to late season stud. No doubt plenty of owners picked Johnson up off waivers and rode him to fantasy playoff success down the stretch. In the final 10 games of last season, Johnson tallied:

• 177 carries


• 832 yards


• 4.7 YPC


• 8 TDs


• 125 receiving yards

Prorated over a full season, Johnson would have produced 283 carries for 1,331 yards rushing, 200 receiving yards and 13 TDs. And remember, Johnson also shared carries with Corey Dillon last year (even after being given the lead role)…Dillon had 76 carries over the 10 game span.

With the Bengals returning the same offensive line; and Corey Dillon being sent packing to New England, there's every reason to believe Johnson can build upon his breakout 2003. What's more encouraging is that Rudi Johnson possesses the trait that all great fantasy backs possess, he's at his best when he gets a heavy workload.

Johnson got 20+ carries in five games last year:

• vs. Buffalo - 20 for 69 yards, 10 yards receiving and a TD


• vs. Seattle - 27 for 101 yards, 16 yards receiving and a TD


• vs. Houston - 43 for 182 yards, 18 yards receiving and 2 TDs


• vs. Kansas City - 22 for 165 yards, 12 yards receiving


• vs. San Francisco - 21 for 174 yards, 8 yards receiving and 2 TDs

In games with 20+ carries (Per Game): 27 carries, 138 yards rushing (5.2 YPC), 13 receiving yards and 1.2 TDs = 22.3 fantasy points per game

In games with less than 20 carries (Per Game): 10 carries, 33 yards rushing (3.2 YPC), 10 receiving yards and 0.375 TDs = 6.6 fantasy points per game

Simply put, Rudi Johnson gets better with more carries and that bodes well as Marvin Lewis wants the Bengals to run a balanced offensive attack this year; particularly because QB Carson Palmer needs a reliable ground game to keep defenses from keying on him in his first foray as a starter.

What about Chris Perry? After Corey Dillon went to New England, fantasy owners saw clear skies ahead for Johnson; that is until the Bengals used their 1st round draft choice on Chris Perry, the studly RB from Michigan. Perry may be the most NFL ready of the entire rookie RB class, having played for a top tier program and shown himself to be a polished receiver out of the backfield to go along with the requisite running and blocking skills required of an NFL feature back. So shouldn't Perry's signing be seen as a warning to those targeting Johnson in the 2nd round? I don't believe so, at least not in 2004 and here's why:

• Perry held out - The learning curve is steep for rookies, and Perry held out long enough to be behind the 8-ball in my view



• The coaching staff view Perry as a 3rd down back - Marvin Lewis suggested that Chris Perry will compete for the 3rd down role this year in a recent chat on Bengals.com



• Perry has been outplayed by Johnson in camp - Johnson has been the better back according to camp reports. And in the first preseason game, Johnson was effective running against the Tampa Bay 1st team defense including converting a tough 3rd and 1 while Perry fumbled his first carry of the season deep in the Bengals own territory.

Positives

• Johnson gets first crack at being the lead runner this year; last year he shared carries with Corey Dillon even after proving himself as the main ball carrier



• Johnson averaged better than 5 yards per carry when given the ball 20+ times; he's the type of back that thrives on heavy workloads



• With Carson Palmer at QB, the team wants to run the ball a fair amount to keep defenses honest

Negatives

• Johnson is not much of a receiver, and will probably not play in obvious passing downs (i.e., 3rd and long situations)



• Johnson has a limited history of production; and three of his four 100+ yard rushing games came against suspect defenses



• Chris Perry, a 1st round pick, has the talent (and the contract) to figure heavily into the Bengals' long term plans

Final Thoughts

Rudi Johnson showed enough last season to warrant letting Corey Dillon move on to the Patriots. He's a battering ram of an inside runner who can carry defenders on his back; and he's a good fit to run behind the mammoth interior line in Cincinnati. Although Chris Perry was drafted in the 1st round, his hold out and subsequent missteps in camp suggest Perry's 2005 & Beyond are more promising than his 2004 outlook. All in all, Johnson should produce solid rushing numbers and at least 9-10 rushing touchdowns; but won't get enough receiving yardage to factor into the 1st tier of fantasy runners. Draft accordingly.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

The chant you could hear last year in Bengal-land was "RoodeeeRoodeeeRoodeee!" Rudi energized the Bengal running game where incumbent starting RB Corey Dillon was slowing down and moaning to the media about his lack of respect. The Bengals were exciting in 2003 - they had a balanced offensive attack, bravado on the offensive side of the ball, and new head coach Marvin Lewis had the Bengals believing in winning ball games again. And the pleasant surprise play of third-year back Rudi was one reason why. Rudi ran like a bowling ball - just plowing into and through people. And he displayed a nice knack for breaking through the first couple of tacklers and galloping for decent sized chunks of yardage. That running garnered Rudi a 4.45 YPC average in 2003 for his 215 rushes.

His performance was good enough to make Corey Dillon expendable - and a good riddance it seemed. Lewis does not stand for players who don't want to be there, and when Dillon packed his locker immediately after the Bengals' last preseason game, it was sayonara to him. The starting running back job for 2004 was seemingly handed to Rudi.

Then came the rest of the off season, which actually leaves Rudi's position a little murky. The team balked at giving Rudi an expensive contract extension and he will be playing for the Bengals in 2004 on his restricted free agent tender - in other words, Rudi will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2004 season unless the team uses its franchise tag on him (which is highly unlikely). Stepping on a limb here, but for you dynasty and keeper league players, expect Rudi to be wearing either the silver and black of the Oakland Raiders or the aqua and orange of the Miami Dolphins in 2005.

The team then also went ahead and drafted RB Chris Perry out of Michigan - who was probably the second or third best all around running back in a talent laden 2004 NFL draft. Perry brings nice moves, a fresh set of legs, and good hands to the team. Maybe the team missed it, but Rudi is actually a decent pass catching back - he caught 21 of the 23 balls sent his way and he was able to compile a nearly 7 yard per catch average - which is a quite acceptable receiving average for a running back. Since Perry signed before training camp concluded, he will have a full preseason under his belt and is expected to steal some carries from Rudi - especially if the team is already thinking about allowing Rudi to walk away after the 2004 season.

The next concern about Rudi is his schedule in 2004. The AFC North is the black and blue division for running backs - the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are annually two of the top run defense units in the league. It is no coincidence that Rudi's three worst outings in 2003 were against Baltimore twice and Pittsburgh once (Rudi did not play in the first Pittsburgh game, but Corey Dillon did, and he managed only 7 carries for 26 yards and no TDs).

This year does not get any easier as those two defenses return intact. To compound the problem, the Bengals find other run defense powerhouses on their schedule, including Miami, Denver, Tennessee, Dallas, New England and Buffalo. New England, Buffalo and Philadelphia as three of Rudi's last four games does not bode well for his performance in your fantasy playoffs. Most worrisome is that if the Bengals are eliminated from the playoffs prior to, or during, that stretch of games, a healthy dose of Chris Perry may be in store. That obviously virtually erodes Rudi's value to you during your most important stretch of the year.

Final point to make here - Rudi does not have very many "cream puffs" on his 2004 schedule. In 2003, Johnson's four best games were against Houston, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Seattle. Arizona, Buffalo, San Diego and St Louis comprised the remaining four non-divisional games for the Bengals in 2003. Rudi does not have anywhere near as easy a non-divisional schedule in 2004. I have already discussed how difficult it is to run in the AFC North. In this discussion, I have not yet mentioned how defenses had to play honestly against the Bengals in 2003 because QB Jon Kitna had a marvelous season playing catch with WR Chad Johnson. This year teams will likely have their ears pinned back early against second year player Carson Palmer and it is unclear whether the passing game will be able to take as much pressure of the running game as it was able to in 2003. Will the back be asked to block more? Just throwing that one out there, too.

So, what I see is a back who may be playing for an unrestricted free agent's contract, but who is facing some really tough defenses, has a rough fantasy playoff schedule, has a new quarterback at the helm, and has to deal with competition for carries and catches from the team's likely new 2005 feature back in rookie RB Perry. A mid-second round selection is about right for Rudi, but just bear in mind he carries a lot of risk - risk that is not likely to be alleviated by simply handcuffing Perry to him. In fact, I don't recommend that move - either avoid Rudi altogether, or ride him. I don't expect Perry to bail you out if Rudi struggles. If Perry takes the field for extended periods of time near the end of the year, it is against playoff contending teams during a stretch where the Bengals are likely to be simply playing out the string against some tough run defenses.

Positives

• Demonstrated an ability to break tackles and work for extra yardage.



• Big part of a balanced offensive attack



• HC Marvin Lewis has the Bengals headed in the right direction - winning games.

Negatives

• Competition from rookie Chris Perry for both carries and catches



• One of the toughest run defense schedules in the league, including games against tough run-defending divisional rivals and against tough defenses in the fantasy playoffs



• How balanced will the offense remain with new starter and second year player Carson Palmer behind center instead of last year's starter Jon Kitna?

Final Thoughts

The mantra for fantasy football player analysis is talent + opportunity = production. Rudi seems to fit that bill to a T - he has talent, and he should be receiving the bulk of the work for the balance of the year. Normally, that creates a solid "buy" in fantasy player stock terms. However, there are many reservations about the Bengals' schedule and their decision to bring in competition for Rudi in the form of a highly touted rookie running back is troubling. There is also the Sword of Damocles hanging over Rudi that the team was not willing to discuss a contract extension and was only willing to offer him his restricted free agent tender. Rudi appeared to accept that status willingly and may be playing out the remainder of his contract on the hopes that he will hit the unrestricted free agent market in 2005. I also have worries that, even if Rudi shows flashes during the season, by the time I need him in the fantasy playoffs, he won't be performing for me as well as he did during the rest of the season. I believe there are better options available for my mid to late second round pick (12 team league). But, that draft position is appropriate value for anyone willing to take a risk on Rudi playing well in 2004. And, in dynasty or keeper leagues, draft him willingly, as he could easily end up in a superb situation in 2005, regardless of his 2004 performance.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click click here.

Frenchy Fuqua:
"The Rudi situation eerily reminds me of the 1994 fantasy football draft and a RB for the Houston Oilers named Gary Brown. Brown was just coming off a 1,000 yard season in which he replaced the injured Lorenzo White. Little was expected of Gary Brown in 1993 and he delivered big time. In 1994 when expectations were 1000+ yards and many TDs (like Rudi) he failed. Much like the 1993-94 Oilers the 2003-04 Bengals are also transitioning to a younger QB (Oilers from Moon to Cody Carlson, Bengals from Kitna to Palmer) and focusing more on the run. I think Rudi has slightly better skills than Brown did but I think he is set up to underperform draft position just like Gary Brown did in 94. Don't make the same mistake I did in 1994, pass on Rudi until at least the late 2nd."

BigJim®:
"Only on a FF message board could a player prediction be based on a different player who played for a different team in a different decade. I mean seriously, you don't base your rating of a guy by how he reminds you of a set of circumstances which took place 10 years ago, where a completely unrelated RB lost his job to a completely unrelated vulture? I can understand a desire to try to draw inferences that give you an edge, but wow, comparing Rudi to Gary Brown and imploring others to learn from your mistake?"

Buddy Ball 2K3:
"I love this guy because he has a job to keep. Nothing in my opinion makes a player play harder then earning a big pay day. Rudi has two years to prove he is a money back and thus I see the guy having a very decent year."

Gopher State:
"Really hard schedule and really talented rookie in the wings =

1050 + 6 td's rushing

152 rec + 1 td

Numbers look like what I expect from other backs like C-Mart, Eddie G., but Johnson comes with to high of a draft pick for my liking."

Resistance 01:
"Rudi Johnson's biggest battle this season will be with consistency. He must overcome his home/away splits and learn how to play well against tough defenses, all while looking over his shoulder at his replacement-to-be in Chris Perry. This is a high pressure season for Rudi and I think he'll shine in his first full season as a feature back."

Rudi Johnson Projections