Jason Wood's Thoughts

Last season, Santana Moss was one of the steals of the draft. Considered a fantasy afterthought by many thanks to a combination of a preseason injury to Chad Pennington, Moss' previous history with bad hamstrings, and Moss' diminutive size; many fantasy owners viewed him as no more than someone for the tail end of your roster. You can be sure that by season's end, many of those owners who begrudgingly rostered him in the late rounds were now puffing out their chests over the "genius" that went into drafting him.

Moss went on to finish 8th among fantasy pass catchers with 74 receptions, 1105 yards and 10 touchdowns. Despite his size (5'10", 185 lbs.), Moss proved he was a complete receiver last season:

• Ability to score - 4th in the NFL in TD receptions with 10
• Ability to make plays with the ball - 6th in the AFC in yards after the catch
• Ability to hit home runs - 5th in the NFL with 12 catches of 25+ yards
• Ability to make plays in the red zone - 8th in the NFL with 10 catches in the red zone
• Ability to score in the red zone - 5th in the NFL in red zone TD catches with 5

Any way you slice Moss' season, it was exemplary. When you consider that Moss had to play without Chad Pennington for 5 games, and when he returned he was rusty for much of the season, Moss' accomplishments are all the more impressive. Don't forget that Moss was also the lone weapon in the receiving game as Curtis Conway was a colossal bust, and Wayne Chrebet was a non factor due to concussions.

In 2004, you can expect more of the same from Santana, and he makes a legitimate WR1 for fantasy purposes. Pennington is healthy and for the first time he and Moss have been able to work together as the respective top options at their positions. The addition of WR Justin McCareins means teams won't be able to double Santana with as much frequency; and the running game should be effective again with Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan towing the line.

One word of caution as you project Moss this season. His 10 TD receptions may be difficult to duplicate. History shows that very few receivers, regardless of talent, score double digits in consecutive seasons. With the addition of Justin McCareins, a big receiver, and TE Mikhael Ricks, I could see Moss having more receptions and yards but not a commensurate increase in touchdowns.

Positives

• Moss is sure handed and a precise route runner; he only had 4 drops in over 100 targets last season
• Chad Pennington is among the most accurate QBs in the game and Moss is his primary target
• Moss is a dangerous open field runner, he'll be used out of the backfield on occasion and should be among the league leaders in YAC

Negatives

• His size and history of injury have to give pause, was last year (100% healthy) the exception or the rule?
• Counting on 10 touchdowns again could prove foolish with the addition of Justin McCareins
• Moss' production took a turn for the worse when Pennington returned to the field last year

Final Thoughts

Sometimes people can be too hung up on size. If you look at Moss' numbers from last year or saw him play a few times, there should be no question in your mind that he's everything a WR1 should be. He's polished, able to get yards after the catch, able to get separation and make plays deep, rarely drops balls, and if very effective in the red zone. He's the teams unquestioned number one, and has a better supporting cast this year particularly in a 100% healthy Chad Pennington. Yet, plenty of people will discount Moss because he's short and weighs 185 pounds. But take a look around the NFL and you'll see plenty of smaller receivers dominating. Marvin Harrison (6'0", 175 lbs.), Steve Smith (5'9", 185 lbs.), Derrick Mason (5'10", 190 lbs.) and Laveranues Coles (5'11", 193 lbs.) are among the league's best just as Santana Moss is. Barring a recurrence of the hamstring problems that were troubling to Moss early in his career, you can put him down for another top 10 fantasy season.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

A lot of pressure was placed on Santana Moss last year, and he responded. The third-year receiver was expected to fill the shoes of departed 1200 yard receiver Laveranues Coles while re-acclimating to backup QB Vinny Testaverde when starter Chad Pennington was lost for half the season. He responded with a classic third-year wide receiver breakout. For fantasy owners that drafted him late as a WR 3/4, he was practically a season-maker.

In 2003, Moss put together the magical formula of talent and opportunity equating to fantasy production. Moss is a former first round pick with speed and moves oozing from every pore. Just ask anyone who watched him at the University of Miami. Last year was a mere taste of what Moss can bring. He is putting into reality what folks thought Peter Warrick would bring - a man who is nearly untouchable in the open field.

As for opportunity, he was targeted 117 times in 2003 and caught over 63% of the passes that came his way. With Wayne Chrebet ailing, FA acquisition Curtis Conway disappointing, and no other really viable options in the receiving corps, he was the #1 receiving target on most pass plays. During the last four games of 2003, he was targeted the most he had been targeted in any stretch all year: 11, 10, 10, and 8 times. Unfortunately, he failed to score a TD or get more than 70 yards any of those weeks.

Over the entire year, he received the lowest number of targets/game for any of the top-15 WRs. His targets/game hovered around numbers similar to the guys in the WR 20 to 24 range, and were bumped by that late season target outburst. It worries me a bit that he was unable to do more, or even as much as he had done before, when given more opportunities later in the year.

Nevertheless, Moss' outlook for 2004 is good. Assuming, of course, Moss gets to work with a healthy Pennington for 16 games. Moss had a strong game or two in the first half of the year, but he really tore it up when Pennington returned - for games 8 through 12, Moss averaged over 17 FF points per game. He also has a more vibrant receiver opposite him in new acquisition Justin McCareins. McCareins will not steal passes from Moss as often as he frees Moss from double coverage. Finally, Moss had an impressive 14.93 YPR - a high YPR along with a nice number of catches generally bodes well for a receiver the following year.

On the down side, I have a tendency to avoid risking a lot on receivers who were able to create more production on fewer opportunities than their peers. Moss was in lofty company in 2003 for fantasy production, but in WR20 range in terms of targets. If you believe he will see more targets than he did in 2003, draft him with confidence. I personally believe there is a fair amount of risk in grabbing for Moss as you must generally spend an early round pick on him and you must draft him as your WR1.

Last, there is the pressure of "show me again." For analogy, we saw Plaxico Burress blossom in year 3 only to implode in year 4. And, the declining production late in the year on more targets really scares me if you work off an assumption that opposing defenses started figuring out how to defend Moss. Pennington gives you the read, but he won't pass to you if you are not open. That is what makes Pennington so efficient - he takes what's there without forcing the ball to the receiver. Unlike the situations with Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, or Torry Holt, Santana Moss probably will not see the ball come his way if he is not clearly open.

Positives

• Talent out of every pore - the kid can go house and make defenders look silly every time he touches the ball
• Opportunity - there is almost no competition for the ball as Chrebet is yet another year older, Conway is gone, and McCareins has some ropes to learn
• Production - Moss had a nose for the end zone last year, and he demonstrated the ability to put forth a string of explosive games

Negatives

• Pennington likes to spread the ball around - he is efficient because he doesn't lock on any one receiver
• Declining production over the last half of the year and no TDs in the last 4 games despite receiving the most targets during that stretch is a concern- did defenses learn to defend him?
• The pressure of doing it a second time may cause him not to be able to repeat the production

Final Thoughts

Santana Moss is a good bet to again be worth a starting fantasy WR spot on your roster. The question is whether he is worth a top-10 WR selection. That is the price you will have to pay to get him as he is going pretty high in most drafts. It is a simple gut check - do you believe Santana Moss will see more than the 117 targets he saw last year and, if so, do you believe he will see enough targets to match his production from 2003? I see a slight regression as he sees more targets, but not so many that the "more on less" phenomenon will be completely overcome. I am also not likely to feel particularly comfortable with him as the first WR on my team, unless I grab another WR or two pretty quickly thereafter to make a nice pool of starters. My clearest feeling on him is that I do not believe Moss will return to the top-10 for receivers in 2004, but I also do not think he will fall so far out of it that he will not be worth a weekly fantasy start. Oh, and in keeper/dynasty leagues, he is an early round BUY if you can get him as he has a brilliant future ahead of him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

fightingillini:
"A lot of Santana Moss' success will hinge on the play of Justin McCareins. If McCareins can take pressure off of Moss....Moss will have a good year. But I do see a lot of double teams this year, and we will see if Moss can respond. Take away the deep ball from him and he becomes somewhat of an ordinary receiver."

gman8342:
"I'm high on "The Other Moss" this season. I love his speed and ability to separate from defenders. He's not tall but he's shifty enough and can make the tough grab in the open field. With a full season with Pennington slinging the rock and McCareins opposite him, Santana is going to have some dazzling highlights on NFL Primetime."

Tony the Tiger:
"Pennington has always milked his #1 receiver.

Whether it was Randy in College (for good reason), Coles when he first became an NFL starter or Santana last year, the #1 receiver in a Pennington led offense will get a good amount of touches. I think that Justin McCareins will take a lot of pressure off Moss and will be able to become Pennington's go-to guy in shorter situation. Justin, in the long run, will be a great outlet and may even become Chad's #1 option, but for 2004, I see Moss as the #1 guy."

Spartans Rule:
"I don't really have a strong feeling about Santana Moss one way or the other. But I do have a strong feeling about Chad Pennington. His 2002 numbers were simply unbelievable, and aside from that awful game against the Pats his 2003 numbers were pretty nice as well. I really feel he's going to be an elite QB in the NFL, and that with him under center the Jets are going to become an offensive juggernaut.

As the #1 weapon on the Jets, Moss can't help but be productive."

joffer:
"There's no reason to think that Moss should regress from last year. If anything McCareins should help the Jets offense, overall. Pennington is one of the best young QBs in the game and Moss is his #1 target."

Santana Moss Projections