Jason Wood's Thoughts

In three years as a full time starter, Shaun Alexander has been THE model of consistency:

• 2001 - 1,661 total yards, 16 TDs, 262 fantasy points (4th ranked RB)


• 2002 - 1,625 total yards, 18 TDs, 271 fantasy points (5th ranked RB)


• 2003 - 1,730 total yards, 16 TDs, 269 fantasy points (6th ranked RB)

Yet, it seems that Alexander is always an afterthought in discussions of the true fantasy elite. This year is no exception; most rankings (including our own) put Alexander behind Priest Holmes, Ahman Green, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis and Deuce McAllister. To be clear, all of these backs deserve the accolades and could easily be the top fantasy producer this season, but why doesn't anyone consider Alexander as part of that camp? Of all the "can't miss" running backs, Alexander would seemingly have the fewest question marks, would he not?

• Priest Holmes - On the wrong side of 30, contemplated retirement, and one year removed from a hip injury


• LaDainian Tomlinson - The lone focal point of his team's offense; opposing defenses will key on him every single play


• Ahman Green - Green is older and has taken more punishment


• Deuce McAllister - McAllister only scored 8 touchdowns last year


• Clinton Portis - Traded to the Redskins, can he be the same away from the confines of Shanahan's cut blocking scheme?

If you think I'm being nitpicky with the above risk factors; I don't disagree. But this was meant to illustrate the point that almost any fantasy player regardless of how good carries some risk and uncertainty. All of these backs are consistently being drafted ahead of Alexander, yet carry more uncertainty.

1. Supporting Offensive Cast - The Seahawks return the same offensive cast of characters that finished 5th last season. With the same QB, WR trio, RB and offensive line, expect little to change; a good thing when you're as productive as the Seahawks



2. Coaching Staff - Mike Holmgren returns and the team will utilize the same tried and true West Coast offense we've come to know and love



3. Offensive Line - The Seahawks have one of the league's best offensive lines. Walter Jones is a holdout, but that shouldn't be a major issue considering this marks the 3rd straight season he's held out of camp in a minor protest to being franchised



4. Age and Health - Alexander is a year older (obviously) but at only 27 years old (on August 30th) and with three years as a full time starter, there is plenty of tread left on his tires. Additionally, Alexander has been a picture of health, never missing a game in 3 years as the full time runner (note: he missed a part of one game last year due to the birth of his child)

Positives

• 1,600+ yards and 16+ TDs in each of three seasons; as consistently productive as it gets



• The balance of the offense ensures that Alexander rarely faces 8 men in the box



• The offensive line (provided Walter Jones reports before the season opener) is among the league's best

Negatives

• Holmgren has always favored throwing in the red zone more than most coaches; a minor complaint when you consider Alexander's TD totals



• Alexander is an adequate receiver, but doesn't get the opportunities to make plays in the passing game the way other elite backs do

Final Thoughts

It's difficult to speak of value in the first round. After all, every fantasy draft comes down to taking a slew of running backs in order of preference in the early rounds, and if you've got a top 5 or 6 pick, you're going RB 99 times out of 100. With that in mind, I believe Shaun Alexander is compelling because he seems to be the odd man out among the "can't miss" guys. There's a much better chance that you can find Alexander waiting for you midway through round one than Holmes, Tomlinson, Green, Portis or McAllister. With that in mind, he could be one of the year's best picks if he plays up to that level (i.e. top 5) for teams that have the higher pick in round 2 (presumably getting the better starting tandem than the owners who draft Tomlinson and Holmes).

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Hyped rookie. Took over the starting role due to injury. Was the # 4 fantasy running back in most scoring systems in 2001, was the # 5 back in 2002, and was the # 6 back in 2003. OK, Shaun Alexander is a good fantasy running back. People have tried punching holes in his game - thinking he is inconsistent, or HC Mike Holmgren is upset with him, or hyped speedster Maurice Morris is going to steal some touches. Well, here's the news - no one is going to displace Shaun Alexander from fantasy elite barring injury. He is the focal point of the Seattle running game and, actually, the linchpin of the offense. QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Darrell Jackson, and WR Koren Robinson are certainly a passing force, but having a good complementary passing game did not hurt Marshall Faulk in 1999 - 2001, did not hurt Edgerrin James in 2000, did not hurt Clinton Portis in 2002, and won't hurt Shaun Alexander in 2003.

The kid scores touchdowns, catches over 40 passes a year, and rushes 300 to 320 times at a career 4.2 YPC. That is the definition of a workhorse back. While he won't blow you away with 65 yard TD runs, he might get you more than one short plunge into the end zone to go along with the combined 110 yards he generally gathers each and every game. If you can count on 15 or 16 points every single week from your RB1, wouldn't you want that? Oh, and by the way, he has yet to miss a game since he entered the league (though he was late to one last year).

This kid is a top-6, or top-7 selection under almost any scoring format, and he should be near the top of your lists in dynasty and keeper leagues. If you greatly value consistency and reliability from your first round pick, I recommend you elevate him to top-5 territory. I can't say enough about him. Expect his annual averages or better this year as he is entering his prime as an athlete. Unless a devastating injury hits Alexander, he should be the cornerstone to your fantasy squad - your rock - and a first half of the first round selection in any draft in which he is available - from 8 teams redrafts to 16 team dynasty leagues. He's simply one of the 10 most coveted fantasy players playing the game and should be for the next couple of years.

Let me leave you with this quote:

"Shaun has worked hard," RB coach Stump Mitchell said. "He's looking good. He's catching the ball better. He's giving good effort when it comes to pass blocking. Anything less than 1,700 yards, 60 receptions and well over 20 touchdowns, and we're not doing the things we need to do."

That's really all you need to hear.

Positives

• Young, athletic, workhorse back who is the focal point of the offense and heading into his prime as an athlete



• Plays on a potent offense in a weak defensive division in the AFC West - high scoring games should be the norm, which mean more opportunities for Alexander to rack up fantasy numbers



• Consistent scorer who gives you week-in, week-out numbers, and almost never misses time due to injury.

Negatives

• Is not that explosive running back who can carry your squad single-handedly



• As a top-6 pick, you are paying a heavy price for a guy who will likely finish worth his draft spot, but doesn't have the #1 overall fantasy back potential that other backs drafted near him possess



• Has done a lot of his fantasy damage through TDs, and not through a tremendous amount of yardage. He reached his career high in annual carries last year with 326. Of course, that means he should have plenty in the tank if the team decides to run him 350 times

Final Thoughts

You are paying a high price for Shaun Alexander by landing him as the # 6 or #7 overall selection in a redraft, but you are probably making the safest pick in the entire draft. Barring a season ending injury, you have a solid week in and week out RB1 - now build your team. To win your league, in my opinion, you need some "crushers." You will need to construct some explosiveness around Alexander to win your league. That means your RB2 should have upside or your WRs should be of the explosive variety, or you should focus on getting one of the elite QBs. Somewhere during your draft, if you take Alexander, you need to think about building your value numbers versus the guys who also took topflight RBs. While Alexander is a solid, desirable RB1, he is unlikely to outshine a lot of the other elite RBs, which means you have to have your other guys beat their other guys. Don't pass on Alexander unless you are in the top-5, just plan on building upside around him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

hydroxybear:
"Everyone will point to the fact that its a contract year for him, but I'm just going to point to the past 3 years where he has had at least 16 td's in each season. That's just the consistency I'm looking for in a first rounder"

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"Shaun Alexander is quietly putting together an excellent professional career. He's playing for a well balanced offensive team who's going to be competing for the playoffs and Alexander will be one of the guys to get them there."

Synthesizer:
"When I watch Shaun Alexander play, I just don't see any of the special attributes that the great RBs have. He doesn't have great vision, he doesn't have a burst through the hole, he doesn't have the ability to make people miss, and he doesn't have great hands. Plus his coach has questioned his desire to improve. You would hope that if your RB is touching the ball almost 25 times per game, he could average more than 100 total yards a game. But that's all you (and the Seahawks) are going to get out of him."

Shaun Alexander Projections