Jason Wood's Thoughts

Stephen Davis was summarily discounted to too many people last year. Cast aside by the Redskins regime as a poor fit for Steve Spurrier's offense, Davis figured to be a hot commodity in free agency; yet he found surprisingly few takers and signed for what most considered a below market contract with the upstart Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers were rewarded with Davis' 3rd 1,400+ yard rushing season as he anchored the team's improbable run to the Super Bowl. Proving his critics wrong, Davis showed the same powerful burst and ability to make yards after contact that was his hallmark during his 1999-2001 run in Washington where he topped 1,300 yards rushing every season and scored 33 touchdowns.

The signing of Davis last year signaled to many an admission by Panthers brass that DeShaun Foster wasn't going to justify the team's 2nd round draft choice in 2002. Foster came into the league with a ton of natural ability, but also a reputation for taking plays off and being prone to injury. That reputation proved too true as a knee injury sidelined Foster his rookie season. Unfortunately for Foster, he didn't have much of an opportunity to prove his critics wrong last year; and when he did it's unclear that the talent to be an impact NFL player was evident. Foster had 10+ carries in only five games last year; in those games he amassed:

• 86 carries



• 306 yards rushing



• 3.6 yards per carry



• 114 yards receiving



• 1 touchdown

Simply put, I thought DeShaun Foster would be a solid pro coming out of college; but he hasn't given me much reason to think my initial assessment was on the money. Last year, behind a very strong offensive line, Foster couldn't hold a candle to what Davis accomplished. Yes, Foster brings a different skill set (he's a better receiver to be sure) but nevertheless, averaging 3.6 yards per carry when Davis averaged 4.5 behind the same line tells you that they're not on equal footing talent wise.

With that as a backdrop, I'm going to go on record as saying that, barring injury to Stephen Davis, he will once again be the major workhorse of the Panthers offense regardless of any coach speak to the contrary. And here are some reasons why I'm confident in that assessment:

1. Stephen Davis requires 20+ carries to be most productive; in games Davis had at least 20 carries - 4.63 yards per carry & 0.7 TDs per game; in games Davis has less than 20 carries - 4.02 yards per carry & 0.25 TDs per game



2. Davis was demonstrably more productive than Foster last season; Davis averaged 4.5 yards per carry to Foster's 3.8



3. Foster has been working on kickoff return duty; something you wouldn't see if he were expected to be a heavy contributor on offense



4. OC Dan Henning refers to Foster as a "scat back"; from a recent story on Foxsports.com - "If we are trying to run the ball and set up the play-action pass, Stephen is the guy," offensive coordinator Dan Henning said. "When we want to open things up and use a guy more as a scat back, then DeShaun is the guy."



5. Foster is content to be the backup; from the same article cited above - "I feel like I am being groomed right now," Foster said. "And when I get a shot, I'm going to take it. But right now it is Stephen's job to carry the load. I'm fine with that."

Looking beyond the RB comparison; the offensive line is a question mark

Putting aside the comparison and relative workload of the two backs for a moment; we need to assess the outlook for the team's running attack as a whole. The Panthers ground game is essential to what they do; perhaps more so than any other team because of the use of play action. Without an effective rushing attack, the team doesn't have the luxury of getting single coverage downfield as the safeties bite on the fake handoffs.

So while it's clear that regardless of Jake Delhomme's heroics last season or the presence of WR Steve Smith, this is a team that needs and wants to run the ball 500 times a year. But whether or not the team can be as productive in 2004 as they were in last year's dream season comes down to the strength of the offensive line.

The offensive line has undergone a complete overhaul this offseason; which is rarely a good thing for a team coming off a Super Bowl run. The only returning starter to man the same position is C Jeff Mitchell, and Jordan Gross the promising young tackle moves from right to left this year. But the team lost Jeno James in free agency, Kevin Donnalley to retirement and Todd Steussie was tendered his release. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, T Adam Meadows, brought in to replace Gross at right tackle (since Gross is moving to the left side) retired due to ongoing shoulder pain. That leaves the Panthers offensive line with ENORMOUS question marks at left guard, right guard and right tackle.

It would be silly to assume this season's offensive line will perform as well as the 2003 version. All the change combined with an apparent drop off in talent and, of course, a more difficult schedule equate to a more difficult time for the team's running game; and that should play into your projections for both Davis and Foster. I believe Davis is too talented to fall apart behind this line, but I wouldn't expect him to match last year's 4.5 YPC.

What about injuries?

When Stephen Davis plays, you know what to expect. Power running, a ton of carries, a good shot at 100+ rushing yards, and a very real threat to score near the goal line. The only things you don't get with Davis are receiving stats and, more worrisome, reliability over the course of a full season. When Davis plays, he's studly. But, it's a fair bet he'll miss a game or two given his history; Davis has missed time in six of 8 seasons. He played in 14 regular season games last year, missing Weeks 10 and 16 completely, while being limited in several other games. He also didn't play in the Panthers playoff victory over the Cowboys. Suffice to say that Davis (and Foster for that matter) are not locks to play every down; Davis in particular appears to wear down as the season progresses, especially troublesome for fantasy owners who need their players at the peak late in the regular season (i.e., fantasy playoff time).

Positives for Davis

• Coming off his 3rd 1,400+ yard rushing season; a lock for quite a few 100+ yard rushing games this season



• Powerful inside runner able to move the pile, and a very good goal line back



• The Panthers are committed to running the ball and Davis is their feature runner

Negatives for Davis

• Davis has missed time in six of eight NFL seasons



• He's limited as a receiver, catching only 14 balls last season (1 per game)



• The Panthers offensive line looks suspect relative to last season

Positives for Foster

• Foster is a better receiver, and a faster back than Davis, meaning he should at worst have a role as a change-of-pace player



• Given Davis' age, workload and propensity for missing a few games a year, Foster could be in line for a few very strong outings as the feature back



• Foster has impressed the coaching staff and is being worked into the offensive mix versus a year ago when they viewed his contributions as a "bonus"

Negatives for Foster

• Foster averaged 3.8 yards per carry to Davis' 4.5; and was even less effective when given 10+ carries (3.6 YPC in those games)



• The coaches and Davis and Foster all seem resigned to his playing a backup role again in 2004



• The offensive line looks suspect relative to last season

Final Thoughts

Stephen Davis should be ready to play another season of smash mouth football. When he's in the lineup, the Panthers will surely give him the ball 20+ times a game and count on his controlling the clock, racking up 100+ yards on the ground, and allowing the team to throw off play action. As long as you recognize that he's probably not going to play all 16 games; Davis is worth considering as your RB2 if you're drafting late in the 2nd round. The state of the Panthers offensive line is cause for concern, as is Davis' lack of receiving production; both of which I think combine to limit Davis' chances of surprising on the upside. However, in the late 2nd/early 3rd round there aren't many other options if you're looking for someone who you can count on for 1,200+ rushing yards and 7+ touchdowns. DeShaun Foster, playoff success aside, did much less than Davis behind the same line and is an even bigger injury risk. I see no reason to waste a 7th round pick (Fosters' average draft position currently) on him; that's too high a pick to use as a handcuff for Davis; and assumes Foster could be as productive as Davis if given the chance. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

One of the biggest questions over this offseason has been how the Panthers will use their tandem of Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster this year. Talk on the street reached a fevered pitch when The Sporting News reported that the team intended on splitting carries for these two evenly this year.

I, for one, am not buying it. I still see Davis being the featured back and Foster being the understudy, perhaps surfacing a little more than last year but predominantly taking a back seat to Davis. Davis excelled last year, his first in Carolina, and was a key reason the team reached the Super Bowl.

This is not to say that Foster is not talented, but until Davis slows down and becomes a lot less productive, the starting job is Davis' to lose.

Davis averaged 103 yards rushing per game with a 4.5 ypc. Even missing two games, he wound up with 1,444 yards and 8 TD to rank as fantasy's #12 RB on the season.

One of the biggest concerns for Davis is the notion that he gets banged up and misses significant time due to injury. He's missed 9 games over the past 5 seasons, which is actually slightly better than average. (The average time missed by a starting NFL RB is just over 2 games per year.)

Davis has had some problems wearing down and becoming less productive over the course of a season. Here are his stats in four game intervals from the last 5 years:

• 1st 4 games: 20 games, 414-1862-17 (347 receiving yards)



• 2nd 4 games: 19 games, 400-1855-13 (240 receiving yards)



• 3rd 4 games: 17 games, 400-1491-12 (201 receiving yards)



• Last 4 games: 15 games, 289-1211-7 (162 receiving yards)

The numbers certainly support Davis' production slipping as the season progressed, and that can't be considered a good thing for fantasy teams in their playoffs. That's were Foster started to evolve last year.

Foster's career got off to a slow start, missing his entire rookie season due to injury. Last year, he filled in when Davis couldn't go, and by the end of the year some people felt he was the go-to back and Davis was so banged up that he was the backup. For the regular season, Foster only had a 3.8 ypc, compiling 113-429-0 on the ground and 26-207-2 receiving. But he added 42-196-2 (4.7 ypc) and 5-35-0 in the post season.

Davis still gave it his best shot in the post season and still posted a 4.9 ypc with 64-315-1 rushing and a 2-23-0 receiving. Even banged up, Davis still had a higher ypc than Foster did.

Positives for Davis

• Power back that has had three seasons with over 1,400 yards rushing and ranked as a RB1 four times (12-team leagues)



• Had a 4.6 ypc in 2003 (regular and post season) with 1,759 rushing yards over the entire NFL season



• Davis still has several years left on his contract and is due only $2 million in salary for this year

Negatives for Davis

• Carries the injury prone label and is now 30, not the best combination for a starting RB



• His production normally decreases as the season progresses



• May not be a dependable back come fantasy playoff time with a history of late season injuries

Positives for Foster

• Showed he could foster the load and take on a lot more carries when Davis couldn't go last year



• Played better as the season progressed and excelled in the playoffs and Super Bowl



• Should have a chance to get more playing time, a bigger role in the offense, and more touches

Negatives for Foster

• Should again be the backup to Davis and can only hope for a bigger piece of the workload



• Had a 4.0 ypc on the entire season including post season vs. 4.6 ypc for Davis



• Had 242 receiving yards in 20 games compared to 182 for Davis in a lot less playing time

Final Thoughts

The problem with these two running backs is that Davis will be the more valuable pick but Foster might be the one that gets more carries by the fantasy playoffs if Davis misses a start or two at the end of the year again.

The Panthers had about 2,000 yards rushing from their RB last year. Davis and Foster should total around 1,800 rushing yards this year, and the big question is how that is divided. Foster should also get more receiving yards than Davis, as his role may involve more playing time on third down this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

KKrew:
"The Panthers played in the Super Bowl so the exploits of Delhomme, Davis, Foster and Smith won't surprise anyone in 2004. If anything, Panther prognostications will probably have a 'super' padding. John Fox & Company ran the ball 522 times on their way to Houston for Super Sunday. I see Fox doing about the same in 2004. Davis still has legs so he'll get the lion's share. But, Foster will get his touches, especially in passing situations."

Pigskin Fanatic:
"What a luxury it was to have Stephen Davis on my roster last year. I also see more of the same for this year, but I am concerned about Foster taking much more away from him. Regardless of the reasons for it, Foster will have more impact. Between the two they combined for 431 rushes, 1,873 yards, and 10 TDs"

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"As much talk as Davis and Foster are getting, they're O-line is not. They've lost a couple of players from last year's starting unit and are asking those guys to come in and gel so that the Panthers can be able to run the ball.

Overall, I don't think Carolina will be as effective, especially early on in the season running the football. I see Davis getting a lot of tough carries during the 1st half of the season and wearing down. Towards the end of the season, I think you'll see Davis getting about 60-65 percent of the carries and Foster up to around 35-40 percent."

Stephen Davis Projections

DeShaun Foster Projections