Spotlight - QB Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans
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Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Jason Wood's Thoughts
In winning the MVP award last year, the rest of the world learned what the
fantasy community already knew; Steve McNair is one of the best signal callers
in the NFL.
The only issue I have with McNair is his litany of injuries. As much as McNair
gains the respect and admiration of the football community for playing in pain
every week, his constant residence on the Questionable portion of the injury
report makes for some never racking "will he or won't he" moments
before kick off. Presumably McNair has to have a relatively healthy season at
some point, right? Again, it's a minor issue in the grand scheme of things but
it IS enough of a concern for me to bump him down a tad; what I usually do is
project him over a 16-game season and then discount that by a game or two; setting
the bar at an acceptable risk/reward level.
That aside, McNair is a "once and future" fantasy starter in any
scoring system - finishing in the top 10 five of the last seven seasons, which
includes a 5th place showing last year. What's remarkable is how much McNair's
game has changed over the years. In 1997, McNair had his breakout season finishing
6th among fantasy QBs
yet he completed just 52% of his passes, threw 14
TDs to 13 INTs, and only passed for 2,665 yards. But he completely offset his
mediocre passing totals with 101 rushes for 674 yards and 8 touchdowns on the
ground. Last season, finishing 5th, McNair completed 63% of his passes for 3,215
yards, 24 TDs to only 7 INTs and only rushed for 138 yards and 4 touchdowns.
It's like night and day but fantasy owners could care less how players get their
fantasy points, as long as they get them.
There have been a few changes in the Titans offensive makeup this year, most
notably the departure of Eddie George. But rest assured that as long as Air
McNair is in the lineup and OC Mike Heimgerdinger is calling plays; the changes
won't have a major impact on the team's fantasy prospects.
Changes to the receiving corps
Justin McCareins, the team's second leading receiver in 2003, now plays for
the New York Jets. But the team still has considerable depth at receiver beyond
Derrick Mason. Drew Bennett will step into the starting lineup and brings virtually
the same skill set as McCareins. Tyrone Calico will assume the 3rd spot; and
his showing in this year's training camp is like night and day versus last year's
inconsistent and immature performance. Rounding out the receiving corps are
Jake Schifino and Eddie Berlin; who will both see action as OC Mike Heimerdinger
isn't afraid to use 4-WR sets. At the tight end position, the Titans are three
deep despite the retirement of Frank Wycheck. Two University of Florida products,
Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe, will form part of a three headed monster with Shad
Meier. All three will factor into the receiving game.
Changing of the guard at running back, will it help or hurt?
The most interesting question in my mind is how Chris Brown's emergence as
the Titans new lead RB will impact McNair and the passing game. Eddie George
gave his heart and soul to the Titans franchise for a lot of years, but you
can't ignore the fact that he was horribly ineffective last year; averaging
3.3 yards per carry and having the worst goalline conversion rate in the entire
league. For those who fear that Brown's emergence will mean a shift back to
the run heavy offense of years past, consider that the Titans were 23rd in passing
attempts last year and 9th in rushing attempts. It's not that the team became
less reliant on the run, it's that with Eddie getting 3 yards and a cloud of
dust, the marginal utility of each rush was diminished. I would expect the team
to maintain a similar run/pass ratio; but hopefully for McNair and all concerned,
Brown will be more productive per carry and that will result in more first downs,
fewer long 3rd downs, and better field position.
Positives
- McNair has become one of the league's best pure passers; he completed 63%
of his passes last year for an amazing 8.0 yards per attempt
- Despite the loss of WR McCareins, the Titans have a deep WR and TE corps
and will maintain an aggressive and balanced passing attack
- RB Chris Brown should improve the running game; giving the team better field
position, sustaining drives and reducing the 3rd and long situations
Negatives
- McNair has applied for permanent residency on the Injured List
- The team is never going to throw enough for McNair to put up 4,000 plus
yards and/or 30+ TDs
- McNair, a gifted runner, had a major drop off in that department last year;
if that's a trend he'll be a less enticing fantasy QB1 going forward
Final Thoughts
McNair is among the league's best quarterbacks and what's remarkable is how
his game has evolved through the years. He was once a jack-of-all trades, master
of none but did enough between his rushing totals and his passing numbers to
justify a spot in your lineup. But as Eddie George began to hit the wall, and
Mike Heimerdinger came aboard as coordinator, McNair was given the green light
to become a more productive passer; which culminated in last season's MVP performance.
If you're someone who likes to wait until the 6th or 7th round before drafting
your first quarterback, McNair is likely going to be one of the best available.
Chase Stuart's Thoughts:
Steve McNair has long been under appreciated as a fantasy weapon. Let's stroll
back through time:
- In 1997, he was the fifth best fantasy QB
- In 1998, he was the fourth best fantasy QB
- In 1999, he played eleven games-and ranked as the third best QB in FP/G
- In 2000, he had perhaps his best year to date throwing the ball, but inexplicably
had a goose egg in the rushing touchdowns column. He ranked just fifteenth
- In 2001, McNair was back. He missed a single game, ranked as the fourth
best QB in FP/G, seventh best overall. He averaged more FP/G than the third
best QB, Peyton Manning
- In 2002, he ranked as the eighth best QB
- In 2003, he missed two games and ranked third in FP/G
An interesting three-year comparison: Peyton Manning has averaged 20.3 FP/G,
while McNair has averaged 20.1 FP/G. Over that stretch, McNair has missed an
average of one game per year. Based on historical results, it seems silly for
Manning to be drafted at 3.01, and McNair to fall to 5.04. Basically, whenever
McNair is healthy, he's a top eight QB-and usually a top five quarterback.
I always think McNair is undervalued, and this year is no exception. While
losing Eddie George, Frank Wycheck and Justin McCareins sounds bad to the novice
FF player, I don't think it will hurt McNair at all. The loss of George can
go three ways for McNair. It could force him to pass more (good thing), force
him to pass less if Chris Brown is a superstar in the making (bad thing, but
unlikely), or finally make defenses respect the run more, and improve McNair's
yards per attempt (good-and likely, thing). The loss of McCareins was something
Tennessee chose to do. They wanted to see more out of Drew Bennett and Tyrone
Calico. Frank Wycheck was no longer a star TE, and Erron Kinney is a great fantasy
sleeper this year.
The days of three yards of Eddie and a cloud of dust are gone for the Titans.
McNair's the star of the team, and he will top twenty passing TDs for the fourth
straight season.
Positives
- McNair rushed for just 138 yards last year, well below his career average.
From 1997-2002, his sixteen game seasonal average was 505 rushing yards. McNair
saw his rushing yards fall due to an ankle injury, but he's once again 100
percent
- Set a career high in yards per attempt last year, and should see even more
passes with Eddie George gone to Dallas. Chris Brown brings more to the receiving
game as well
- Derrick Mason, Erron Kinney, Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico may not be household
names, but they all fill key roles. They're a very strong supporting cast,
and have been together for a few years now
Negatives
- McNair has always counted on his rushing stats to make him a fantasy stud.
If last year's 138 yard season was not a fluke, he's going to have to continue
to post high passing numbers to be a top five QB
- McNair is tough as nails, but gets hurt a lot. He appears on the injury
list almost every week. He missed two games last year, and now turns 31
- The loss of Justin McCareins may hurt Tennessee a bit. His 813 yards and
seven touchdowns were an important part of the Titans offense
Final Thoughts
Air McNair has finally lived up to that moniker, as he's become more of a passing
QB the past few seasons. Tennessee has changed from a Super Bowl contender that
in 2001 ran the ball over 34 times a game, into a pass-first offense led by
the Co-MVP of the league. He's in the same tier as Trent Green, Matt Hasselbeck
and Marc Bulger in my eyes. I think McNair has the potential for the most points
if he can go back to his glory days of rushing for 500 yards and five TDs, but
I find that unlikely. Still, don't be disappointed to grab McNair as your QB1,
and see him finish the season in the top eight once again. With a little luck,
he can easily be a top three QB.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here.
KKrew:
"Air McNair was hardly that for the first 6 years of his career. In
that time McNair never topped 20 passing TDs. However, from 2001 on, he's consistently
been over 20 passing TDs, averaging 22 a season. Plus, Ground McNair has had
a knack for finding the end zone. The "Titanic Tosser" has averaged
4 rushing TDs a season for his career."
joffer:
"Obviously, his durability is a concern as he missed two games last
year, and is often victim to Jeff Fisher's "everyone is questionable"
list on the injury report. While his rushing stats have declined the last few
years, his passing numbers have increased, mainly due I think to Tennessee's
ineffectiveness at running the ball. You could argue that if Chris Brown breaks
out this year, McNair may not throw the ball as much. I'm of the opinion that
Brown may have a good year, but he's not going to remind anyone of Eddie George
circa 2000."
waylander:
"If Chris Brown can do better than Eddie George's 3.3 ypc then defenses
will have to play honestly, instead of stacking up against the run allowing
[McNair] to go down the field further."
Steve McNair Projections
Source |
PassYds
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TDs
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INTs
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RushYds
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TDs
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FntPts
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Jason Wood |
3415
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23
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13
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240
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4
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298
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Chase Stuart |
3600
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22
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11
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250
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5
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312
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Message Board Consensus |
3490
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25
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12
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245
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4
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311
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