Jason Wood's Thoughts

As an Eagles season ticket holder and devout fan, it's still difficult for me to grasp the reality that Terrell Owens, one of the league's best receivers, is now bleeding Eagle Green. My incredulity isn't born out of the soap opera of this offseason (SF to BAL to PHI!?!?) as much as the fact that prior to this move, HC Andy Reid had insisted that our motley collection of substandard receivers was good enough to win a Super Bowl. Yet, after losing a third straight NFC Championship Game, it became apparent that change was necessary.

From 1998-2002, Terrell Owens was as potent an offensive force as there was in the league, finishing among the top 3 at his position four of five seasons (1999 was injury riddled). Last year, amid chaos and turmoil in San Francisco, Owens had what most considered a subpar year, finishing 12th among fantasy wideouts. Just to reiterate how good a player Owens is, his "subpar" season equated to 80 receptions, 1,102 yards and 9 touchdowns.

So at 30 years old, changing teams and coming off his worst season in five years, warning signs should be sounding all over, right? Not this time, in my opinion. Let's be clear about something, the GENERAL rule of thumb is that WRs who change teams do not fare as well the following season. That is indisputable. However, every situation is unique, and there are exceptions to every rule. Laveranues Coles put up consecutive 1,200-yard seasons despite moving from the Jets to the Redskins. Certainly this is a rare occurrence, but the savvy fantasy owner will recognize that Terrell Owens is just as likely, if not more likely, to be an exception to the rule.

Look back at the annals of NFL history and ask yourself how many times a WR of Owens' caliber changed teams while still in his prime? You would be hard pressed to come up with more than a handful of examples, and none would be as accomplished as Owens (15th all time in touchdowns, 36th all time in receptions).

Combine Owens talent level, which is transcendent, with the fact that he's MOTIVATED. Yes, in an ideal world every millionaire athlete would be motivated every single down of every single game. But the reality is far different. Owens admitted to being distracted and unmotivated last year playing for a team in decline with questionable ownership and a new head coach. Is that admirable, certainly not, but believable? Absolutely. Add to all this the fact that the Eagles' offensive system is extremely similar to the WCO run in San Francisco, and Owens' new situation is anything but typical.

Owens wanted nothing else but to play in Philadelphia, with Donovan McNabb, and he got his wish. As importantly, he also got a hefty contract extension that again places him among the highest paid at his position. And Philadelphia enters 2004 as one of the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. You will see the best from Owens this season; mark it down.

Positives

• Owens leads all NFL WRs in yards-after-the-catch (YAC) over the last five years
• One of the most prolific scoring WRs in league history
• Is motivated and playing in his self described ideal situation

Negatives

• WRs changing teams generally struggle in their first year; although there are exceptions, the overall trend is undeniable
• Owens has a propensity to drop a handful of balls each season
• The Eagles offense has historically been balanced, what happens if Owens doesn't get the ball enough to satisfy him early on?

Final Thoughts

As I already noted, I'm an Eagles fan. So it would be disingenuous of me to suggest I don't want Owens to dominate this year, proving his critics wrong. But that said, I also believe it WILL happen; as I see it, the only reason Owens didn't dominate last season was a lack of motivation; not a problem in 2004 (2005 and beyond is another story). Owens is by far the best receiver Donovan McNabb has ever had to throw to, and there will be no shortage of passes thrown his way game in, game out. Additionally, Andy Reid has always crafted excellent red zone offenses, and Owens is arguably the best red zone threat at the position. If you're in the market for a top six WR, Owens has to factor into the equation. I could understand a case to be made for five receivers being taken ahead of Owens (Moss, Harrison, Holt, Johnson, and Ward) but beyond that, anyone who passes up Owens will rue the day as the season progresses. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Terrell Owens and Clinton Portis are probably the two most debated players of the 2004 preseason. Both have been dominant players and have switched teams, thus fueling debate as to whether they will maintain their elite performance levels. As I see it, there are four key areas to review in accurately predicting Owens' statistics for the coming season:

1. Owens' skills and past performance
2. Philadelphia's system and its impact on WRs
3. Donovan McNabb's passing abilities, and
4. Historical trends of stud WR switching teams

On a pure talent level, Terrell Owens has to be one of the most gifted players in the game. From 2000 to 2002, Owens AVERAGED 97 receptions, 1,388 receiving yards, 14 TDs, and 228 fantasy points per season. On a per game basis, Owens was the #1 WR in those 3 seasons with 15.6 PPG (Harrison 14.8, Moss 12.7). His annual year-end rankings were 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd.

In Owens 7 years as a starter in San Francisco, the team ranked on average:

• SF offense (1997 - 2003): 13th in passing attempts, 13th in passing yardage, and 10th in TD receptions.

Now Owens takes his brashness and bravado to Philadelphia. Here are the team numbers under Coach Andy Reid:

• Phi offense (1999 - 2003): 20th in passing attempts, 21st in passing yardage, 15th in TD receptions.

In that time, the best season for an Eagles WR was by James Thrash: 63 receptions, 833 receiving yards, 8 TDs, 137 fantasy points, and an end of year ranking of 24th. Basically, the BEST season by an Eagles WR was 40% worse than the AVERAGE season Owens had in SF in 2000 - 2002.

That could be attributed, in part, to Philadelphia never having a go-to receiver or true #1, as many feel that the talent level in their WR corps should be considered below average. However, Freddie Mitchell and Charles Johnson were both first round draft picks and Todd Pinkston was an early second round pick, so someone in the front office thought that they had talent. But clearly, in the 5-year Andy Reid (and Donovan McNabb) era, no WR has stood out or emerged as a true WR1.

Why that happened is a bit of a mystery. Is it the offensive system? Is it the play calling? Is it the running game? Is it the fact that RBs out of the backfield got a lot of receptions? Perhaps it's Donovan McNabb, a four-time Pro Bowler. Some of McNabb's critics have made a case that McNabb is not a very accurate passer. I don't know how to best measure QB accuracy, so I won't comment.

But since this is really about Terrell Owens, I can compare McNabb to Jeff Garcia, the QB that Owens has worked with the most. Both McNabb and Garcia have played 5 seasons: McNabb has completed 57% of his passes with a 6.2 yard per attempt average; Garcia has completed 61% of his passes with a 7.0 yard per attempt average. McNabb has had 87 TD passes with 49 interceptions, while Garcia has had 113 TD passes with 56 interceptions. In my mind, the numbers support Garcia being a better passer.

Positives

• Immensely talented WR that four times has ranked as a Top 3 fantasy WR and scored double digit TDs
• Ranked #1 in the NFL the past 5 years in total yards after catch (2,364) and YAC average (5.5)
• Had the highest fantasy PPG average of any WR over the 2000-2002 timeframe

Negatives

• Switching teams has historically been detrimental to overall performance of stud WRs
• The 49ers' system has been much more favorable to WRs in recent years than Philadelphia's has been
• Owens will likely miss the chemistry and passing abilities of former teammate Jeff Garcia

Final Thoughts

Last year, Dennis Erickson took over as head coach of the 49ers. With a new coach but with the same QB and mostly the same supporting cast on offense, Owens' numbers fell from his 3-year average of 228 fantasy points down to 164 fantasy points-a 28% decline and that was with only one variable changed.

Now Owens is going to a new team, a new (for him) system, a new QB, and an environment that has not been kind to WR production. A few years ago, our FBG Doug Drinen did a study on established fantasy receivers switching teams. He found that players that had scored at least 140 fantasy points on their old team had their production drop by 30% on their new team (granted, a small sample size). If we consider Terrell Owens' annual scoring baseline as 228 points, a 30% reduction would yield a season very similar to last year, and I think somewhere in that range will be where T.O. will fall this year.

I forget how the saying goes exactly, but I believe it's, "Those that ignore history are destined to repeat it." I suspect Owens will rank in the WR 10-12 range just like last year. I also suspect that Owens will be an early third round draft pick and will again be selected as a Top 5 WR. There are probably worse things in life than getting the 10th ranked WR from the 5th WR drafted, but I know I wouldn't want 75 cents on a dollar, and that's probably what will happen if you take Owens where he's gone in drafts over the last several years.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"I look for Terrell and Donovan to struggle early in the season. There will be some games where they only hook up a few times for say 60 yards and the chat boards will be buzzing about what is the problem. But as the year goes on, I look for these two to get comfortable with each other, and eventually getting the last laugh as they win the NFC East and the NO. 1 seed."

Winning IS Everything:
"Owens has elite size and top notch RAC skills that help him make up for the lack of off the line speed. He knows how to use that size and strength to separate. I am not worried about the new team issue, Laveranues Coles taught us last year that it can be done, and Terrell is a MUCH better WR. I expect a return to the top 5."

Repressed Dennis:
"If you look at San Fran, they've had a great passing game ever since Bill Walsh, and the system has worked extremely well through many personnel changes. I think that Owens may have looked better in San Fran than he will anywhere else. I don't think he'll get quite as many goalline looks in Philly, and I think that teams will be able to take him away more in coverage in Philly than they were in San Fran. The Niners always had great schemes to get their primary guy the ball in a position to do something with it, and McNabb/Philly simply has not shown that."

gman8343:
"As a Giant fan I hate to say this: I think Owens is going to be huge this year. This guy is on the team he wants, with the quarterback he wants, and they'll be gunning for that elusive Super Bowl People on this site seem to be down on McNabb, but I think he's a great QB and he'll click with Owens fast."

Biabreakable:
"I am really not that optimistic about Terrell Owens this year. I think the transition and McNabb's lack of accuracy is going to hurt his overall performance. He may even get frustrated at some point and have a hissy fit. I imagine this is how some owners may feel about drafting him so highly when he does not perform like an elite WR this year if that is their expectation. I will evaluate how he performs this year and take a fresh look at the possibility of him achieving this status in 2005 but I believe he will fall short this year."

Terrell Owens Projections