Jason Wood's Thoughts

The Chicago Bears are finally moving in a new direction after stagnating under the Dick Jauron regime. Jauron, a vaunted defensive mind, failed to prove his mettle as a head coach. Equally disappointing, particularly for fantasy football owners, was OC John Shoop's play calling; which was arguably the most predictable and conservative play calling since the advent of the 16-game schedule.

It's understandable that Bears fans would be excited for the first time in a few years thanks to a new coaching staff and the promise of more aggressive innovative play on both sides of the field. HC Lovie Smith, who made his mark as a defensive assistant in Tampa Bay and St. Louis, has imparted the offense to first-time offensive coordinator Terry Shea. Shea, a protégé of Dick Vermeil in Kansas City, plans on bringing along the same wide-open passing attack that Vermeil so expertly oversaw in St. Louis and Kansas City.

In terms of personnel, one of the first moves GM Jerry Angelo made this offseason was signing Thomas Jones to a multi-year deal and declaring him the ideal fit for the Bears new offense. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen, but there's little question that Jones will get every opportunity to be the multifaceted weapon that many thought he would be coming out of college.

With Jones getting the majority of the first team work, where does that leave Anthony "A-Train" Thomas? Some expected Thomas to be waived or traded this offseason, as he's never been one of Angelo's favorites despite enjoying two 1,000 yard seasons in his first three years. However, as training camp begun both Thomas and Jones were on the roster; it seems the team correctly understands that a) RB depth is a precious commodity and b) Thomas Jones isn't exactly a stone-cold lock to be the all-purpose back team executives envision.

The Bears are a 2005 story, forget about 2004

Bears fans probably don't want to hear this, but it's unreasonable to expect great strides from this team in 2004. Whether Smith, Shea and DC Ron Rivera were the right hires or not (I think they were), history suggests that this season won't be a banner year given their collective inexperience. The Bears coaching staff is the least experienced in the league. Not one coach has called an NFL game before; not one. You cannot underestimate the learning curve that goes into first time coaching. You see rookie coaches make seemingly avoidable mistakes in clock management and in key scenarios all the time, it's part of the job. However, usually a team has one or two former head coaches/coordinators on staff to serve as advisors, the Bears don't.

Additionally, saying you're planning on implementing the Rams/Chiefs offense and doing so are VERY different things. If I've heard one person I've heard 100 say "the Bears are going to use the Chiefs/Rams offense, major fantasy sleeper potential!"

Not so fast folks. Remember that imitation is the fondest form of flattery. Just because Marty Mornhinweg implemented the "West Coast Offense" in Detroit didn't mean he would see the same success as the 49ers or Packers did under Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren. OC Terry Shea has never been more than a QB coach in that system, and his only head coaching experience was with Rutgers University, a perennial Big East collegiate doormat.

And finally, one of the reasons the offensive system in KC and St. Louis was so effective was because they had the personnel. The Rams and Chiefs have outstanding offensive lines, all-world running backs and at least one additional top flight receiver. Can you say the same of the Bears?

Thomas Jones: Do we buy into 3.5 years of history or his last four games?

For three straight seasons (beginning his rookie year), Thomas Jones was atop the RB depth chart in Arizona at the start of training camp. And three straight seasons he failed to hold onto his job. What's disconcerting about Jones' failure wasn't so much that he was beaten out, but by whom. Michael Pittman and Marcel Shipp, average NFL talents at best, were the ones to displace him. Jones blamed a litany of issues on his failures, including poor eyesight (he's had Lasik surgery) and a few minor albeit recurrent injuries. Then last season, having been jettisoned by the Cardinals, Jones signed on in Tampa Bay and found himself backing up Michael Pittman again. Jones wasn't used much for most of the season but finally got a shot at a full time workload in the final four games of the season. His numbers were decent in the limited time frame:

• 84 carries



• 364 yards



• 4.3 yards per carry



• 77 yards receiving



• 1 touchdown

It's those numbers, and his collegiate pedigree that are the only things which would explain Jerry Angelo hand picking Jones as the "Priest Holmes" of this offense; but is he being foolish? I'm not sure to be honest. Jones certainly seemed like a potentially great back coming out of college, but in four years he's had one-fourth of one strong season, and in those four games he only went over 100 yards rushing once. It seems like quite a stretch to project Jones into the "franchise back" category based on such little on-field success.

Add to that an offensive line that isn't as good as the Rams or Chiefs, a young unproven quarterback, and a receiving corps that doesn't appear to have the speed or ability to get separation (hallmarks of the Vermeil offense) and I just don't see this team clicking on all cylinders until such time as a) some more offensive pieces are brought into the mix through the draft and free agency, b) the line jells, c) Grossman matures and d) the coaching staff gets some experience under their belts.

OK, so should I draft Anthony Thomas?

If I'm so skeptical about Thomas Jones, would it make sense to target Anthony Thomas? Considering Thomas is going 45th in mock drafts, I think you could do far worse than roster him as your 4th or 5th running back. At worst, he sits behind Thomas Jones all season and you look to waive him when a more attractive player is available off waivers. At best, Jones either fails to produce or gets injured, and the Bears have no choice but to go back to Thomas; who has shown himself to be a capable inside runner and able bodied goal line option.

Positives for Jones

• Enters camp as the unquestioned starter and feature back of the new Bears offense



• With Rex Grossman learning his craft, expect plenty of dump off passes to Jones; a major plus in leagues that reward points per reception



• A-Train Thomas is clearly out of favor with GM Jerry Angelo

Negatives for Jones

• Thomas has actually been more productive for a longer period of time than Jones



• Thomas is a bruising inside runner able to make yards after contact, and is a viable goal line threat



• Thomas Jones' injury history and failed attempts to hold onto the lead job in the past mean Thomas has a very real opportunity

Positives for Thomas

• Four years and four failed attempts to be the lead back despite questionable competition



• Minor injuries and eyesight issues have robbed him of the skill set he showed in college (he was a top 10 selection in the 2000 NFL Draft)



• Changes in the offensive line, coaching staff, and quarterback position on top of Jones insertion into the offense mean plenty of big-time growing pains in 2004

Negatives for Thomas

• Thomas is not considered to possess the well rounded skill set required of a lead back in the Vermeil/Shea offensive system; he's limited as a receiver and lacks the speed to get around the corner



• Thomas is clearly a distant 2nd on the depth charts midway through training camp



• Thomas hasn't stayed healthy, missing at least two games in each of three seasons

Final Thoughts

Thomas Jones is going 24th in mock drafts; which is about where I project his year end statistics to rank him. However, I don't expect Jones to find his way onto many of my rosters. His history in this league is far too spotty against far too mediocre competition to warrant serious consideration as a breakout candidate in my view. People always point out that Priest Holmes wasn't an impact player before he was put into the Vermeil offense either but that comparison is misguided. Holmes was an undrafted free agent out of college and was never given the opportunity to be a starter. Jones was the 7th overall pick in 2000 and was expected to be a franchise runner. He had opportunities and failed to capitalize, big difference. Anthony Thomas, on the other hand, has shown himself to be a good, but not great back in a very conservative Bears offense. Injuries are a concern for him as is his place in the Bears hierarchy thanks to a GM who dislikes Thomas for whatever reasons. I wouldn't hesitate to pass on Jones in the 3rd/4th round for another back and then pick up Thomas in the late rounds as your 4th or 5th back recognizing that he could be playing by hook or by crook at some point. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

The Bears made a lot of changes this offseason, and one of the major ones was the acquisition of much-maligned RB Thomas Jones from Tampa Bay. The net result of this transaction was that Jones was brought in to supplant Anthony Thomas as the starting RB, with Jones being touted as a better fir for the new offensive scheme being implemented in Chi-town.

No matter how you slice it, A-Train got a raw deal on this one. He may not have been Walter Payton, but he was relatively productive in his three years with the Bears, frequently running behind an injured and dysfunctional OL.

Looking only at the stats, the Bears may regret their decision. Thomas has bettered Jones in almost every offensive category that is worth reviewing.

• Career YPC: Thomas 4.0, Jones 3.8



• Career YPR: Thomas 6.9, Jones 6.7



• TD Per Game: Thomas 0.49, Jones 0.22



• Touches Per TD: Thomas 41.6, Jones 49.7

ADVANTAGE: Thomas

While A-Train has had more opportunities to touch the ball than Jones, he's done more with those opportunities.

Here's how they've both done compared to their teammates:

Jones YPC vs. Team's YPC:

• 2000: Jones 3.3 YPC vs other RB on Arizona 3.9 YPC



• 2001: Jones 3.4 YPC vs other RB on Arizona 3.6 YPC



• 2002: Jones 3.7 YPC vs other RB on Arizona 4.3 YPC



• 2003: Jones 4.6 YPC vs other RB on TB 3.4 YPC

A-Train YPC vs Team's YPC:

• 2001: A-Train 4.3 YPC vs other RB on Chicago 3.6 YPC



• 2002: A-Train 3.4 YPC vs other RB on Chicago 3.4 YPC



• 2003: A-Train 4.2 YPC vs other RB on Chicago 3.5 YPC

ADVANTAGE: Thomas

Last year was the first season that Jones actually out produced his teammates. It's easy to see why he had a tough time earning a starting job. Thomas, on the other hand, has either equaled or bettered the output of the other RB in Chicago.

Those in Jones's camp are quick to point out his strong finish to his 2003 campaign. He had 3 solid games at the end of the year that netted him 71 carries for 296 yards and a TD. But when you consider that Jones' games came against N.O. (ranked 27th against the run), Houston (ranked 23rd), and Atlanta (ranked 29th)-all out of the playoff picture, suddenly it does not seem like that great of an accomplishment.

However, A-Train ended the year with 66 carries, 281 yards rushing, and 2 TD in 3 games, yet no one is said much to promote Thomas' "breakthrough" performance. (To be fair, A-Train's games came against Min, KC, and Was, also not the greatest run defenses.)

Positives for Jones

• He apparently again looks like the RB that made him the 7th overall pick in the 2001 NFL draft



• Jones signed a four-year, $10.5 million contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus. Thomas will make $515,000 this year



• The Bears for now have selected Jones "as the chosen one" to lead their new offense

Negatives for Jones

• Previously could not beat out Michael Pittman (twice) or Marcel Shipp to be a starting NFL RB. His track record of success is very short. His reputation as an underachiever extends back several years



• He's never had more than 161 touches in a season. Only 5 games in 55 games played of 20+ carries



• Has a PO'd A-Train back at the station chomping at the bit to get his starting job back

Positives for Thomas

• Has already showed on the field and statistically to be the better RB in prior game conditions



• The Bears would not listen to trade offers for Thomas, even rejecting interest from Miami after Ricky Williams retired



• Could this mean that the Bears are either higher on Thomas than they led to believe or that they are not as enamored or confident with Jones as they were earlier in the offseason?

Negatives for Thomas

• Has very little support from the Bears' front office and coaching staff to regaining his starting job back



• Injured an abdominal muscle early in training camp and may not see a lot of preseason practice time



• Considered by many (who have not looked at the stats) to lack quickness, agility, and pass catching ability

Final Thoughts

All of the stats at this stage of the game are pretty much moot, as the Bears front office has made their bed and now must lie in it. Leading up to the preseason, the Bears have since labeled Jones as their #1 and Thomas as their #1A, with some sort of plan to give both backs a decent workload but Jones with the majority. There has even been some talk of utilizing both backs in the backfield at the same time, Thomas getting short yardage and goal line work, and Jones getting a lot more work as a receiver and A-Train more work solely on the ground. What this means in practical reality is very hard to decipher, and we may not know until the season starts what will happen in this RB battle.

No matter who gets the majority of the workload, there are other factors that will likely limit the success of both of these RB. The Bears OL has been no more than a patchwork quilt the last few years. They have made some upgrades, but they are still thin in the OL.

The Bears also are starting an inexperienced QB while implementing a new system after hiring a new head coach. None of those have traditionally been great predictors of offensive success, at least not early on. The other offensive skill players are also a far cry from the ones in the offensive system being emulated from the one in St. Louis in Kansas City.

Add it all up, and the talk of Thomas Jones becoming the next Priest Holmes and posting a 2,000 yard season (total yardage) with double digit TD seems very unlikely.

In terms of breaking down the workload, Jones will probably start the season with 75% of the touches and A-Train 25%. But as the season progresses, I envision the breakdown getting much closer to even. There is always a chance that the Bears come to their senses and reinsert Thomas as the starter, but that pill would be too much to swallow given the amount of money they shelled out to Jones.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Winning IS Everything:
"Thomas Jones: A high first round pick that has failed to deliver. I think he is in a position to succeed. He has the talent and the confidence of the coaching staff that is building this offense so suit him. Some will say he has done nothing to impress. He was also shackled on teams with poor passing games until last year. I see a good season on the horizon.

Anthony Thomas: Has done well, but not spectacular. I saw him in training camp last year and he is only slightly above average, and not built to suit this offense. I think he will see spot duty but could have upside if Jones blows this chance."

TheDirtyWord:
"This situation is tough to predict IMO. Looking at Thomas Jones last 4 games as a Buc...projecting that over a 16 game schedule, this is what he could have done.

336 carries, 1456 yards 4 TDs; 44 receptions, 308 yards, 0 TDs

But in two of those game (Atlanta & Houston), he faced the 29th & 31st ranked rushing defense in the NFL. So even if you buy into this type of projection methodology...it's tainted because of the level of defense he faced (he won't play 8 defenses in 2004 in the bottom 8th in the NFL in terms of rushing defense)."

KKrew:
"Thomas Jones or Anthony Thomas? Kinda like choosing between nails or glass as a chewing gum replacement? Oh well, one of them will have to carry more load than the other. What will Lovie do? I dunno."

Pigskin Fanatic:
"I believe TJ will be the starter with A-Train spelling him during the first few weeks, but A-Train will finish the season as the starter due to injuries to TJ and this will result in a lackluster performance for both. TJ has had the opportunity to be the starter in each of the 4 years he has been in the league. In that span his best year in AZ netted 138/511/2 while starting 9 games of the 2002 season, and in TB 137/627/3 while starting 3 games. This seems to me like a case of "if he's coming out he would have done so already.""

Spartans Rule:
"I'm a believer in Thomas Jones... sort of. I think he has talent and was hurt by playing in Arizona. I think he's a good fit for the Bears and will see the majority of the work.

That said, Jones has a career high of 138 carries. I don't think he's the type of workhorse back that can grind out yards and rack up 300 carry seasons. A-Train will see the field quite a bit to help keep Jones fresh all year."

Thomas Jones Projections

Anthony Thomas Projections