Jason Wood's Thoughts

There are too many risks to justify making Tim Rattay part of your draft plans as anything more than a QB3, in my opinion. Although I think Rattay is equipped to be an above average NFL quarterback (and mentioned him as someone to watch last year) so much has changed in San Francisco that I fear Rattay's opportunity for outsized success may be limited.

1. Rattay's Injury (Make that Injuries) - Facing a salary cap purging, the 49ers decided to part ways with 3-time Pro Bowl QB Jeff Garcia this offseason. Concurrently, HC Dennis Erickson anointed Tim Rattay the team's starting QB for 2004. Unfortunately not soon after, Rattay suffered a tear in his groin at the team's first minicamp practice. He underwent surgery and vowed to be ready for training camp, an absolute must for him to get the snaps required of the opening day starter. The good news is that his recovery went well enough for Rattay to return to the field in the opening days of training camp. The bad news is that immediately thereafter, he suffered forearm tendonitis that has sidelined him through the first two weeks of camp. We shouldn't underestimate the significance of Rattay's inability to participate in training camp; remember that rookie QBs often lose entire years of playing time when they hold out for a week or two; the learning curve is too steep at the QB position to sustain a prolonged absence before you've mastered the playbook.



2. New Offensive System - One of the more quiet yet significant changes this offseason in San Francisco was the abandonment of Bill Walsh's long-revered West Coast Offense. With Dennis Erickson firmly in control and a youth movement underway, the team is implementing a more traditional passing game that throws downfield off play action rather than dink and dunking the ball all over the place. Installing a new system raises concerns on several levels. Can Rattay succeed in a downfield passing scheme? Does he have the arm? Do the 49ers have the requisite speed at receiver to make this scheme work? Will the offensive linemen be able to sustain blocks long enough to let plays develop? Quite a few questions and no answers that would instill confidence in Rattay's chances at fantasy stardom.



3. New Receiving Corps - I personally believe Brandon Lloyd has the makings of an NFL star but it would be remiss of me to not acknowledge the risk associated with Lloyd and the other 49ers receivers. By letting Terrell Owens and Tai Streets go this year, the team is banking on Lloyd and at least one other receiver from the likes of Cedrick Wilson, Rashaun Woods, Curtis Conway and Derrick Hamilton; there's not a sure thing in the bunch.



4. It's all about Kevan Barlow - This is finally Kevan Barlow's team. Gone is veteran Garrison Hearst, gone is Terrell Owens, gone is the West Coast offense. The 49ers best (but slim) chance of staying competitive this year rests on the legs of Barlow, who should get the ball 20+ times a game; which also translates into less passing attempts for Rattay and company.



5. Ken Dorsey, does he have a shot? - Coming out of college, Ken Dorsey was considered a career backup at best despite being one of the most successful collegiate players of his generation. Quietly, Dorsey added weight to his skinny frame (he weighed in at 220 pounds at the start of camp) and according to observers, it's had a requisite impact on his throwing strength. Dorsey wouldn't be the first QB from a big college program to come into the league, add strength and prove that he was more than a product of the system. Tom Brady followed that exact script not long ago. To be fair, the 49ers coaches have steadfastly maintained that when Rattay is healthy, the job is his; however, can we honestly say that Rattay is that much better a QB than Ken Dorsey? Even the argument that Rattay has more experience falls short of reality considering that both have been under Dennis Erickson's watch as long and are both learning a new system this year. In the two weeks Rattay has been sidelined, Dorsey has made the most of the situation and at the very least, proven that he won't be an unmitigated disaster if he needs to play this year.

Positives

• 49ers management has stood by Rattay despite Dorsey's solid play in his stead and Rattay's injury-induced absence



• The team is going to be in the position of playing catch up many times this year, meaning Rattay could rack up some solid fantasy stats during 'garbage time'



• Rattay is an accurate, fundamentally sound passer with good footwork and an adequate arm to make the majority of throws required

Negatives

• Ken Dorsey has played well in Rattay's absence, and added 20 pounds, oh, and he played for Dennis Erickson's old program at Miami



• Rattay has suffered back to back injuries which have robbed him of valuable time getting acclimated to his role as a starter



• The 49ers are rolling out a new offensive system, a new coordinator, a new receiving corps, a revamped offensive line, and a new full time RB; that much change almost assuredly means the team will be inconsistent in the early part of the season

Final Thoughts

So while I believe Rattay, when healthy, has the requisite arm strength, footwork and accuracy to be a solid NFL starter; I'm not sure the risks justify the rewards in what's sure to be an uneven season in San Francisco. The only constant this year will be Kevan Barlow, but the passing game will have fits and starts no matter who is under center as the team adjusts to a new offensive coordinator, a new offensive system, new receivers and a rebuilt offensive line. Roster Rattay as a late round QB3 and hope for more, but don't put yourself in the position of counting on him in 2004.

Marc Levin's Thoughts:

It is hard to find positives about a player we know very little about. Like most of the San Francisco 2004 offense, we will be learning about them as we go into the season. That's what happens when you use young, inexperienced players to replace the house-cleaning done by ditching last year's opening day starters at QB, RB, TE, WR, and 2 of the 5 OL positions.

Rattay's scouting report indicates a QB who is a pocket passer and who will not be giving the team the mobility that last year's starter, Jeff Garcia, provided. It didn't help any in figuring out how he is fitting in as the starter that Rattay injured his groin before minicamps. As of this writing, Rattay was not expected back until a few weeks into training camp. Compound that with the fact that the current backup, Ken Dorsey, is similar in style to Rattay, has had very good minicamps. so far, and will get to work with the first string through the early part of training camp.

Offseason work with new WRs (and everyone on the 49er receiving team should be considered "new") is essential for an inexperienced QB. Plus, the team ditched the west coast offense it has been employing for what seems like forever. They did this to accommodate their new passers. From reports about what the 49ers will do in the passing game, there is a glimmer of hope for a decent passing year from the team. The team will focus on quick decision-making, audible plays at the line (thus relying on the QBs' ability to read defenses), and more passes down the seams and downfield.

Since this is a new offense with a bunch of new starters, everyone's learning curve should be similar. And, the team has a host of young, talented receiving targets. Finally, this offense could be effective even if teams attempt to load up 8-in-the-box against starting RB Kevan Barlow. Pocket passers throwing at gaps and downfield tend to be able to break down a defense playing at the line - that is, if the QB gets sufficient protection.

And, that will be the key to the 9ers' season. All the talk about the inexperience of the starters and the heavy use of Barlow turn on the play of the offensive line. If the OL can consistently open holes for Barlow against 8-man fronts, the offense will move the ball, will bring the safety up, and will start to find some room for the receivers. And, if the OL can hold off those blitzes and up-the-middle bull rushes that are inevitably employed against pocket passers, the QB should have enough time to find the mismatch in the secondary. If.

In fantasy terms, Rattay's best value is the fact that he is available very late and has optimal use in either best starter or two QB required leagues. He should be better than, or at least as good as, other late drafted QBs, such as Kyle Boller, Quincy Carter, or whoever ends up starting for the Giants, Dolphins, or Chargers. That assumes, of course, that he can remain healthy. In his limited play for the 49ers in 2003, Rattay was quite efficient. He had a pretty high 7.25 YPA, completed over 60% of his passes, and threw 7 TDs versus only 2 INTs - he had no games where he threw more INTs than TDs.

That is great efficiency from a backup QB and probably was a big factor in Garcia's departure. In his most extensive starting work - in weeks 9 though 12 - Rattay was able to spread the ball around to a variety of receivers and he threw TD passes to four different players (though 3 of the 6 TDs he threw in that span went to Owens). In essence, there is reason to believe that Rattay, given 16 games as the starter, will spread the ball well and will be efficient within the offense. The main concerns will be his health and his ability to deal with what defenses will be throwing at him.

Positives

• Good pocket passer who demonstrated an ability in 2003 to be efficient spreading the ball around



• Has the support of what should be a good running game to take the pressure off



• With the complete overhaul in the offense, it is likely he will be allowed to make mistakes, learn as he goes, and grow into a leader of the team, rather than facing a quick hook if the team struggles



• The offense was redesigned to take advantage of Rattay's unique skills and immobility

Negatives

• Was his effectiveness in 2003 a product of being the backup or actual skill at the QB spot?



• Obvious problems of installing a new offense with completely new personnel. It could take well more than half a year for the passing game to start clicking



• There is intense pressure on the offensive line in the new system, a line with two new starters and a history over the last few years of injuries

Final Thoughts

I don't have Rattay as a target in very many leagues. He may turn out to be good or he may not. His best use in most redrafts is as a flyer backup QB. Unless you habitually carry three QBs, I am unsure if I would consider him at all except in desperation. Finally, for dynasty purposes, he may be a good depth QB for your roster on the chance he is the man for the future in San Francisco, but he could as easily be replaced in the 2005 draft or by Dorsey. In all, for 2004, consistent fantasy performances should not be expected, especially early in the year as the offense must gel before it can excel. While there are some pieces in place for the San Francisco QB to be an occasional fantasy force, the emphasis on Barlow, the early injury that deprived Rattay of an opportunity to familiarize himself with new personnel and a new playbook, and the likely growing pains of an offensive overhaul raise more questions than possibilities.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

TheDirtyWord:
"This was a very important offseason for Rattay. While he looked great in a back-up role last season, you need look no further than Doug Johnson to see how worthless that currency can be.

When you are the starter...it's a different animal and with his, as Sam Malone might say "groin injury", valuable preparation time both during the offseason and during training camp has and will be lost. And amidst all this, the 49ers are switching offenses this year. No WCO in Candlestick for the first time in a generation."

HuskyLaw:
"Last season 49er fans got their closest look at Rattay for a few games when Garcia was hurt or ineffective. His stats for the games where he got major playing time were:

• Week 4 @MIN -- 12 comp. out of 18 attempts for 146 yards, 1 TD, 8.11 YPA (Garcia started the game)



• Week 9 STL -- 19 comp. out of 29 attempts for 236 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 8.14 YPA



• Week 11 PIT -- 21 comp. out of 27 attempts for 254 yards, 2 TDs, 9.41 YPA



• Week12 @GNB -- 14 comp. out of 30 attempts for 142 yards, 1 TD. 1 INT, 4.73 YPA"

Tim Rattay Bandwagon Driver:
"I don't believe Rattay's starting job is in jeopardy. The organization signed him to a 3 yr deal last season and I think they know what they have in him. Keep in mind this was done before he started any games. He played like a veteran every game with the exception of Green Bay. I don't know the exact figures but I'm sure he hit 7 or more different players in every game he started. He can definitely spread the ball around and watching him do it consistently last season doesn't really worry me about this years receiving core."

ActionHero:
"The 49ers lost 1/3 of their starters including both Owens and Streets -> The offense could struggle mightily…

Rattay had groin surgery a few months ago and will miss at least part of training camp -> Could take him a while to get in physical and mental shape…

Conclusion: I'm staying away from Rattay this year"

Tim Rattay Projections