Jason Wood's Thoughts

Todd Heap is the kind of tight end that Giants fans hope Jeremy Shockey can be. Although he may not get the national attention of his New York counterpart (probably because he keeps his mouth shut off the field), Heap has proven himself among the very best at his position in a short time in the league. He's gone to two consecutive Pro Bowls (his first two years as a starter) and has finished 1st and 3rd among fantasy TEs, in 2002 and 2003 respectively. He's a punishing blocker, has an uncanny knack to find the seams in zone defenses, and has the hands and route running discipline of a wide receiver; it's nearly impossible for a linebacker to cover him.

What should impress you the most about Heap though is how he's managed to put up dominant fantasy numbers in the face of a HORRENDOUS offensive situation. Two years ago, Heap finished as the top rated fantasy TE (yes, better than Gonzo) with 68 receptions, 836 yards and 6 touchdowns. What's impressive about his performance was that the Ravens ranked 26th in passing yards and took only 479 attempts; yet Heap was dominant.

But as impressive as his 2002 season was, it simply can't compare to what he accomplished last year. At first blush, his numbers don't seem outlandish:

• 57 receptions (3rd among TEs)


• 693 yards (3rd among TEs)


• 3 touchdowns (T-9th)


• 87 fantasy points (3rd)

But when you realize the conditions under which Heap accomplished his 3rd place finish, it becomes apparent how talented he really is.

• Baltimore had just 414 passing attempts last season; that not only ranked dead last in the league; but it marks the 2nd lowest total in the past three years



• Baltimore's 2,517 passing yards ranked 32nd by a decent margin; and that marks the 3rd lowest total in the last three years



• The team's conglomeration of QBs completed a miserable 52.7% of their passes; resulting in a league low 218 completions

Despite playing on one of the worst passing teams in modern football history, Heap managed to make enough plays to finish in the Top 3 at his position; remarkable. He accounted for 26% of the team's receptions, 28% of its passing yards, and 19% of its touchdown receptions.

So, can we expect improvement this season? Let's look at history; the law of averages suggests that the Ravens virtually HAVE to improve in the passing game. The team had the most pronounced run/pass ratio in the last decade and this offseason emphasis was put on improving the passing game. At the coaching level, Jim Fassel was brought on board as a consultant (i.e., QB coach without the title) and has worked with QB Kyle Boller exclusively. Boller, who was sidelined for a good portion of his rookie year, remains a work in progress but he's starting from such a low base that it's unreasonable to think he won't improve a bit. And on the personnel front the team added steady Kevin Johnson at WR; not someone who's going to suddenly overtake Heap as the main playmaker, but someone who should help the offense move the chains and sustain a few more drives.

Positives

• Heap has excellent size (6'5", 252 lbs), the hands of a WR, and runs precise routes; he also has a knack for finding the space in zone coverage



• It's impossible to think the Ravens won't improve to some degree this year in the passing game



• Heap will be among the most targeted TEs in the league once again; he remains the team's best receiver at any position

Negatives

• Improvement or not, this is a team that should continue to be dominated by the running game



• Heap's TD production last season took a step back, he only caught 19% of the team's TDs despite being responsible for almost 30% of the catches



• Defenses are sure to key on Heap as the lone game breaker in the receiving corps

Final Thoughts

Todd Heap is a special player. He was put in the least conducive situation possible last year and yet finished 3rd in fantasy points (and made the Pro Bowl). With Kyle Boller ready to take baby steps toward becoming a legitimate NFL passer; Heap stands to be Boller's security blanket in the way Frank Wycheck was for Steve McNair and Ben Coates was for Drew Bledsoe. Any improvement, however marginal, in the passing game will result in Heap's numbers moving higher. You can legitimately view last season's totals as the baseline for projecting Heap; the only question is how much better can he be? Of all the "elite" tight ends, Heap is the one outside of Gonzo that I think justifiably merits consideration in the 4th/5th round of 12-team leagues. That said; I'm entrenched in the camp that believes if you don't draft Gonzalez, you should wait for your tight end. Remember that in a typical year, the difference between the 4th and 10th best fantasy TEs is one point per game.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Todd Heap has the hands and body control of a wide receiver. And for the Ravens, that's a good thing, since the team is generally lacking in WR talent. Heap has the speed to beat linebackers in coverage, and the size to create matchup problems for safeties. Teams cannot cover him effectively one-on-one. When he splits out wide, defenses often put both a cornerback and a safety on him.

Heap uses his size and strength to his advantage. He shields defenders with his body, creating space for himself to catch the ball. He also jumps well, and can go up over a defender to make the catch.

Heap was actually the top fantasy TE in 2002 (ahead of Tony Gonzalez and Jeremy Shockey) with 836 yards receiving and six touchdowns. He took a step back last year, collecting 693 yards receiving and only three touchdowns. Part of his decline in production can be attributed to Anthony Wright's taking over the quarterbacking duties in the last seven games of the season. In his first nine games, with Boller at the helm, Heap averaged 50 yards per game. In the final seven games, with Wright under center, Heap averaged only 35 yards a game. Prorating Heap's stats with Boller out over a 16-game season gives him 62 catches for 795 yards and 3.6 TDs. In terms of fantasy points per game, Heap did 44% better with Boller at quarterback than with Wright. So there is reason to think Heap could reach his 2002 numbers again if Boller can stay healthy all year.

Positives

• Fantastic athlete with speed, jumping ability, and hands



• Will have Kyle Boller back at QB, which is an improvement over Anthony Wright



• Is the featured receiver in the Ravens' passing attack; led the team in receptions in each of the last two years

Negatives

• The Ravens feature a run-first offense that revolves around Jamal Lewis



• Kyle Boller may be an improvement over Anthony Wright, but he isn't exactly Peyton Manning



• Heap's 2003 production was a step down from his 2002 production, which is not the direction you want to see in a young player

Final Thoughts

I'm a firm believer in waiting until at least the ninth round to grab a tight end. The difference between Todd Heap last year and much more ordinary tight ends like Jim Kleinsasser or Ernie Conwell was a mere 1.5 points per game. If you can wait an additional 5+ rounds at a position and experience only a 1.5 PPG drop off, you're doing fine. In the fourth round (where Heap is being taken), you can get a wide receiver like Steve Smith, Darrell Jackson, or Andre Johnson. Or you can get a running back like Curtis Martin or Chris Brown. Any of those guys can potentially help your team a lot more than any tight end can. In the days when Tony Gonzalez was a good 5 PPG ahead of the next tier of tight ends (see the year 2000), he was worth a very high draft pick. But this year there are plenty of guys available four to five rounds after Gonzalez/Heap/Shockey who could easily be within a couple points per game of the "Big 3": Boo Williams, Randy McMichael, Antonio Gates, Freddie Jones . . . and on up through the 16th round with the aforementioned Jim Kleinsasser. The value at TE this year is in the second half of the draft.

That said, if you're going to draft one of the Big 3 tight ends, Todd Heap is the safest pick in terms of health. Both Gonzalez and Shockey are recovering from foot injuries, and both have reported some soreness in training camp.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Banger:
"Heap is Boller's roommate and #1 target. Heap's numbers last year were significantly better with Boller (9 games - 31-417-2) as opposed to Wright (7 games 26-276-1). Boller was a rookie last year, had some growing pains and then got injured. I expect Boller to be better this year, not great but better and his #1 target Heap will be the main beneficiary."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"Another important note to keep in mind, Heap runs a lot of routes designed to go to him once they're inside the red zone. Last year I saw a few Td's just go off his finger tips as balls were a little too high or just behind him into a defender. With this being Boller's second season, those passes should be on target."

jcjets:
"In three years Heaps TDs are 1,6,3. Why people would project him over 6 TDs is beyond me, but anything is possible. Does having another WR in K. Johnson help or hurt Heap? Will T. Taylor ever be a threat to defenses...No."

Mapmaker:
"I think with the addition of Johnson @ WR1, the seasoning of Boller, the continued growth of T. Taylor WR2 and the game management and ball control style of play of the Ravens that Heap could post very good numbers this season and edge a little closer to the number 1 TE spot. In the 3 seasons he's played he's shown all the skills that are required to supplant Gonzalez as the leader of the TE pack."

Todd Heap Projections