Jason Wood's Thoughts

Tom Brady cemented his place among the quarterback elite by winning his 2nd Super Bowl in three years. This former 6th round draft choice (who backed up Drew Henson at Michigan incidentally) proved that he's got ice in his veins, performing at his best when the stakes are the highest.

That said, being an excellent NFL quarterback and being a desirable fantasy commodity are sometimes at odds. Seems counterintuitive you say? Well, consider Troy Aikman, for example. Aikman won 3 Super Bowls with the Cowboys and is considered a potential Hall of Famer; yet he only threw for 20+ touchdowns once in his 12-year career, which was also the only season he eclipsed 3,400 yards passing.

Some thought Tom Brady might be the same type of player; a guy who was the ultimate at managing the game but not necessarily reliable as a prolific fantasy producer. Yet, the numbers simply don't bear that out. In his first season as the Patriots' starter, there is no question that Bill Belichick limited Brady's workload, which is why he threw for just 2,843 yards and 18 touchdowns in 15 games. But the last two seasons, having full command of the playbook and the full confidence of the coaching staff, Brady has been a fantasy force:

• 2002 - 3,764 yards passing (6th in NFL), 28 TDs (1st), 6th place fantasy ranking


• 2003 - 3,620 yards passing (6th in NFL), 23 TDs (10th), 9th place fantasy ranking

I believe that as long as Bill Belichick and OC Charlie Weis are drawing up the game plan and Brady remains healthy, he'll easily be among the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks year in, year out. The Patriots benefit from the lack of a go-to guy in my opinion. Brady has learned to find the open receiver, and it's not uncommon to see him complete passes to seven or eight different receivers in the same game. Last season, no Patriots player had more than 57 receptions, but 10 players had at least 14 catches; that's balance.

But what about Corey Dillon, won't the Patriots run the ball a lot more in 2004?

It's difficult to argue against the Patriots addition of Corey Dillon. Dillon, while a malcontent in Cincinnati, is an unquestionably talented pure runner; and won't be allowed to act selfishly on a team that's the definition of "We Not Me." As long as Dillon knows his role (to be a contributor, not the star) he can look forward to a few deep playoff runs and potential Super Bowl appearances in the coming years.

Getting back to the run/pass ratio, I see no reason for it to change much with Dillon's addition. The Patriots threw the ball 538 times last season and ran the ball 473 times. The 53%/47% ration is in line with the NFL average; and there's no way Charlie Weis is going to stop calling Brady's number given the team's success over the last three seasons (if it ain't broke…).

What WILL change, in my view, is the productivity of the running attack. The Patriots were 12 in carries last season but only 30th in yards per attempt. That's where Dillon can help change matters. Net-net, if Dillon can bring the team's YPR to 4.0 or better; it will mean that many more sustained drives and red zone opportunities for Brady and the spread passing attack.

If you're not sure whether this will have a tangible impact on Tom Brady's prospects consider the following:

3rd (and 4th) and Long Passing Attempts (2003)

Tom Brady was put into the 3rd most 3rd and long situations of any NFL quarterback last season. Surprising when you consider how strong the Patriots were as a unit, and how productive Brady was; but not as surprising when you remember how ineffective the rushing attack was on a per carry basis.

Notice that Brady is the only player among the top 5 who played for a winning team, not a coincidence in my opinion. It's not an easy task to sustain drives and complete passes when opposing defenses can pin back their ears and come at you. If Dillon can get a few more yards in 1st and 2nd down, Brady will have an easier go of it in 2004; and that could (and should) lead to record yardage and TD production potentially.

Positives

• Brady has been a top 10 fantasy QB each of the last two seasons and returns the same deep, balanced receiving unit from a year ago



• The addition of Dillon should help the productivity of the entire offense, allowing more sustained drives and fewer 3rd and long situations



• Bill Belichick and Charlie Weis are arguably the most innovative and effective offensive minds in the NFL

Negatives

• Dillon's addition could ultimately change the run/pass ratio, our stated assumptions could prove incorrect



• Brady's lack of rushing production limits his potential to reach the very top of the fantasy QB hierarchy



• The offensive line underwent some changes, most notably the departure of Damien Woody

Final Thoughts

The more I analyze Tom Brady the more I believe he'll end up on quite a few of my teams. If you prefer to wait on your quarterbacks as I typically do, Brady should be on the short list of ideal fits for your team. If healthy he's a great bet to finish in the top 10, will be reasonably consistent, and if anything has an improved situation this year as the running game should limit his 3rd and long situations. Brady is the 12th QB selected in average draft results on Antsports.com and is going in the 7th round of 12-team drafts; that's a perfect slot to roster your QB if you stocked up on RB and WR in the first few rounds.

David Yudkin's Thoughts:

The problem many people have with Tom Brady is that he does look good playing, doesn't seem to post big stats, and plays on a team that wins a lot but not by a lot. In New England, of course, he's a god, but the rest of the country does not know much about Brady other than doing the quick assessment and subsequent determination that he can't be that good. And many people that have that opinion would be wrong.

Those in Brady's corner have compared him to the likes of Joe Montana and Troy Aikman, alluding to his great success in the win column but perhaps not so much in the fantasy production column. For starters, the New England Patriots are 40-12 with Tom Brady as their starting QB (including the post season). That's a .769 winning percentage, and the best all-time for any QB at that point in his career.

Certainly, the Patriots' success cannot all be attributed to Tom Brady, but he has consistently played well enough to win, hasn't had many key turnovers, and picks up the offense when it needs to. In the NFL, that is the definition of a good QB.

In fantasy land (which is really the only world that matters), Brady has ranked as fantasy's #6 and #9 QB the past two years. Most people would be surprised to see that he ranked that high. The main difference from 2002 to 2003 was about 75 fewer passing attempts. In those years, New England struggled to establish an effective running game, and that COULD change this year with the addition of Corey Dillon.

How Dillon will impact the offense this year remains to be seen, but it's easy to see the Patriots giving Dillon a lot of work late in the game to run out the clock should they continue to win at a steady rate.

Brady showed last year that he and the offense could crank up the offense if needed when the defense was not having a great game. Many of those games came on the road, as the defense played lights out most of the time at home. Brady posted 134-241-1578 with 7 TD at home and 183-286-2042 with 15 TD on the road. And with the Super Bowl away from Foxboro, he had a 32-48-354 game with 3 TD.

The biggest variable for Brady this season is how well the defense plays. If they play like the first half of the Super Bowl, Brady will not need to be John Elway. If they play like they did in the second half of the Super Bowl, Brady will have several 300-yard passing games.

If the Patriots have a weakness on a defense, it may be in the middle of the line and their rush defense. The Pats ranked 31st against the run in 2002 and improved all the way to 4th in 2003 after adding Ted Washington at nose tackle. Washington has since moved on to Oakland, potentially softening up the middle of the defensive line. The best case scenario for Brady's productivity numbers would be a good but not dominant defense that holds when it has to but keeps opponents in the game. That could happen.

The other factor to consider for Brady and company is that last year they won with a lot of injuries and without key players having career years. They did not have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver. Over the years, the opposite has typically been true-Super Bowl champions have often had few injuries and career years from their stars.

But the Patriots don't really have many stars (if any), they can hope for better health, and their key players could actually produce at a higher level than in previous years. I happen to think that this year the Patriots are primed to post better numbers than they have the past few years. That should help what will emerge as a very solid group of WR, and Dillon will be the back he was in Cincinnati but with more scoring chances.

Positives

• Plays on a proven winner that effectively develops creative schemes to keep the offense moving



• Recent variations of the offense have involved a greater percentage of pass plays versus running plays



• Has a solid receiving corps with Branch, Givens, Johnson, and Brown and Faulk out of the backfield

Negatives

• If the Pats defense is as good as last year, the offense might take the air out of the ball again and coast to narrow victories



• Probably not the most gifted athlete but relies on his smarts to be successful



• Does not have an established uber stud WR like Moss, Harrison, Holt, Owens, etc.

Final Thoughts

With the target squarely on the Patriots this year as world champs, we may get a chance to see Brady throw some passes on "real" downfield routes instead of dump-off passes this year. At some point, the rest of the NFL will come up with a game plan to thwart their tactics and seemingly simple yet complex game plans.

If the Patriots get behind or give up more points, Brady will be the one to benefit. I look for him to have his best season yet as a pro.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

fightingillini:
"Tom Brady, IMO, has been a decent, but not great fantasy QB....while I feel that he is a very good NFL QB. Manages the game very well...doesn't make many mistakes, takes what the defenses give him. With Dillon on board, I expect Brady's pass attempts to go down, but his yardage should be similar...I feel he will be able to get the ball more downfield when D's try and contain Dillon."

Phlash:
"I'm expecting a breakout year from Brady. His completion percentage and YPA should increase, but I don't see his attempts going down. New England is going to stick to their game plan - Pass to win, run to score TDs."

beto:
"I was talking about Brady yesterday when someone asked me who the best QB in the NFL was. Brady has the best mental skills in the NFL, he doesn't break down in crunch time. However, this doesn't really help him in fantasy and he makes a great #2 QB in a 12 teamer but just a marginal #1. I cannot believe this is just his 5th year in the league."

Tom Brady Projections